Idaho vs. MontanaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWashington-Grizzly Stadium

Idaho1-5

42–35Final

Montana5-2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
IDAH	14	7	14	7	42
MONT	0	14	14	7	35

Top model pick, graded

Won

Idaho Vandals spread +17.5 −113

Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Season scoring margin points to roughly Montana -12, below the -17.5 market handicap.

Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-1 on this game · +146% return

Idaho Vandals spread +16.52 models agree
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsLong Way Home, ProphetX Pairs
Why 2 models like it
Long Way Home
- matchup averages project Montana 39.1, Idaho 26.8, a 12.2-point margin.
- Idaho has stayed within 16 points in five of six 2026 games; the lone miss was a 52-point Utah loss.
- Montana averages 38.1 points and Idaho allows 40.0, creating genuine blowout risk.
ProphetX Pairs
- $1,200 rests on Idaho +16.5 versus only $46 on Montana -16.5 at the same main number.
- Personnel gate, a current Oct. 17 preview identifies Keali’i Ah Yat and Joshua Wood as the Montana and Idaho quarterbacks, with no reported QB availability issue.
- Current form cuts against Idaho: Montana is 3-2 with a +8.6 recent scoring margin; Idaho is 1-4 at -14.0.
Idaho Vandals spread +17.5
+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season scoring margin points to roughly Montana -12, below the -17.5 market handicap.
- Montana's defense allows 0.07 EPA/play, but Idaho's offense averages 0.13 EPA/play and 27.7 points.
- Both teams have seven days' rest; confirmed starters are Joshua Wood and Keali'i Ah Yat.
- Montana averages 38.1 points and Idaho allows 40.0, so a defensive collapse can create a runaway.
Game total over 62.5
+72%Won
Taken at −138 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Per-play efficiency favors a high-scoring setup: Montana offense averaged 0.28 PPA; Idaho defense allowed 0.29 PPA through Week 6.
- QB/Injury family supports scoring: Ah Yat posted 68.7% completions with 17 TD/2 INT; Wood had 9 TD/4 INT, and no current QB injury was reported.
- Market family confirms the direction: total moved from 59.5 to 62.5, while recent combined scoring averaged 67.0 points.
- Montana can shorten the game after building a lead; its 2026 tempo sample is slower than Idaho's.
Montana Grizzlies spread −17.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Montana's last-five offense averages 0.27 EPA/play and 3.03 points/drive; Idaho posts 0.07 and 2.32.
- 2026 PFF team card favors Montana 85.7 overall and 82.6 offense versus Idaho's 73.7 and 73.1.
- Pinnacle's -17 and DraftKings' -16.5 reference lines corroborate Montana near this margin, but ProphetX pays the better -17.5 rung.
- Montana just lost 49-44 to Northern Arizona, and its recent-five defense allowed 0.29 EPA/play.
Idaho Vandals to winLong shot
+614%Won
Taken at 14¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Montana's 2026 average margin is +12.14, below the market's 16.5-point spread; a margin-based estimate gives Idaho about an 18% win chance.
- A midpoint of the teams' scoring profiles projects roughly Montana 39, Idaho 27; Montana's 26.0 points allowed and +0.07 defensive EPA/play are not dominant.
- Idaho still averages +0.13 offensive EPA/play and 27.7 points despite a difficult 1-5 record, giving the underdog more upset paths than the price implies.
- Most likely loss: Montana's 5-2 form and +0.25 offensive EPA/play overwhelm Idaho early, producing a multi-score home win.

Questions

Who won Idaho vs. Montana?

Idaho won 42-35 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.