Holy Cross vs. HarvardFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHarvard Stadium

Holy Cross2–4

7–30Final

Harvard4–0

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOLY	0	7	0	0	7
HARV	7	6	10	7	30

Top model pick, graded

Won

Harvard Crimson −16.5 −110

Why D1 Winner likes it: Harvard averages +0.0836 offensive EPA/play and -0.0980 defensive EPA allowed/play; Holy Cross is -0.0220 and +0.1657.

D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-2 on this game · +8% return

Harvard Crimson −16.5
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Harvard averages +0.0836 offensive EPA/play and -0.0980 defensive EPA allowed/play; Holy Cross is -0.0220 and +0.1657.
- Harvard leads recent per-play success rate 47.7% to 43.1% and team grade 90.8 to 70.3.
- Market family converges: Harvard moved from roughly -15.5 to -16.5 at FanDuel while the core line remains near -15.5.
- Holy Cross had a bye and has a modest rest edge; Harvard has only seven days between games.
Harvard Crimson −15.5
+89%Won
Taken at −112 on williamhill_us
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- SRS rates Harvard -19.8 versus Holy Cross -41.9: 22.1-point neutral-field gap.
- Recent scoring-margin form favors Harvard by 18.4 points: +10.8 over four games versus Holy Cross -7.6 over five.
- EPA profile gap is substantial: Harvard net +0.1816 per play versus Holy Cross -0.1394.
- Harvard has covered this thesis on only a four-game sample, and its offense scored just 14 and 20 in two recent games.
Harvard Crimson spread −16.5
+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Harvard's recent offense EPA/play is +0.0836 and defense allows -0.0980; Holy Cross is -0.0220 offensively and allows +0.1657.
- PFF's 2026 team card favors Harvard 90.8 overall and 90.4 defense versus Holy Cross at 70.3 and 70.0.
- Key-number read: exact CFB margins of 16 occurred 157 times while 17 occurred 384 times; -16.5 wins on the denser 17-point outcome.
- Most likely loss: Harvard wins by exactly 16 or fewer, with 16 a direct loss at -16.5; Holy Cross can also win outright.
Total points over 48.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Cross-matchup scoring baseline is 48.7 points: Harvard scores 26.5 per game and Holy Cross allows 32.8, while Holy Cross scores 22.3 and Harvard allows 15.8.
- Harvard's 2026 offense has +0.0836 EPA/play; Holy Cross' defense allows +0.1657 EPA/play, creating a credible 30-plus-point Harvard path.
- QB gate cleared: Charlie Smith and David Lynch led their teams' latest passing rows; official Harvard and Holy Cross checks identified both as current quarterbacks with no availability designation.
- Most likely loss: Holy Cross remains near its season scoring average while Harvard's strong defense holds the Crusaders down, producing 48 or fewer.
Holy Cross Crusaders over 48.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, combined season scoring averages are 48.8 points, while Holy Cross has gone over 48.5 in 4 of its last 6.
- Holy Cross allows 32.8 points per game; its recent totals were 55, 68, 66, 52, 45 and 45, showing a high-variance scoring environment.
- Harvard's 47.5 sharp-market over is -110; ProphetX offers the over one point higher at +114, creating the structural price/number edge.
- Most likely loss: Harvard's defense controls the game and Holy Cross contributes little, leaving the total at 48 or lower.

Questions

Who won Holy Cross vs. Harvard?

The Harvard won 30–7 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.