Idaho State vs. Weber StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalStewart Stadium
Idaho State4–2
20–27Final
Weber State4–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDAH | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| WEBE | 6 | 0 | 13 | 8 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWeber State Wildcats +6.5 −115
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Fair spread: Idaho State -3.5; FanDuel offers Weber +6.5 at -115, a three-point modeled cushion.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · −12% return
- Game total over 63.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
2 modelsTempo Gap, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Tempo Gap- Both offenses are positive in current-season EPA/play (+0.129 Weber, +0.184 Idaho State) with 47.9% and 48.0% success rates; Weber's defense allows +0.182 EPA/play.
- Expected starters Nate Dahle and Jordan Cooke are verified; forecast is sunny near 65F with calm wind and no precipitation, while explosive rates are 15.7% and 13.5%.
- Idaho State's defense has allowed only 21.8 points per game and +0.030 EPA/play allowed, which could suppress Weber's scoring.
Long Way Home- Weber State's six 2026 game totals average 71.2 points; five of six cleared 63.5.
- A scoring/allowing blend from both teams' six-game profiles lands near 63.9 before matchup variance.
- Most likely loss: Idaho State slows the game or Weber's offense regresses, leaving 63 or fewer points.
- Weber State Wildcats +6.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair spread: Idaho State -3.5; FanDuel offers Weber +6.5 at -115, a three-point modeled cushion.
- Weber averages 42.7 points and 3.20 points per drive at home; Idaho State averages 28.5 points on the road.
- Both teams had a full week after Oct. 10 games; no rest disadvantage offsets Weber's home-field advantage.
- Idaho State's season defense allows only 0.030 EPA/play versus Weber's 0.182, a meaningful matchup edge for the favorite.
- Idaho State Bengals to win−100%Lost
Taken at −215 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency favors Idaho State: +0.184 offensive EPA/play versus Weber State's +0.129, with defensive EPA allowed +0.030 versus +0.182.
- Current preview names Jordan Cooke and Nate Dahle; Cooke has 1,634 yards, 14 TDs and 6 INTs versus Dahle's 1,418, 15 and 9.
- All three core families lean Idaho State: efficiency, quarterback/injury context, and the market's favorite signal; both teams have seven days' rest.
- The efficiency sample covers only six to seven 2026 games and is not a fully opponent-adjusted national model.
- Idaho State Bengals −5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on BetMGM
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (Grade B): qualifying edge, medium conviction.
- Blended margin estimate is Idaho State -8.0 versus the posted -5; estimated cover probability 58.5% versus 52.8% break-even.
- Idaho State leads Weber by 15.9 SRS points; current-season EPA/play is 0.197 vs 0.125 and defensive EPA allowed is 0.063 vs 0.127.
- Idaho State is only 1-2 ATS in its three 2026 games with posted spreads; the qualifying sample is thin.
- Weber State Wildcats to win+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Weber's live success rate is 55.6% versus Idaho State's 37.5% through the first quarter; the process edge is larger than the 7-6 score.
- Home/away form supports the venue adjustment: Weber averages a +12.3 margin at home, while Idaho State's away offense averages 28.5 points.
- Most likely loss: Weber's red-zone turnovers and Idaho State's defensive conversion advantage keep the Bengals ahead despite weaker drive efficiency.
- Weber State Wildcats spread +6.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- my EPA/form blend keeps Idaho State's expected margin below 6.5 after Weber's home adjustment.
- Weber's recent offense produced 38 against Idaho and 42 at Cal Poly; home scoring gives the underdog multiple cover paths.
- Pinnacle's live reference is Idaho State -5 (-115); ProphetX gives Weber +6.5 (-111), a 1.5-point cushion at slightly better juice.
- Most likely loss: Idaho State's stronger recent profile converts against Weber's volatile defense and wins by seven or more.
Questions
Who won Idaho State vs. Weber State?
The Weber State won 27–20 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.