Illinois State vs. Southern IllinoisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSaluki Stadium
Illinois State4–2
35–14Final
Southern Illinois3–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 0 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 35 |
| SOUT | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 54.5 −110
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): qualifying edge with moderate risk.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +57% return
- Southern Illinois +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Game total under 54.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): qualifying edge with moderate risk.
- Actual totals stayed under 54.5 in 8 of each team's last 10 completed games.
- L5 threshold hit rates are Illinois State 4/5 and Southern Illinois 5/5; current-season rates are 4/6 and 5/7.
- Illinois State averages 38.2 points and has enough explosive offense to break the number quickly.
- Game total under 53.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION; reference label: SHARP REFERENCE.
- A simple offense/defense blend projects 53.2 points: Illinois State 32.3, Southern Illinois 20.9.
- Illinois State's latest two games produced 14 and 21 points; Southern Illinois' latest two produced 10 and 16.
- Most likely loss: Southern Illinois generates explosive home possessions or Illinois State reaches its 38.2-point scoring average.
- Illinois State Redbirds spread −7+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, Illinois State's away offense averages +0.176 EPA/play and 30.0 points versus Southern Illinois home offense at +0.014 and 25.0.
- Illinois State's away success rate is 50.2% versus Southern Illinois' 41.2% at home, supporting the favorite's margin path.
- same-line market references price Illinois State -7 around -110 to -115; ProphetX offers +101 / 49.75¢.
- Most likely loss: Southern Illinois wins outright or Illinois State wins by six or fewer at home.
Questions
Who won Illinois State vs. Southern Illinois?
The Illinois State won 35–14 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.