Dayton vs. ButlerFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBud and Jackie Sellick Bowl

Dayton4–1

19–9Final

Butler5–1

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAYT	0	14	0	5	19
BUTL	3	0	0	6	9

How the picks did

Models went 0-6 on this game · −100% return

Butler Bulldogs −5.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Butler averages +0.235 offensive EPA/play versus Dayton's +0.086, with a 49.9% to 46.0% success-rate edge.
- Butler's five-game scoring margin is +17.6 per game versus Dayton's +13.8; home field supports the matchup edge.
- Both teams last played Oct. 10, providing an even seven days of rest with no short-week disadvantage.
- The five-game efficiency sample includes weaker nonconference opponents, so Butler's EPA advantage may be inflated.
Game total over 50.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Combined recent team-game sample is 8/10 over 50.5; the latest four qualifying totals all cleared it.
- Derived recent scoring/defense blend projects 57.3 points, 13.5% above the 50.5 line.
- Butler and Dayton combine for positive recent offensive EPA, while the total market moved up from 48.5 to 50.5 at DraftKings.
- The sample is only five 2026 games per team and includes weaker opponents.
Game total over 51.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 57.5% model win probability versus roughly 50% de-vigged at the 51.5 line.
- Combined last-five totals average 57.3 points, 5.8 above this number.
- Butler and Dayton average 39.4 and 33.6 points per game, respectively.
- Butler's run-heavy profile and 21.8-point recent defensive average can suppress pace and scoring.
Butler Bulldogs to win
−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- live cfb_win_probability gives Butler 64.8% after the latest recorded play, versus 60.0% implied by ProphetX.
- Butler still grades as the home favorite despite trailing 7-3; its recent five-game scoring margin is +17.6 versus Dayton's +13.8.
- Butler's 2026 form includes 0.276 offensive EPA/play and -0.151 defensive EPA/play in its latest game; Dayton's latest defense allowed 0.195 EPA/play.
- The latest play-by-play/model snapshot trails the live game clock by roughly seven minutes; a score, injury, or turnover may be missing.
Butler Bulldogs spread −5.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Butler's three home games average 46.7 points scored and 10.0 allowed; Dayton's two road games average 19.5 scored and 22.0 allowed.
- Butler's recent home performances produced margins of +52, +27, and +31, while Dayton's road margins were +3 and -8.
- A conservative blend of the home/road scoring and efficiency profiles estimates a 57% Butler cover probability; the mechanism is matchup projection, not payout size.
- Most likely loss: Dayton's road offense improves enough for a one-score game and Butler wins by five or fewer.
Game total over 50.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, blended scoring/defense inputs project approximately 57.2 points versus 50.5.
- Butler's 2026 average is 39.4 points scored and 21.6 allowed; Dayton averages 33.6 scored and 19.8 allowed.
- Most likely loss: Dayton's offense stalls against Butler's improved defense and the game finishes at 50 or fewer.

Questions

Who won Dayton vs. Butler?

The Dayton won 19–9 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.