Auburn vs. GeorgiaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSanford Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
| UGA | 14 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAuburn Tigers to win 10¢
Why Saturday Board likes it: RECOMMENDED Tier 2 VALUE dog: Georgia margin mean about +20.7 with roughly 17-point SD; Auburn's close-game tail, including a five-point Florida loss and Georgia's three-point Alabama win, supports the upset probability.
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-14 on this game · +0% return
- Georgia Bulldogs spread −19.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
D1 Winner- Georgia averages +0.373 EPA/play on offense versus Auburn's +0.046; defensive EPA allowed is -0.060 versus Auburn's +0.072.
- Georgia's PFF overall grade is 97.3 versus Auburn's 80.1, with a 93.4-to-74.0 defensive-grade edge.
- A 19.5-point number is expensive; the estimated edge is model-dependent rather than a dominant market mismatch.
Long Way Home- Auburn's recent +5.4 margin and Georgia's 20-point output against Alabama make a 20-point home win less automatic than the moneyline implies.
- Auburn's recent offense posted -0.156 EPA/play against Tennessee and could fail to score enough to stay inside 20.
- Game total under 49−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo BoardWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- Five-game Auburn sample: +0.046 EPA/play, .454 success, .140 explosive; six-game Georgia: +0.373, .547, .176.
- Pace/PROE is asymmetric: Auburn 22.49 seconds/play and +.130 PROE; Georgia 31.84 and approximately +.078 PROE.
- Most likely loss: Georgia turns its EPA edge into short fields and Auburn contributes enough explosive scores to reach 50.
Tempo Board- existing under 50 position is retained; the live board moved to the new 49 rung, creating permitted same-side line movement.
- Auburn averaged 26.8 points across five games, and its 39-point Florida performance shows a path to clearing 14.5 against regression-prone defenses.
- Georgia Bulldogs spread −21−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Georgia leads current offensive EPA/play 0.373 to 0.046 and defensive EPA allowed -0.060 to Auburn's +0.072; PFF overall is 97.3, 80.1.
- Current scoring-margin form is +32.2 for Georgia versus +5.4 for Auburn; the model's mean is shifted beyond the 21-point rung.
- Most likely loss: Georgia wins by 20 or fewer; exactly 21 is a push, not a win.
ProphetX Pairs- only 2026 sample: Georgia off EPA/play +0.312 versus Auburn +0.046, a +0.266 gap.
- Georgia allows -0.005 defensive EPA/play versus Auburn's +0.072; Georgia also leads success rate .524 to .454.
- +129 needs 43.7% to break even; my 48% estimate is only a modest 4.3-point cushion.
- Game total under 50−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTempo Board, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Tempo Board- Georgia’s six-game defense allows -0.060 EPA/play; its 93.4 PFF defense grade is substantially above Auburn’s 74.0.
- Georgia’s scoring average is inflated by blowouts; its recent SEC outputs were 20, 38, 41 and 45 points.
- Georgia averages 46.2 points and Auburn 26.8, so two efficient offenses can overwhelm the defensive matchup.
Long Way Home- my matchup estimate is 45, 48 points, below the 50-point contract.
- Auburn scored 14 and 21 in its two latest games; Georgia allowed 17, 14, and 13 in its three prior games.
- Georgia's offense has scored 38, 41, 45, and 70 in four of its last five, so a dominant home performance can beat the number alone.
- Georgia Bulldogs over 34.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta +0.2396/play: Georgia offense +0.3117 minus Auburn defensive allowance +0.0721.
- Georgia scored touchdowns on 19 of 24 red-zone trips (.7917) over its last five qualifying games, above the .62 over trigger.
- Confirmers agree: success-rate delta +.0713 (.5239 vs Auburn opponents .4526) and explosive-rate delta +.0526 (.1401 vs .0874).
- Georgia's official game-day report lists multiple skill-position absences, including RB Chauncey Bowens and WRs Isiah Canion and Thomas Blackshear.
- Auburn Tigers to win+900%Won
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- RECOMMENDED Tier 2 VALUE dog: Georgia margin mean about +20.7 with roughly 17-point SD; Auburn's close-game tail, including a five-point Florida loss and Georgia's three-point Alabama win, supports the upset probability.
