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Charlotte vs. TempleFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLincoln Financial Field
Charlotte0–6
38–31Final
Temple2–4
Score by period
Team1234T
CLT70141738
TEM7771031

Top model pick, graded

Won

Charlotte 49ers +19.5 53¢

Heater Two-HourDown 9% this season · 145 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-13 on this game · −25% return

  1. Temple Owls spread −203 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • six-game 2026 FBS sample: Temple is +0.1166 EPA/play and .481 success rate versus Charlotte at -0.2035 and .3738, a +0.3201 EPA/play and +.1072 success gap.
    • Temple averages 2.203 points per drive and 26.00 seconds per play; Charlotte averages 1.096 points per drive and 28.56 seconds, favoring Temple's possession efficiency.
    • Most likely loss: Temple leads but Charlotte scores late or wins the backdoor, leaving the Owls short of a 21-point margin; exactly 20 pushes.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • five FBS games: Temple leads Charlotte in offensive EPA/play (+0.114 to -0.267), defensive EPA allowed (+0.183 to +0.335), and success rate (47.6% to 35.6%).
    • Temple also leads explosive rate 13.2% to 11.2% and plays faster (25.18 versus 28.84 seconds per play); home field reinforces the matchup edge.
    • Temple is 1-4 in its last five with a -6.6 scoring margin; its recent form is not dominant despite the efficiency gap.
    Long Way Home
    • 2026 data: Temple has +0.117 offensive EPA/play; Charlotte has -0.204, while Charlotte allows +0.312 defensive EPA/play.
    • Temple averages 24.8 points and a -1.5 margin; Charlotte averages 16.0 points and a -26.2 margin; a simple blend projects Temple by roughly 22.
    • Most likely loss: Temple wins by 1, 19, with a late backdoor score or Temple clock-management slowdown.
  2. Game total under 482 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTempo Board, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Board
    • The same-event team-total rungs are Temple 33.5 plus Charlotte 13.5, summing to 47; the full-game 48 gives the under a one-point structural cushion.
    • Sharp reference only: captured sportsbook total is 46.5; ProphetX supplies the placement price and the venue-self-reference edge.
    • Most likely loss: Temple's 0.1166 offensive EPA/play and Charlotte's +0.3119 defensive EPA allowed produce short fields and a 49-point game.
    Long Way Home
    • Charlotte averages 16.0 points and -0.204 offensive EPA/play through six games; its 0.374 success rate supplies the low-scoring mechanism.
    • Temple averages 24.8 points, but its offense is only 0.117 EPA/play and its defense allowed 26.3 points per game.
    • Most likely loss: Temple's defense repeats its recent 34-point concession and Charlotte contributes enough for 49 or more.
  3. Temple Owls spread −17.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED Tier 2: Temple's +0.1166 EPA/play and 2.203 points/drive versus Charlotte's -0.2035 and 1.096 support the favorite through the 17-point key rung.
    • Most likely loss: Charlotte stays within 17 as Temple's recent 1-4 stretch and 26.3 points allowed per game reappear.
  4. Charlotte 49ers +19.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  5. Temple Owls −17.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair margin 20.5 points versus a 17.5-point market spread: estimated 3.0-point edge.
    • Temple leads 2026 season EPA/play offense 0.117 to Charlotte -0.204 and success rate 48.1% to 37.4%.
    • Temple's season points per drive advantage is 2.20 to 1.10; explosive-play rate also favors Temple 13.6% to 11.9%.
    • Temple's five-game FBS margin is only -6.6, and its recent defense allowed 0.229 EPA/play, which can create backdoor-cover risk.
  6. Game total under 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Charlotte averages 16.0 points and -0.2035 EPA/play through six games.
    • Temple's Ajani Sheppard has 891 yards, 7 TDs, and 0 INTs; Charlotte's Conner Harrell returned with 2 INTs last week.
    • Composite scoring estimate is approximately 43.5 points, three below the posted 46.5.
    • Charlotte allows 42.2 points per game, creating a path for Temple to score 35-plus.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Temple Owls −19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B); projected Temple margin 24-25, roughly 4.5-5.5 points above the current spread.
    • Charlotte is 0-6 with a -26.2 average margin; its 2026 offense produces -0.2667 EPA/play and a 36.2% success rate.
    • Temple's 78.9 team grade is 16.1 points above Charlotte's 62.8; Temple offense is +0.0718 EPA/play.
    • The spread moved from Temple -20.5 to -19.5, opposing the model's direction and signaling respected Charlotte support.
  2. Under 48 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  3. Charlotte 49ers +17
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  4. Charlotte 49ers spread +18.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Temple -17.5 is the sharp reference from the captured Pinnacle/DraftKings market, but the exchange's +18.5 rung captures the valuable half-point above 18.
    • Temple is better overall, but the matchup profile supports a competitive margin: Charlotte offense EPA/play -0.2035 versus Temple +0.1166, while Charlotte's six-game scoring margin is -26.2 and Temple's is -1.5.
    • Most likely loss: Temple's stronger offense and Charlotte's +0.3119 defensive EPA allowed/play produce a 19-plus-point Temple win.
  5. Total points under 47
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Temple and Charlotte average 24.8 and 16.0 points per game through six 2026 games, a 40.8-point baseline below 47.
    • Temple's recent offense is +0.0823 EPA/play while Charlotte is -0.2743; the matchup mean is dragged down by Charlotte's 0-6, 96-point season.
    • QB gate cleared: official Charlotte reporting says Conner Harrell remains the starter; Temple's official game center and Oct. 17 depth-chart check identify Ajani Sheppard.
    • Most likely loss: Temple's defense yields explosives and Charlotte contributes enough for 48-plus points.
  6. Temple Owls first-half spread NO 10.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,676 FBS finals from 2024-26 gave SD 15.66; square-root half-possession scaling gives first-half SD 11.07.
    • Pinnacle full-game Temple -20.5 (+103) scales to a first-half mean of 10.25.
    • At the exact 10.5 rung, N(10.25, 11.07²) gives Temple-over probability 49.1%, so NO is 50.9% versus a 47c price.
    • The matchup points-per-play projection, after a modest 5% weather possession haircut, implies only about a 4.8-point first-half mean; reconciling that with the sharp 10.25 reference is uncertain.
  7. Game first-half total over 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 six-game pace: Charlotte 28.56 sec/play and Temple 26.00; 58.17/61.00 plays per game produced 37/30 first-half drives.
    • The 24.9 derived mean is only 0.4 points above 24.5; scoring variance can erase this thin projection edge.
  8. Charlotte 49ers game total under 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game 2026 samples: Charlotte averages 28.56 seconds/play, +12.7% PROE, 11.9% explosive rate and 37.4% success; Temple averages 26.00, -0.5%, 13.6% and 48.1%.
    • Charlotte has scored 16.0 points per game; Temple has scored 24.8, for a 40.8-point combined scoring baseline before matchup adjustment.
    • Temple's listed sportsbook/reference total is 45.5; the ProphetX 46.5 under offers a full point of additional room at plus money.
    • Most likely loss: Charlotte's defense allows +0.3119 EPA/play, giving Temple short fields and enough efficiency to clear 47.
  9. Charlotte 49ers to winLong shot
    +456%Won

    Taken at 18¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Temple produced 0.2613 EPA/play and 40.0% success over 15 plays; the underdog had not been outplayed early.
    • My win probability remains 28%, above the 18.02¢ graded contract price; the repricing increases the modeled edge but not conviction.
    • Temple remains the substantial pregame favorite; its talent gap can surface after the tied opening quarter.

Questions

Who won Charlotte vs. Temple?

The Charlotte won 38–31 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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