Get app

Arkansas State vs. Southern MissFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalM. M. Roberts Stadium
Arkansas State2–4
23–13Final
Southern Miss1–4
Score by period
Team1234T
ARST6100723
USM070613

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 61.5 total 50¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Load-bearing total factors are about 134 combined current plays, roughly 21.3 adjusted combined possessions, and current points-per-drive rates of 2.64 for Arkansas State and 2.14 for Southern Miss.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 14-10 on this game · +14% return

  1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles to winLong shot3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket

    3 modelsCFB Heater, Drift +1
    Why 3 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • My 36% win estimate is modestly above the 34¢ executable no-side cost.
    • Arkansas State grades far better: 89.7 overall versus Southern Miss at 76.1.
    Drift
    • Power model 37.5%: Southern Miss net EPA/play is -0.014 versus Arkansas State -0.078, plus home field.
    • Most likely loss: Arkansas State's higher success rate (52.9% vs 49.8%), explosive rate (13.5% vs 12.6%), and better average margin (-0.7 vs -8.2) travel despite home field.
    Long Way Home
    • Across each team’s latest five 2026 games, Southern Miss averaged +0.169 offensive EPA/play versus Arkansas State’s +0.162.
    • Southern Miss’ latest-five defensive EPA allowed averaged +0.183/play versus Arkansas State’s +0.193; the market still prices Southern Miss as a substantial home underdog.
    • Arkansas State has the better recent record and scoring-margin form: 2-3, +2.8 versus Southern Miss 1-4, -8.2.
  2. Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread +72 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • CFB margin histogram: exact 7-point margins occurred 878 times; +7 preserves key-number push protection that the flat alternate ladder understates.
    • Efficiency read keeps the mean closer to the number than the venue implies: Arkansas State has the better offense (+0.1498 EPA/play), but its defense allows +0.2276 EPA/play versus Southern Miss at +0.1376.
    • Most likely loss: Arkansas State's stronger PFF profile and +0.1498 offensive EPA/play turn the defensive mismatch into an 8-point-or-more road win.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 averages show Southern Miss at +0.122 offensive EPA/play versus Arkansas State at +0.103; the seven points is the cushion.
    • Projection lens discounts Southern Miss's poor recent margin and values the near-parity offense plus home field; the market may be overreacting to 1-4 form.
    • Arkansas State has the better FBS-only success rate (51.5% to 48.2%), explosive rate (14.5% to 12.3%), and defensive EPA profile.
  3. Under 61.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Load-bearing total factors are about 134 combined current plays, roughly 21.3 adjusted combined possessions, and current points-per-drive rates of 2.64 for Arkansas State and 2.14 for Southern Miss.
    • Most likely loss: Arkansas State's 18.9% explosive rate and Southern Miss's 18.2% rate create short-field touchdowns that push the game over 61.5.
  4. Under 61 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession count is the load-bearing factor: current-season averages combine for 134.3 plays, with Arkansas State at 61.7 and Southern Miss at 72.6.
    • Scoring efficiency is not dominant: current points per drive average 2.64 for Arkansas State and 2.13 for Southern Miss; both QBs are confirmed same-day and cross-checked to recent pass-attempt leaders.
    • Most likely loss: both quarterbacks convert explosive plays and the game reaches 62 or more points; exactly 61 pushes.
  5. Arkansas State Red Wolves over 7.5 spread
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's sharp anchor is Arkansas State -6.5; an anchor-centered 16-point margin model gives roughly 47% at -7.5.
    • Trey Owens is identified as Arkansas State's first-year starter; Southern Miss officially expects Landry Lyddy's third straight start.
    • Empirical mass at the college key number 7 may lower the over-7.5 probability versus a smooth normal curve.
  6. Arkansas State Red Wolves spread −6.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game versus five-game efficiency sample: Arkansas State has the better success rate (.5288 vs .4983) and explosive rate (.1352 vs .1264), with offensive EPA/play +.1498 vs Southern Miss +.1687.
    • PFF card favors Arkansas State 89.7, 76.1 overall, 79.1, 73.5 offense and 82.0, 67.0 defense; that two-way grade gap supports laying the alternate number.
    • Personnel gate cleared: latest passing boxes lead with Trey Owens and Landry Lyddy; same-day coverage identifies both as the starters with no late QB uncertainty.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss wins outright or loses by six or fewer, making the better team-grade read irrelevant against the number.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles moneyline NOLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • That is a 13.31 percentage-point model-price gap before fees, with substantial positive estimated value.
    • FPI ratings are close: Arkansas State -10.021 versus Southern Miss -13.208, not a profile for a 65% favorite.
    • ESPN projects Southern Miss to lose by only 1.261 points, while the sportsbook spread is Arkansas State -6.5.
    • Southern Miss is 1-4 and has a -8.2 average margin over its last five games.
  2. Arkansas State Red Wolves 1st-half winner
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arkansas State's last five 2026 games average 2.77 points per drive versus Southern Miss's 1.65 across four.
    • Arkansas State averages .162 offensive EPA/play and .531 success rate; Southern Miss averages .122 and .482.
    • Trey Owens and Landry Lyddy are the expected starters, with no unresolved QB status in the live preview check.
