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Florida State vs. MiamiFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHard Rock Stadium
Florida State3–3
35–43Final
Miami5–0
Score by period
Team123456T
FSU014777635
MIA770147843

Top model pick, graded

Won

Miami Hurricanes to win −1400

Why Brewing CFB Moneylines likes it: Miami leads recent adjusted FPI efficiency 92.10 to 63.40, with a 27.647-to-8.428 rating edge.

Brewing CFB MoneylinesUp 5% return this season · 40 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-9 on this game · +18% return

  1. Game total over 56.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Rung, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Rung
    • 57.9-point simple projection: Miami 37.5, Florida State 20.4 from current points-for/against splits.
    • Miami averages 49.6 points; Florida State averages 31.0 through the current-season sample.
    • Miami’s 9.8 points allowed average can suppress Florida State and leave the game short.
    Tempo Board
    • the existing over 57 position is retained; the board moved down to a new same-side 56.5 rung, so this is not a blind repeat.
    • Both ACC opponents clear the FBS and current-sample gates; Ashton Daniels and Darian Mensah are supported by latest pass-attempt boxes, official availability, and a live web cross-check.
    • Most likely loss: Miami’s defense, which allows -0.1246 EPA/play, holds Florida State below 20 and forces Miami to carry an unusually large share of the total.
  2. Miami Hurricanes spread −20.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsLong Week, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Long Week
    • Miami: 0.504 offensive EPA/play, 58.2% success rate, and -0.125 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Florida State's 0.261, 50.0%, and +0.175.
    • Miami beat comparable Clemson 41-13; Florida State lost 50-36 to Alabama and 44-20 to Louisville.
    • Miami's five-game sample includes several weaker opponents, so its efficiency advantage may be overstated.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Five-game Miami sample: +0.5035 EPA/play, .5817 success rate, .1717 explosive rate; FSU has six current-season rows.
    • Miami allows -0.1246 defensive EPA/play; Florida State allows +0.1746, a 0.2992-point defensive mismatch.
    • Most likely loss: Miami wins by 20 or fewer as Florida State's +0.2606 offensive EPA/play travels better than expected.
  3. Miami Hurricanes to winFavoriteHigh conviction
    +7%Won

