Central Arkansas vs. Tarleton StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTarleton Memorial Stadium
Central Arkansas2–4
35–49Final
Tarleton State6–0
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENT | 0 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
| TARL | 7 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 49 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTarleton State Texans to win 89¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Both positions are still open; their entry prices were 83.9¢ and 76.5¢, with Tarleton now offered at 89¢.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · −43% return
- Tarleton State Texans to win+12%Won
Taken at 89¢ on Polymarket
3 modelsCFB Heater, D1 Winner +1Why 3 models like it
CFB Heater- Both positions are still open; their entry prices were 83.9¢ and 76.5¢, with Tarleton now offered at 89¢.
- The contract is accepting orders with about $3,377 traded, materially more liquid than the spread and total ladders.
- Tarleton could underperform as a heavy favorite, while FCS game variance and late-game scoring create upset risk.
D1 Winner- +0.156 offensive EPA/play gap (.257 vs .101) and success-rate edge (.507 vs .470) through six games.
- Confirmed Kaden Anderson has 1,693 yards and 15 TDs; Central Arkansas starter Donovyn Omolo has 892 yards and 6 TDs.
- Only six 2026 games create meaningful opponent-adjustment and Bayesian-shrinkage uncertainty.
Long Way Home- live 7-0 after 5:22; Tarleton posted +0.2125 EPA/play versus Central Arkansas -0.7667 on 21 plays.
- Recent form favors Tarleton: 5-0 with +15.6 average margin; Central Arkansas is 1-4 at -8.0.
- Most likely loss: Central Arkansas converts the early deficit into a comeback after Tarleton's hot start.
- Game total under 61.5−100%Lost
Taken at −130 on DraftKings
2 modelsTempo Gap, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Tempo Gap- Tarleton posts 0.257 EPA/play and 3.26 points/drive; Central Arkansas posts 0.101 EPA/play and 2.25 points/drive.
- Both quarterbacks are verified starters: Kaden Anderson has 1,693 yards and 15 pass TD; Donovyn Omolo has 892 yards and 6 pass TD.
- Tarleton's 17.7% explosive-play rate and Anderson's form can create quick points against the upper tail.
Long Way Home- Recent scoring blend projects about 54.4 points before a modest home adjustment, roughly seven below 61.5.
- Central Arkansas averaged 20.6 points across its latest five games and scored 14 or fewer in four of them; the 59-point outburst is the clear outlier.
- Most likely loss: Tarleton's 40-plus-point offense combines with short fields or explosive plays and pushes the game into the mid-60s.
- Tarleton State Texans spread −18.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tarleton averages +0.257 offensive EPA/play and 39.5 points; Central Arkansas allows +0.062 defensive EPA/play.
- Tarleton's 0.507 offensive success rate and 17.7% explosive rate exceed Central Arkansas's 0.470 and 13.0%.
- Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: Kaden Anderson and Donovyn Omolo; both teams have a full seven-day rest cycle.
- Tarleton's defense has allowed +0.055 EPA/play and 23.3 points per game, leaving backdoor-cover risk.
Questions
Who won Central Arkansas vs. Tarleton State?
The Tarleton State won 49–35 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.