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Florida vs. TexasFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Florida4–2
27–24Final
Texas4–1
Score by period
Team1234T
FLA01071027
TEX1070724

Top model pick, graded

Won

Florida Gators +10.5 49¢

Why Double-Digit Dog likes it: The 5.96-point fair-value gap clears the brief's 4-point threshold.

Double-Digit DogNew · 3 graded so far
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How the picks did

Models went 5-8 on this game · −27% return

  1. Texas Longhorns to winFavorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 81¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • The contract is liquid and accepting: $42,625 traded, with the Texas outcome around an 81c executable cost.
    • Texas is 4-1 over its last five with a +15.4 scoring margin; Florida is 3-2 at +6.2.
    • At 81c, the margin is thin; the ticket needs Texas to win more than 81% of the time.
    Long Way Home
    • Texas FPI is 25.657 (No. 7) versus Florida's 12.625 (No. 25); SP+ is 24.4 versus 11.0.
    • Texas has 4-1 current-season form, -0.124 defensive EPA/play, and 16.0 points allowed per game.
    • Florida's offense averages 41.7 points and 0.280 EPA/play across six games, creating a real upset path.
  2. Florida Gators +10.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    Double-Digit DogNew model
    Why it likes it
    • The 5.96-point fair-value gap clears the brief's 4-point threshold.
    • Texas averaged 36.0 seconds per snap through Week 6, a slow pace that compresses margins.
    • If Philo sits or is limited, Florida's offense could be materially worse than this handicap assumes.
  3. Texas −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  4. Texas Longhorns over 31.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA delta is +0.0141/play: Texas offense +0.2291 minus Florida FBS defensive allowance +0.2150.
    • Texas scored touchdowns on 14 of 22 red-zone trips (.636), clearing the over trigger with a full sample.
    • Texas success rate .4917 exceeds Florida's FBS defensive success rate allowed by about 3.6 points.
    • Florida's defense carries an 86.1 team grade versus Texas's 77.5 offense grade, a difficult matchup despite the small EPA edge.
  5. Dallas Wilson over 43.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 65% vs 52.8% implied at -112: roughly 12 percentage points of value.
    • Wilson cleared 43.5 yards in 4 of his last 5 appearances: 74, 66, 11, 74, 104.
    • Florida ranks 243rd of 267 teams in current-season pass yards allowed at 268.7 per game.
    • Five-game sample; the 11-yard outlier shows meaningful target and game-script volatility.
  6. Game total under 50
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida's last two FBS games produced -0.0516 and -0.0415 offensive EPA/play, after Aaron Philo's shoulder issue and the expected Tramell Jones start.
    • Most likely loss: Florida's defense allows Texas efficient short-field scores; Florida permits +0.1331 defensive EPA/play and Texas averages .136 explosive rate.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Arch Manning under 23.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of 5 2026 games stayed under 23.5 rushing yards (80%).
    • Arch averages 20.4 rushing yards across those five games, a 13.2% line gap.
    • He has logged 7-11 carries in each game, supporting a stable but modest rushing workload.
    • yard rushing game at Tennessee shows a meaningful scramble-tail outcome.
  2. Over 49 total points
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over has 3 book levels versus under 2, corroborating the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it configuration across all three measures.
    • Directional coherence check: backing over 49, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX is the only reference: displayed depth can be canceled, stale, or strategically placed, so this is not independent evidence.
  3. Texas Longhorns first-half spread over 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,584 regular-season FBS finals from 2024, 26 give SD_full 15.774; sqrt scaling gives SD_1H 11.153 and conditional Q2 SD 7.887.
    • Live state is Texas 10, Florida 0 after Q1; Pinnacle’s live full-game Texas -17 implies +7 remaining margin, or roughly +2.33 in Q2. The derived halftime mean is +12.33.
    • LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: the first-half probability is derived from a live full-game sharp line, not an independent first-half sharp quote.
  4. Texas Longhorns −11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on Fanatics

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair margin: Texas by 15.0; the Fanatics -11.5 spread creates a 3.5-point model edge.
    • Opponent-adjusted vendor ratings support Texas: FPI 25.657 vs Florida 12.625 and SP+ 24.4 vs 11.0; home field reinforces the gap.
    • only season data: Texas averages -0.124 defensive EPA allowed and 15.4 points of margin across five games.
    • Florida's FBS season success rate (.531) and explosive rate (.150) exceed Texas (.492 and .123), a material secondary contradiction.
  5. Jadan Baugh over 75.5 rushing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 57% vs 52.8% implied at -112: about 4.2 percentage points of value.
    • Baugh cleared 75.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 appearances, meeting the 60% form threshold.
    • Texas ranks 23rd of 267 in current-season rushing yards allowed at 96.0 per game, a materially difficult matchup.
  6. Over 51 total points
    0%Push

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels tie 3-3; two core measures agree and both raw stakes are large enough to exceed a small-order fluke.
    • Directional check: backing Over 51, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; this is a new line versus the held Over 49 after a two-point move.
    • Depth advantage is modest at 1.150 and book-level count ties, so the order-flow signal is weaker than the spread read.
  7. Florida Gators spread +13
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida's 2026 offense leads Texas in EPA/play (0.280 vs 0.229), success rate (53.5% vs 49.2%), and explosiveness (15.4% vs 12.3%).
    • Projection puts Texas closer to an 8, 10 point win than the 13-point cover threshold; Florida can lose outright and still cash.
    • The position is coherent with the existing Texas moneyline: Texas can win while Florida stays within two scores.
    • Texas' defense is the strongest unit in the matchup, allowing -0.124 defensive EPA/play versus Florida's +0.133 allowed.

Questions

Who won Florida vs. Texas?

The Florida won 27–24 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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