- Most likely loss: Georgia's efficiency and Sanford Stadium advantage produce a comfortable win, leaving Auburn below the outright-win threshold.
Show all 16 picks
- Over 49.5 total+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- RECOMMENDED Tier 2: approximately 21 adjusted possessions, Georgia's 0.373 offensive EPA/play and 3.59 points/drive, plus Auburn's 22.5-second pace and 0.140 explosive rate support the Over.
- Most likely loss: Auburn's inefficient offense stalls against Georgia's -0.060 defensive EPA allowed and the game finishes at 49 points or fewer.
- Georgia Bulldogs to win−100%Lost
Taken at 91¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Early BirdUp 91% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sport-filtered records are positive: JEEMUS 25-2, RollAwayTheDew 19-12, and 0x722D 6-0.
- The US moneyline is actively quoted with roughly $489k traded on the contract.
- Georgia safety KJ Bolden is reportedly doubtful; the look-ahead injury picture is not final.
- Byrum Brown passing yards over 187.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model probability 58%; FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%, a 5.2-point value margin.
- Brown cleared 187.5 in 8 of his last 10 appearances, including 3 of 5 this season.
- His five 2026 logs show 27-35 attempts and a 211-yard average against this low line.
- Georgia ranks 36th of 137 in defensive EPA allowed, a top-26% matchup that suppresses passing.
- Georgia Bulldogs spread −18−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Five-versus-six-game read: Georgia offense +0.3727 EPA/play and .5468 success versus Auburn defense allowing +0.0776 EPA/play.
- Auburn offense is only +0.0460 EPA/play and .4537 success, facing Georgia's -0.0597 defensive EPA allowed.
- Georgia leads explosive rate .1758 to .1339, PFF overall grade 97.3 to 80.1, and offense grade 93.4 to 71.8.
- Most likely loss: Georgia wins by 17 or fewer after Auburn's defense forces field goals and creates a late backdoor score.
- London Humphreys under 26.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP grade 76/100; current-season average is 20.4 yards versus the 26.5 line.
- Under hit in 4 of 5 2026 games and 6 of the last 10 tracked games.
- L5 under rate is 80%; recent lines were 43, 19, 12, 17, and 11 yards.
- Georgia's 93.4 offensive grade and 46.2 recent points per game can create more receiving opportunities.
- Under 51.5 total points+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both sides show 3 book levels; thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth supplies the two-measure read.
- Directional check: backing under 51.5, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches; quote is -126 (55.75¢).
- ProphetX depth is venue self-reference, not an independent statistical edge; orders may cancel before kickoff.
- Auburn Tigers spread +17+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Auburn +17 depth $13,881 vs Georgia -17 $6,817; backing-side depth ratio 2.04.
- Auburn has 3 book levels vs Georgia's 2; thin quote, deeper ladder, and level count align.
- Directional check: backing Auburn +17, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches; quote is +128 (43.86¢).
- ProphetX depth is venue self-reference, not independent confirmation; resting orders can cancel or be stale.
- Georgia Bulldogs first-half spread NO 13.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle pregame Georgia -19.5 scales to a +9.75 first-half anchor; live inputs lift μ1H to +12.0.
- DERIVED REFERENCE at exact 13.5: 852 completed 2026 FBS regular-season finals give SD_full 17.24; square-root scaling gives σ1H 12.19.
- The mean-plus-SD distribution gives Georgia margin ≤13.5 about 54.9%; this is the same direction at a new rung beside held NO 10.5.
- LEAN only: no independent first-half sharp quote; the exact-rung reference is model-derived from a scaled full-game sharp line.
- Georgia Bulldogs first-half spread NO 10.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 season data cross-match gives Georgia 33.8 expected full-game points versus Auburn 20.4; pace/PPD adjustment produces an approximately +8.0 first-half mean.
- DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact 10.5 rung: 823 FBS regular-season finals have SD 17.35; sqrt-half scaling gives SD 12.27, producing about 58% NO.
- Pinnacle Georgia -19 at -110 implies a +9.5 first-half anchor; the same wide-distribution calculation still favors NO at 10.5, directionally agreeing.
- LEAN only: the exact first-half reference is derived, not an independently posted sharp first-half price; venue self-reference is not treated as independent evidence.
- First-half total under 26.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Auburn vs. Georgia?
The Auburn won 27–24 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.