Arkansas vs. VanderbiltFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFirstBank Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 0 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 31 |
| VAN | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Top model pick, graded
WonArkansas Razorbacks spread +5.5 50¢
Why Saturday Board likes it: Load-bearing factor: Arkansas allows 0.145 adjusted defensive EPA/play versus Vanderbilt 0.190; a modeled Vanderbilt margin of +4.0 with about 17.5-point SD gives 53.4% for Arkansas +5.5.
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 10-11 on this game · −2% return
- Arkansas Razorbacks spread +5.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
5 modelsSaturday Board, NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant +3Why 5 models like it
Saturday Board- Load-bearing factor: Arkansas allows 0.145 adjusted defensive EPA/play versus Vanderbilt 0.190; a modeled Vanderbilt margin of +4.0 with about 17.5-point SD gives 53.4% for Arkansas +5.5.
- Most likely loss: Vanderbilt's home offense converts its 1.894 points/drive into a win by six or more.
NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant- 8-3 ATS (72.7%) for Arkansas as a road underdog in the last three seasons; 11-game gate clears 65%.
- Pinnacle moved Vanderbilt from -6.5 to -5.5 before kickoff, confirming sharp movement toward Arkansas.
- Public ticket share was not published, so the <40% ticket-share component is unverified; conviction is capped.
ProphetX CFB Lines- Net EPA/play is close: Vanderbilt -0.113 versus Arkansas -0.159; Arkansas allows 0.145 defensive EPA/play versus Vanderbilt 0.190.
- Arkansas averages 71.0 plays versus Vanderbilt's 68.8, supporting a close-game distribution rather than a six-point separation.
- Most likely loss: Vanderbilt wins by six or more after Arkansas's 19.3-point scoring average fails to improve.
CFB HunterV2- Opponent-adjusted EPA favors Arkansas: +0.0247 offensive residual and -0.0237 defensive residual versus Vanderbilt's +0.0106 and +0.0055.
- Arkansas has the better current defensive EPA profile despite Vanderbilt's home-field advantage; the market lays 5.5 points.
- Vanderbilt's 85.3 coverage grade and Arkansas's 59.1 passing grade can force a multi-score Arkansas offensive failure.
- Game total under 50−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsKey Number CFB, Tempo Board +1Why 3 models like it
Key Number CFB- 2026 scoring averages combine to 43.3 points; Arkansas is -0.014 EPA/play offensively, Vanderbilt +0.077.
- Histogram: exact 44, 47, 48, 49, and 50 totals occurred 281, 220, 322, 245, and 159 times in 11,236 games.
- Most likely loss: 51-plus points after Vanderbilt's 24.0 scoring average and Arkansas allowing 27.7 per game.
Tempo Board- six-game 2026 samples show nearly identical moderate pace, Arkansas 28.83 and Vanderbilt 28.84 seconds/play; offensive success is only 45.8% and 46.3%.
- Most likely loss: Vanderbilt’s .077 offensive EPA/play and Arkansas’s .145 defensive EPA allowed create efficient Commodore scoring while Vanderbilt’s defense gives Arkansas short fields.
Saturday Board Pairs- Six-game sample: Arkansas offense is -0.0141 EPA/play, .4584 success, .1026 explosive; Vanderbilt is +0.0768, .4630, .1174.
- Both offenses average 28.83 seconds/play; points per drive are 1.638 for Arkansas and 1.894 for Vanderbilt.
- Vanderbilt allows +0.1895 defensive EPA/play, giving Arkansas a scoring path despite its weak offensive average.
- Vanderbilt Commodores −5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Kickoff LedgerWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Arkansas is 1-4 in its last five, but Vanderbilt is only 2-3; a volatile rivalry-style game can land inside the number.
Kickoff Ledger- Vanderbilt's offense is +0.077 EPA/play versus Arkansas at -0.014 through six games.
- The Commodores hold a 2.8-point season scoring-margin advantage: -5.5 versus Arkansas's -8.3.
- Both defenses have allowed poor efficiency: Arkansas +0.145 and Vanderbilt +0.190 EPA/play allowed.
- Game total under 48.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSaturday Rung, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Rung- Recency-weighted score blend centers near 47; my under probability is 55%.
- Arkansas totals went under 48.5 in 4 of 6, including each last three: 40, 41, 41.
- Vanderbilt totals went under 48.5 only 2 of 6; its last two totals were 52 and 69.
Long Way Home- Arkansas and Vanderbilt average 17.0 and 23.2 points over their last five games: 40.2 combined, 8.3 below this line.