    Taken at −1400 on BetMGM

    Brewing CFB MoneylinesUp 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami leads recent adjusted FPI efficiency 92.10 to 63.40, with a 27.647-to-8.428 rating edge.
    • Recent EPA profile favors Miami: +0.3174 offense EPA/play and -0.0567 defense allowed versus FSU +0.1626 and +0.1463.
    • Miami has confirmed absences including OL Max Buchanan, RB CharMar Brown, and WR Joshua Moore.
  4. Over 57 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession count is the load-bearing factor: current-season averages combine for 138.6 plays per game, with Miami at 71.6 and Florida State at 67.0.
    • Efficiency convergence supports scoring: Miami averages 3.94 points per drive and 0.504 EPA/play; Florida State averages 2.82 points per drive and 0.261 EPA/play, with explosive rates of 17.2% and 16.6%.
    • Most likely loss: Miami's defense suppresses Florida State's offense, leaving 57 or fewer points; exactly 57 pushes.
  5. Miami Hurricanes first-half spread NO 9.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
  6. Ashton Daniels over 183.5 passing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Daniels cleared 183.5 in 4 of 6 2026 games, including 209 last week.
    • He attempted at least 18 passes in each 2026 appearance.
    • Florida State's recent offense averages 0.1626 EPA/play with a 48.9% success rate.
    • Miami's recent defense allowed negative 0.0567 EPA/play, a strong opposing signal.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Ousmane Kromah over 57.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of 6 2026 games cleared 57.5 rushing yards.
    • Kromah handled 11-22 carries in every logged 2026 appearance.
    • Florida State averages 0.1626 offensive EPA/play over the recent window.
    • Miami has allowed negative 0.0567 defensive EPA/play in its recent window.
  2. Game total under 56
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game FSU offense: +0.2606 EPA/play and .4999 success; Miami defense allows -0.1246 EPA/play.
    • FSU's latest game fell to +0.0287 EPA/play and .4026 success against Louisville, a warning against a balanced shootout.
    • Possession shape is moderate: FSU 27.31 seconds/play, Miami 29.97; PROE is +0.0599 and +0.1103.
    • Most likely loss: Miami's +0.5035 offensive EPA/play and .1717 explosive rate produce 40-plus points.
  3. Miami Hurricanes −19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 75/100: Grade B, qualifying edge.
    • ESPN pregame model projects Miami by 23.7; the -19.5 spread leaves a 4.2-point model margin.
    • Miami covered 9 of its last 10 tracked ATS results and 4 of its last 5.
    • Sharp reference is essentially neutral: Pinnacle's devigged fair probability was 50.9%, so the market does not confirm the model edge.
  4. Miami Hurricanes 1st-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 83¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami's last five average 0.504 offensive EPA/play, 58.2% success, and 3.94 points/drive.
    • Miami's recent scoring-margin form is +39.8 per game over five; Florida State is +3.4.
    • Darian Mensah and Ashton Daniels led their teams in last-game pass attempts; current game-day coverage reports no QB game-time decision.
    • The 2.7-point model disagreement versus the substitute Kalshi reference is modest for a three-way first-half market.
  5. Miami Hurricanes spread −21
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 six-game EPA: Miami +0.4722 offense and -0.0829 defense allowed; Florida State +0.2606 and +0.1746.
    • Miami is 5-0 with a +39.8 recent margin; Florida State is 3-3 with a +5.7 last-six margin.
    • Margin density is lumpy: exact 21 occurred 411 times, versus 179 at 20 and 150 at 22 in the CFB sample.
    • Most likely loss: Miami wins by 1, 20; exactly 21 pushes rather than wins.
  6. Total points over 58.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Miami averages 49.6 points and +0.504 EPA/play; FSU averages 31.0 and +0.261 EPA/play, while Miami's defense allows -0.125 EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: the game finishes at 58 or fewer; the model's scoring estimate is close to the 58.5 threshold.
  7. Game total over 57
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami’s efficient offense faces Florida State’s +0.175 current-season defensive EPA allowed per play; Florida State still brings +0.261 offensive EPA/play and 16.6% explosiveness.
    • Both QB gates are cleared: Ashton Daniels is supported by the latest box and official FSU reporting; Miami’s game-day notes confirm Darian Mensah. The 56.5, 57 reference range leaves 57 as the priced position.
    • Most likely loss: Miami’s defense stalls Florida State below 17 points, leaving the game dependent on an unusually large Hurricanes output.
  8. Game total over 56
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FBS-only profile shows Miami +0.399 offensive EPA/play and Florida State +0.218 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Miami’s FBS success rate is 55.6%; Florida State’s is 49.0%, creating a strong Miami scoring path against a weak Seminoles defense.
    • Expected starters Darian Mensah and Ashton Daniels were identified in a game-day preview; official reports show no QB availability issue.
    • Miami’s -0.088 FBS defensive EPA allowed could suppress Florida State enough to keep the game below 56.
  9. Miami Hurricanes spread −19
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026 EPA/play favors Miami: offense +0.504 vs Florida State +0.261; defense -0.125 vs +0.218.
    • Miami leads the same FBS-only sample in success rate (58.2% vs 49.0%), explosive rate (17.2% vs 14.4%), and PROE (11.0% vs 6.2%).
    • Pinnacle shows Miami -19.5 at -114; direction and nearby number support the projection, but sportsbook pricing is context only.
    • Miami must win by 20; exactly 19 is a push rather than a win, and Florida State can backdoor-cover with late scores.
  10. Miami Hurricanes first-half spread NO 7.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • College-specific histogram mass is computed: signed home margins of +3 and +7 occurred 225 and 182 times; 7.5 is immediately beyond the +7 mass.
    • This rung is thinner than 9.5, so displayed price discovery is less reliable despite the narrow spread.
  11. First-half total under 28.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FSU averages 11.17 drives and Miami 11.60; the direct half-drive midpoint is 11.38.
    • Raw team PPD is much higher than the sharp-calibrated 56.0 game total; schedule and matchup calibration remain uncertain.
  12. Over 56.5 total points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing Over 56.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Reference is venue self-reference only.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: Over and Under each show 3 levels.
  13. Miami Hurricanes spread −19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, Pinnacle also posts the same -19.5 line.
    • Miami's FPI rating is 27.647 versus Florida State's 8.428; ESPN projects Miami by 23.688 points.
    • Season EPA favors Miami: +0.504 offense and -0.125 defense versus Florida State's +0.261 and +0.175.
    • Most likely loss: Miami wins by 1, 19 or allows a late Florida State backdoor score.
  14. Game total over 58.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX’s captured over 57 was -101 at 4:36 PM, while its direct ladder at 4:41 PM offered over 58.5 at +100.
    • The worse 58.5 rung is therefore offered at a better price than the venue’s own lower 57 reference, a specific ladder inconsistency.
    • Live state is 7-0 with 1:10 left in Q1, requiring 52 additional points; Miami’s live offense is +0.5925 EPA/play and Florida State’s defense is allowing +0.5925.
    • Most likely loss: Miami controls the game early, then a clock-heavy second half plus Florida State’s -0.1216 live offensive EPA/play leaves the total below 59.

Questions

Who won Florida State vs. Miami?

The Miami won 43–35 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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