Elon vs. StanfordFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalStanford Stadium

Elon4–3

7–34Final

Stanford2–4

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
ELON	0	0	0	7	7
STAN	6	8	14	6	34

Top model pick, graded

Won

Elon Phoenix spread +34.5 51¢

Why Drift likes it: RECOMMENDED partial: current-season efficiency gives Elon the defensive edge, allowing -0.212 EPA/play versus Stanford +0.410.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 8-3 on this game · +27% return

Game total under 56.52 models agree
+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, Picks With Pink Grading System
Why 2 models like it
D1 Winner
- Own composite estimates 58.5% to stay under; FanDuel's -106/-114 two-way market devigs to roughly 50.9% under.
- Stanford averages only 15.7 points through six games; its offense is -0.0756 EPA/play with 7 and 3 points in the last two.
- Stanford's defense has allowed 41.5 points per game, creating a path for Elon to contribute heavily despite the recent shutout.
Picks With Pink Grading System
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100: qualifying B-grade game-total value.
- Projected total 49.5, a 12.4% gap below FanDuel's 56.5.
- Stanford allowed 41.5 points per game and produced three recent totals above 56.5.
Elon Phoenix spread +34.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- RECOMMENDED partial: current-season efficiency gives Elon the defensive edge, allowing -0.212 EPA/play versus Stanford +0.410.
- Elon also leads success rate 42.3%-41.4% and explosive rate 13.4%-9.1%; model cover probability is 54.0%.
- Most likely loss: Stanford's home-field and FBS talent gap produce a win by 35 or more.
Stanford Cardinal first-half spread NO 20.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- full-game Stanford -34.0 Pinnacle and -34.5 FanDuel/DraftKings scale to a first-half mean of 17.0, 17.25.
- College mass is concentrated at 3, 7, 10, 4, 14, and 17; 20.5 is not imported NFL key-number mass. Edge class: PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE.
- The mean is scaled from a full-game sharp reference; no independent first-half sportsbook reference was posted.
1st-half total under 44.5 pointsFavorite
+10%Won
Taken at 91¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Stanford averaged 1.017 points per drive across its last five; Elon averaged 1.407.
- Recent offensive EPA/play was negative for both teams: Stanford -0.102 and Elon -0.133.
- Recent success rates were modest: Stanford 39.0%, Elon 39.6%; neither offense consistently sustains drives.
- Stanford's recent defensive EPA allowed was poor at +0.440/play, creating short-field and defensive-score risk.
Stanford Cardinal spread −35.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Adjacent ProphetX Stanford -35 is 47.62c versus -35.5 at 44.44c: a 3.18-point whole-rung premium.
- CFB margins of exactly 35 occurred 198 times, 1.909%, in 2014-25 regular/postseason data; -35 pushes there while -35.5 loses.
- The 1.909% exact-margin rate is broad FBS history, not a Stanford-Elon-specific distribution.
Elon Phoenix spread +36.5
+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Sharp reference centers Stanford -34 to -34.5, so this rung adds two points without leaving the market's main-number neighborhood.
- The margin histogram is lumpy: exact margins 35, 36 and 37 occurred 214, 57 and 76 times; +36.5 captures through 36 rather than treating that interval as flat.
- Six-game form is nearly even offensively: Elon -0.0795 EPA/play versus Stanford -0.0756, while Elon’s defense allowed -0.143 versus Stanford’s +0.4096.
- Most likely loss: Stanford’s FBS talent and home field produce a 37-point or larger win; exactly 37 loses at +36.5.

Show all 10 picks

Stanford Cardinal −35
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Stanford's verified starter Davis Warren has 1,351 passing yards, 6 TD and 2 INT through six games; Elon returned Brady Stober to its starting lineup before this matchup.
- the captured main market is Stanford -34.5; this takes a comparable number at plus money rather than paying the favorite tax.
- Stanford averages only 15.7 points while allowing 41.5 through six games; its own offense can fail to create separation.
Elon Phoenix spread +35
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Six-game window: Elon averages -0.0795 EPA/play and .4132 success; Stanford allows +0.4096 defensive EPA/play, a major matchup cushion for the underdog.
- Elon’s defense allows -0.143 EPA/play in the same six-game window, while Stanford’s offense is -0.0756 EPA/play with a .4139 success rate.
- PFF 2026 card favors Elon 84.4 overall and 90.7 defense versus Stanford at 66.9 and 61.3; Stanford is 2-4 and has lost its last two by 51 and 54.
- Most likely loss: Stanford fixes its recent offensive collapse, wins field position decisively, and Elon’s offense cannot stay within 35.
Elon Phoenix to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 3¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Elon has averaged 25.7 points for and 17.4 against; Stanford has averaged only 15.7 for and 41.5 against in 2026.
- The existing game read is under-shaped and Elon-positive: this moneyline is a separate market, not a duplicate of the held spread position.
- Most likely loss: Stanford's home-field and talent gap creates an early multi-score lead before Elon can exploit the matchup.
Elon Phoenix spread +35.5
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Stanford scored only 7 and 3 points in its last two games, with offensive EPA/play of -0.3355 and -0.2401.
- Elon scored 23, 43, and 24 points in three of its last five games, giving it a credible backdoor path despite the matchup gap.
- Single-leg ticket: no ProphetX combination tax; contract link is carried below.
- Most likely loss: Stanford's home-field and talent edge produces a 36-point win or larger.

Questions

Who won Elon vs. Stanford?

The Stanford won 34–7 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.