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Kansas vs. Kansas StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBill Snyder Family Stadium
Kansas2–3
24–35Final
Kansas State3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
KU2004024
KSU71171035

Top model pick, graded

Won

Kansas State Wildcats spread −3.5 48¢

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 19-5 on this game · +60% return

  1. Kansas State Wildcats spread −52 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • five-game 2026 FBS sample: Kansas State offense averages +0.2635 EPA/play versus Kansas defense allowing -0.0749; the matchup composite favors K-State.
    • PFF supports the matchup's trench angle: Kansas State pass-block grade 85.3 versus Kansas 60.8, despite Kansas holding the higher overall grade.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas's stronger overall (93.8) and defensive (86.3) PFF grades suppress K-State's offense and produce a one-score rivalry game.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: Kansas State leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.263 to 0.120 and success rate 52.4% to 46.8%.
    • Kansas State's five-game scoring-margin average is +16.4 versus Kansas at +11.8, with home field favoring the Wildcats.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas State wins by 1-4 or loses outright, leaving the -5 spread short.
  2. Kansas State Wildcats to win2 models agree
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Kansas State averages +0.263 offensive EPA/play versus Kansas at +0.120 across five 2026 FBS games.
    • Kansas State leads the same sample in success rate, 52.4% to 46.8%, and gets the home field; my fair estimate is 63%.
    • Kansas has the better defensive EPA allowed, -0.075 versus Kansas State's -0.011, and the higher explosive-play rate, 18.2% versus 11.6%.
    Long Way Home
    • ProphetX prices Kansas State +3.5 at -101 (50.25¢) but its moneyline at +162 (38.17¢), an unusually wide related-market gap after an early 7-point deficit.
    • Kansas State produced a 45-yard pass, a 59-yard rush and a touchdown on its opening drive; its live offensive EPA/play is +0.427 versus Kansas at -0.072.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas sustains its 14-7 lead and converts the early advantage into a controlled win.
  3. Kansas State Wildcats spread −3.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
  4. Over 55.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • About 22.0 adjusted combined possessions, 2.80/3.07 points per drive, and 18.2%/11.6% explosive rates converge toward the Over.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas State and Kansas repeat their Week 6 offensive struggles, keeping the game at 55 points or fewer.
  5. Kansas State Wildcats spread −3
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current efficiency gap favors K-State: +0.263 EPA/play offense versus Kansas +0.120, with K-State's defensive EPA allowed 0.064 lower.
    • Model margin mean is K-State +5.0 with SD about 17; K-State -3 fair probability 55.0%.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas converts its higher current explosive rate and wins the turnover/short-field battle, keeping K-State below a four-point margin.
  6. Nik McMillan under 3.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −138 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Share shrank 27.3% to 16.2% while yards per target rose 4.9 to 14.8, the required usage-production divergence for an under.
    • PFF route rates stayed high at 91.2%, 90.5%, and 96.6%, so this is a share-based under rather than an assumed role loss.
    • Kansas threw 37 times most recently, but Kansas State's recent pace was 28.88 seconds per play; the under does not require a dead passing game.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas keeps throwing, McMillan's 16% share rebounds toward his earlier 27%, and he converts four receptions.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Avery Johnson rushing yards under 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Avery stayed under 44.5 in 3 of his 5 2026 games (39, 38, 152, 78, 23 yards).
    • Kansas ranks 34th of 315 2026 teams in defensive EPA allowed (-0.0749), a top-35% matchup for the under.
    • FanDuel under price improved from -112 to -110 from 4:55 AM to 7:10 AM PDT.
    • Kansas State may trail or need designed quarterback runs despite Kansas's strong defensive profile.
  2. Kansas State Wildcats −3.5
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kansas State leads recent per-play offense EPA 0.2635 to 0.1198 and success rate 52.4% to 46.8%.
    • Home setting plus one extra rest day supports the Wildcats in a matchup priced near a field goal.
    • ESPN's independent game model projects only a 3.794-point K-State margin, leaving little room beyond -3.5.
  3. Jaron Tibbs under 49.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP grade 72/100; FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%, versus my 61% win estimate.
    • Tibbs is under in 7 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5 qualifying games.
    • His 2026 mean is 40.2 yards, an 18.8% projection gap below 49.5.
    • Kansas State's recent offense produced +0.1949 EPA/play, creating efficiency and scoring upside.
  4. Rodney Fields Jr. under 69.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP grade 73/100; FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%, versus my 61% win estimate.
    • Fields is under in 6 of his last 10 and 3 of his last 5 qualifying games.
    • His 2026 mean is 60.0 rushing yards, 13.7% below the 69.5 line.
    • Fields exceeded this line in two of his last five games, both above 100 yards.
  5. Avery Johnson under 234.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP grade 74/100; FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%, versus my 62% win estimate.
