Cal Poly vs. Northern ColoradoFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalNottingham Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 18 |
| NORT | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNorthern Colorado +3.5 52¢
Why House Rules likes it: +3.5 wins when Cal Poly wins by exactly 3; +3 only pushes.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-2 on this game · −36% return
- Northern Colorado +3.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +3.5 wins when Cal Poly wins by exactly 3; +3 only pushes.
- ProphetX +3.5 is -110 (52.38¢), versus Northern Colorado +3 at -125 (55.56¢).
- live Pinnacle prices Northern Colorado +3.5 at -130; ProphetX is 20 American points better.
- Northern Colorado winning outright makes both +3 and +3.5 winners, so the asymmetry matters only around the key margin.
- Cal Poly Mustangs spread −2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cal Poly's 2026 offense averages +0.1127 EPA/play versus Northern Colorado's +0.0284; PFF overall grades favor Cal Poly 82.8-77.5.
- The -2.5 rung captures a Cal Poly margin of exactly 3; the sharper reference is Cal Poly -3 to -3.5, corroborating the side and the better rung.
- Most likely loss: Northern Colorado wins outright or Cal Poly wins by only 1-2 points; -2.5 has no push protection.
- Cal Poly Mustangs spread −3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cal Poly leads 2026 team-game EPA/play 0.113, 0.028 and has the better average defensive EPA/play, 0.125, 0.157.
- Cal Poly averages 29.6 points to Northern Colorado's 23.0, while allowing only 3.7 more points per game despite the tougher recent profile.
- My projection gives the Mustangs 54% to cover, a 5.69-point probability gap versus the quoted price.
- Cal Poly's defensive EPA is still positive overall, and its 30.3 points allowed per game leaves room for a Northern Colorado upset.
Questions
Who won Cal Poly vs. Northern Colorado?
The Northern Colorado won 28–18 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.