Alabama State vs. Arkansas-Pine BluffFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSimmons Bank Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| ARKA | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 57.5 60¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-2 on this game · −44% return
- Game total under 57.5+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UAPB's last-five offense produces 36.4 points and +0.16 EPA/play; Alabama State produces 25.8 and -0.06 EPA/play.
- UAPB's 0.17 last-five explosive-play rate is well above Alabama State's 0.10, supporting a competitive home performance.
- Most likely game script is UAPB's explosive offense keeping this within a field goal despite its defensive volatility.
- Most likely loss: Alabama State's stronger recent defense turns UAPB's offense inefficient and wins by four or more.
- Game total over 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raw scoring baseline is 62.9 points: Alabama State averages 26.5 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff 36.4, 7.4 above the board total.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s offense is +0.16 EPA/play with a 36.4-point average; its game profile supplies the primary over path.
- My projection is approximately 58.5 points and a 54% over probability versus the 46.95¢ contract price.
- Most likely loss: Alabama State’s negative offensive EPA (-0.03/play) persists and the game stays in the low 40s.
Questions
Who won Alabama State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff?
Alabama State won 21-15 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.