    • Avery is under in 9 of his last 10 qualifying games, including 4 of 5 in 2026.
    • 2026 mean is 218.4 passing yards, a 6.9% projection gap below 234.5.
    • Kansas recent defense allowed +0.0551 EPA/play, and its 61.4 coverage grade can inflate efficiency.
  6. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-five points per drive: Kansas 2.80, Kansas State 3.07; both offenses project above the 10.5 threshold quickly.
    • Kansas State's +9.4% PROE and 52.4% success rate indicate an aggressive, efficient opening script; Kansas averaged a 26.87-second pace.
    • DraftKings' same-game 1Q reference is 13.5, with Over -110; Kalshi's Over 10.5 is only 50c with a tight 1c spread and 1,803 contracts traded.
    • A first quarter is roughly five possessions per team; one turnover, missed field goal, or stalled red-zone drive can erase the modeled edge.
  7. Kansas State Wildcats 1st-half winner
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • K-State averaged .263 offensive EPA/play and .524 success rate over five 2026 games, versus Kansas at .120 and .468.
    • K-State's +9.4% PROE and 28.88-second pace support an aggressive, higher-possession opening script.
    • Starting QBs are confirmed: Avery Johnson for K-State and Isaiah Marshall for Kansas.
    • K-State's sample includes 71 points against Nicholls and 34 against Washington State; opponent strength is not adjusted.
  8. Kansas Jayhawks @ Kansas State Wildcats over 55.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so this qualifies on the core two-measure pairing but gets no corroboration from level count.
    • ProphetX is the only depth source; backing over, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Existing over 56 is held, but 55.5 is the newly moved same-side line.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the read: over 3 versus under 3, and the quoted over size is still substantial rather than tiny.
  9. Over 56 total points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: over 3, under 3. The two primary measures agree; level count is neutral.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides show 3 levels.
  10. Total points over 54
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kansas State averages 0.2635 offensive EPA/play and Kansas 0.1198; their current scoring averages combine for 69.2 points.
    • Quarterback gate cleared: Isaiah Marshall led Kansas's latest passing row and is identified by Kansas's official preview; Avery Johnson's official K-State report says he makes his 32nd start.
    • Most likely loss: defensive red-zone stops or stalled drives leave 54 or fewer points; exactly 54 pushes rather than wins.
  11. Game total under 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • This is a permitted same-side new-line update to the existing under 56: the current main board total is 55.5.
    • Both defenses are positive for the under lens by allowed EPA: Kansas -0.0749 and K-State -0.0112; current PFF defenses grade 86.3 and 75.6.
    • Kansas averages 0.1198 offensive EPA/play and K-State averages 0.2635, so this is not a dominant defensive matchup.
  12. Game total under 56
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION support: 2026 five-game pace is 26.87 seconds/play for Kansas and 28.88 for K-State; recent success rates are .468 and .524, not an obvious pace-outlier shootout.
    • Five-game scoring/defense cross-match is roughly 55.1 total points: Kansas 33.6 scored/21.8 allowed, K-State 35.6 scored/19.2 allowed.
    • Kansas averages 33.6 points and has a .1817 explosive-play rate; one or two short fields can clear 56.
  13. Kansas State Wildcats first-half spread NO 2.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2024, 26 regular-FBS sample has 2,584 finals and full-game margin SD 15.77; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 11.15.
    • 2026 margin averages imply K-State +4.6 full, or +2.3 at halftime; P(K-State margin >2.5) is 49.3%, so NO is 50.7%.
    • Pinnacle’s K-State -3.5 full-game spread scales to roughly +1.75 at halftime, directionally supporting NO at this rung.
    • Only a 2.7-point probability edge over the executable NO price; this is below the recommended band and sized at 0.25 units.
  14. Kansas State Wildcats over 30.5 team points
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.338 EPA/play opponent-adjusted delta: Kansas State offense 0.2635 minus Kansas defensive EPA allowed -0.0749 across five current-season games each.
    • Kansas State QB Dillon Duff is officially Game Time Decision at 8:00am; Blake Barnett is out, and no game-specific X signal was found. This caps the play at 0.5u.
  15. Isaiah Marshall passing yards under 220.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Isaiah stayed under 220.5 passing yards in 3 of his 5 2026 games (333, 161, 235, 168, 246 yards).
    • The FanDuel under price improved from -114 to -112 between 4:55 AM and 7:10 AM PDT.
    • Isaiah has appeared in every Kansas game with a passing line this season, confirming active rotation.
    • Kansas State's defense ranks only 76th of 315 in current-season defensive EPA allowed, so the matchup gate does not add support.
  16. First-half total over 27.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kansas/K-State PPD baselines are 2.80/3.07; PROE averages 6.1%/9.4% and explosive rates 18.2%/11.6% produce a specific 5.1% script uplift.
    • No independent sharp first-half total is posted; this is a shown-math full-game scaling reference, so the play is LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.

Questions

Who won Kansas vs. Kansas State?

The Kansas State won 35–24 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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