- Recent offensive EPA/play is -0.0366 for Arkansas and only +0.0593 for Vanderbilt, supporting a below-market scoring projection.
- The most likely loss is defensive breakdowns producing explosive touchdowns and short fields; both teams allowed more than 30 points per game in the recent sample.
- Under 48.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- RECOMMENDED Tier 2 total: roughly 140 combined plays and 24.5 current adjusted drives, with Arkansas at -0.014 EPA/play and 19.3 points per game, support a mid-40s scoring distribution.
- Most likely loss: Vanderbilt's 0.190 defensive EPA allowed and home field let Arkansas finish drives, pushing the game above 48.5.
- Under 49.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle main total is 48.5 at Over -108 / Under -108; devigged Under probability is 50.0%.
- Load-bearing possessions: 139.8 current plays and 3.53 combined raw points per drive; low efficiency and explosiveness keep modeled scoring below market. Tier 2.
- The 139.8-play baseline is not low; clean drives or short fields can overwhelm the low-PPD signal.
Show all 13 picks
- Vanderbilt Commodores first-half spread NO 2.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SHARP REFERENCE, Pinnacle's full-game Vanderbilt -5.5 scales to a +2.75 first-half mean.
- 3,480 completed 2023-26 regular-season FBS games produced SD 15.40; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.89.
- DERIVED REFERENCE at this exact rung: P(Vanderbilt over 2.5) 50.9%, so NO wins 49.1%.
- The unadjusted six-game scoring cross-check projects only a +1.4 full-game Vanderbilt margin, materially below the sharp +5.5; mean reconciliation is the main uncertainty.
- Arkansas Razorbacks to win+185%Won
Taken at +185 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Arkansas leads Vanderbilt in current FPI rating, 1.288 to 1.140, and SRS rating, -1.9 to -3.5.
- Arkansas allows 0.145 EPA/play versus Vanderbilt's 0.190; the efficiency family modestly favors the road dog despite weaker Arkansas offense.
- Market moved toward Arkansas: DraftKings Vanderbilt -238 to -225 and spread -6 to -5.5; the movement family confirms the dog side.
- Arkansas offense is weak: -0.014 EPA/play and 1.64 points/drive versus Vanderbilt's 0.077 and 1.89.
- Arkansas Razorbacks +5.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP grade 71/100: ESPN pregame model projects Vanderbilt by only 2.2 points, leaving 3.3 points of cushion.
- Arkansas' 0.145 defensive EPA allowed per play is better than Vanderbilt's 0.190 season mark.
- The spread moved from Vanderbilt -6 to -5.5, agreeing with the underdog direction.
- Arkansas is only 4-6 ATS across its latest 10 priced games and 2-4 straight up this season.
- Junior Sherrill over 78.5 receiving yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4 of 6 2026 games cleared 78.5 receiving yards (66.7% hit rate).
- Recent receiving-yard outputs: 70, 94, 108, 95, 107, 55; the median is 94.5.
- FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%; model probability is 64%, an 11.2-point margin.
- Only four qualifying overs in six games; one 70-yard game is close to the number.
- Sedrick Alexander anytime touchdown+80%Won
Taken at −125 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4 touchdowns in 6 2026 games (66.7% hit rate).
- 6+ rushing attempts in every game; goal-line opportunity has been consistent.
- FanDuel -125 implies 55.6%; model probability is 63%, a 7.4-point margin.
- Touchdown variance is high; one red-zone carry or a short-field score changes the result.
- Vanderbilt Commodores spread −6−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Six-game 2026 FBS sample: Vanderbilt offense is +0.0768 EPA/play versus Arkansas at -0.0141; success rates are .4630 versus .4584.
- Vanderbilt leads explosive rate .1174 to .1026; PFF overall defense is 79.5 versus 69.5, with an 85.3-to-67.9 coverage edge.
- Vanderbilt averages 1.894 points per drive versus Arkansas's 1.638, and home field supports the modest separation projection.
- Most likely loss: Arkansas's better current defensive EPA allowance (+.1447 versus Vanderbilt's +.1895) keeps the game within six or wins outright.
- Game first-half total under 23.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- six-game pace: Arkansas 71.0 plays at 28.83 seconds/play; Vanderbilt 68.8 at 28.84; blended pace 28.84.
- 426 first-half plays across 77 drives yield 5.53 plays/drive; 71.0 projected plays gives 12.8 first-half drives.
- Full-game sharp total moved 50.5 to 48.5, which supports the under but may already incorporate the relevant slowdown.
Questions
Who won Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt?
The Arkansas won 31–21 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.