    • Southern Miss is a 6.5-point full-game favorite, so the first-half read may be overconfident against the broader market.
  3. 1st-half total under 34.5 points
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects roughly 27-30 first-half points from recent scoring and points-per-drive inputs, below 34.5.
    • Arkansas State averaged 62.0 plays and 2.77 points per drive over its last five; Southern Miss averaged 72.6 plays and 2.13.
    • Both offenses show positive recent PROE, but combined recent scoring averages imply a mid-to-high-20s half before variance.
    • Southern Miss' 23.35-second recent pace can create extra possessions, and both defenses allow positive recent EPA per play.
  4. Game total under 62.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote is 54.75¢ (-121 American).
    • Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
  5. Arkansas State Red Wolves spread −6
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  6. Game total under 61.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended scoring estimate is 57, 59 points, below the 61.5 market total.
    • Season cross-projection: Arkansas State 31.4, Southern Miss 27.6; recent-five cross-projection totals 58.1.
    • 15 mph north-northeast wind, gusting to 30 mph, adds downside to two pass-heavy offenses.
    • Southern Miss plays fast at 23.35 seconds per snap; extra possessions can erase the weather drag.
  7. Southern Mississippi +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
  8. Total points under 60
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current 2026 offense/defense blend projects Arkansas State 31.4 and Southern Miss 27.6, or 59.0 total points.
    • Sportsbooks center 61.5; the ProphetX under-60 rung sits below that reference and pushes at exactly 60.
    • CFB histogram: 113 exact-60 totals and 243 exact-61 totals in 11,236 games; the 60, 61 area is not a flat interval.
    • Most likely loss: 61 or more points, especially if Arkansas State’s offense exploits Southern Miss’s 34.6 points allowed per game.
  9. Game total under 61
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION supports the internal signal: Arkansas State averages 31.34 seconds/play and Southern Miss 22.68; combined scoring averages are 54.6 points across the current samples.
    • QB gate cleared: live 2026 box data identifies Trey Owens and Landry Lyddy as the latest pass-attempt leaders, and current reporting names both starters; Ethan Hampton is out.
    • Both defenses allow positive EPA: Arkansas State +0.2276 and Southern Miss +0.1376 per play in six-game samples.
  10. Game total under 63
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Simple FBS offense-defense blend projects 59.9 points: Arkansas State 23.4 scored/33.2 allowed; Southern Miss 20.75/42.5.
    • SI lists Landry Lyddy and Trey Owens; Ethan Hampton is out, reducing quarterback uncertainty.
    • Southern Miss allowed 42.5 points per FBS game, giving Arkansas State a credible path past the total.
  11. Arkansas State Red Wolves first-half spread over 4.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's full-game Arkansas State -6.5 implies a first-half mean near +3.25.
    • Season-to-date margin differential is +7.5 Arkansas State points; blended full-game mean +7.0 gives a first-half mean +3.5.
    • Full-game key-number mass is college-specific: absolute margins 3, 7, and 10 lead the histogram, but first-half mass is unobserved.
  12. Game total over 62
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game Arkansas State / five-game Southern Miss sample: A-State offense is +0.1498 EPA/play and .5288 success; Southern Miss defense allows +0.1831 EPA/play.
    • Southern Miss offense is +0.1687 EPA/play against an Arkansas State defense allowing +0.2276; both sides have positive matchup paths.
    • Current explosive rates are .1352 and .1264, while PROE is +.1312 and +.1564; both offenses remain pass-aggressive and big-play capable.
    • Most likely loss: Arkansas State's 31.34-second pace suppresses possessions; the current scoring averages sum to only 54.6 points.
  13. Game first-half total over 34.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season-to-date drives average 10.0 for Arkansas State and 12.4 for Southern Miss; observed first-half average is 11.9 combined.
    • Blended pace is 27.35 seconds/play (31.34 Arkansas State, 23.35 Southern Miss); both teams' positive PROE averages 0.1437 and explosive rate averages 0.1308.
    • mph gust can suppress possessions more than the conservative 5% cut, especially for Arkansas State's slower 31.34-second pace.
  14. Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The +6.5 cushion is 5.24 points beyond that model margin, making the home dog materially more likely to cover than the 52.38¢ price implies.
    • Arkansas State's season FPI rating is only 3.19 points better, while Southern Miss is at home; the exchange's main ladder offers +6.5 at -110.
    • Most likely ticket path: Southern Miss stays within one score, consistent with the model's near-pick'em projection.
    • Arkansas State's offense produced 0.423 EPA/play and a 63.5% success rate in its latest game, creating blowout risk if that form carries over.
  15. Game total under 62
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 2026 samples cover six Arkansas State and five Southern Miss games; both exceed the three-game FBS coverage gate.
    • Arkansas State is slow at 31.34 seconds/play; Southern Miss is faster at 23.35, a mixed-possession matchup rather than two fast offenses.
    • QB gate cleared: Trey Owens and Landry Lyddy led the latest passing boxes; same-day reporting names both starters with no open QB battle.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss repeats its 34-point Troy output while Arkansas State’s explosive rate creates enough counter-scoring to reach 62.

Questions

Who won Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss?

The Arkansas State won 23–13 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.