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Kent State vs. South FloridaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRaymond James Stadium
Kent State2–4
2–29Final
South Florida4–2
Score by period
Team1234T
KENT20002
USF01071229

Top model pick, graded

Won

South Florida Bulls −20.5 −110

Why NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant likes it: Recent 10-game net EPA/play: USF +0.1869 vs Kent State -0.1966, a 0.3835 gap above the brief's 0.10 high-conviction metric.

NCAAF Trend & Market Flow QuantUp 20% return this season · 19 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-4 on this game · +48% return

  1. South Florida Bulls −20.52 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant, Rnj
    Why 2 models like it
    NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant
    • Recent 10-game net EPA/play: USF +0.1869 vs Kent State -0.1966, a 0.3835 gap above the brief's 0.10 high-conviction metric.
    • South Florida is 8-4 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons: 66.7% across 12 games, clearing the 10-game/65% gate.
    • USF is only 2-4 ATS this season, so the three-season trend may not carry into this roster and coaching transition.
    Rnj
    • FPI projects South Florida +23.32; the market is Bulls -20.5, creating a 2.82-point baseline edge.
    • only season: USF averages +2.2 margin and 1.98 points/drive; Kent averages −26.8 and 0.89, excluding both FCS games.
    • The 2.76-point final fair-margin edge is modest; ordinary college-football margin variance can erase it.
  2. South Florida Bulls to winFavorite2 models agree
    +7%Won

    Taken at −1400 on BetMGM

    2 modelsD1 Winner, Brewing CFB Moneylines
    Why 2 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • USF averages +0.161 offensive EPA/play and 51.6% success; Kent State is -0.129 and 39.5%.
    • USF defense allows 0.030 EPA/play versus Kent State's 0.153 allowed; explosive-play edge is 11.2% to 8.3%.
    • The model edge is only 4.38 points and the -1400 price leaves minimal margin over the raw break-even.
    Brewing CFB Moneylines
    • South Florida defense EPA allowed is +0.0082 versus Kent State +0.1203; lower is better, supporting the matchup gap.
    • Both projected starters are established as active starters: Michael Van Buren Jr. and Dru DeShields each started all six 2026 games.
    • South Florida's official game-specific QB injury feed has no team designation on file; the starter read relies on the current six-game usage/depth evidence.
  3. Game total under 452 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • offense/defense blend projects USF 27.8 plus Kent State 13.3, or 41.1 total points.
    • only averages: USF +0.070 offensive EPA/play and +0.036 defensive EPA allowed; Kent State -0.165 and +0.202.
    • USF’s offense can exploit Kent State’s 36.0 points allowed per FBS game, creating a blowout-driven over path.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION edge; NO REFERENCE, six-game scoring cross-blend centers at 44.8 total points.
    • Kent State averages 13.7 points with -0.129 EPA/play and a 39.5% success rate through six games.
    • South Florida averages 26.2 points and Kent State allows 32.5; USF could score 35-plus alone.
  4. South Florida Bulls first-half spread NO 10.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,612 2024, 26 FBS regular-season finals give signed-margin SD 15.75; square-root scaling gives 1H SD 11.14.
    • Six-game scoring blend: South Florida expected 29.34, Kent State 15.50; raw full-game mean +13.84, or +6.92 at halftime.
    • Pinnacle posted South Florida -21 at +100; its half-game anchor is +10.5. Conservative blend gives μ1H +8.71.
    • LEAN only: no independent first-half sharp price; the 56.4% reference is model-derived and conservatively blended.
  5. South Florida Bulls spread −19
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game FBS sample: South Florida owns +0.1609 EPA/play and .5163 success versus Kent State at -0.1287 and .3954.
    • South Florida averages 2.467 points per drive versus Kent State's 1.126; explosive rates are .1123 versus .0825.
    • Personnel gate cleared: DeShields and Van Buren led latest passing boxes; current Yahoo preview identifies both as starters.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida wins but by 19 or fewer after Kent State produces a late backdoor score.
  6. 1st-half total under 23.5 points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17.8 combined average first-half points across each team's last five games, 5.7 below the 23.5 threshold.
    • Kent State averaged 6.8 first-half points; its recent offense posted 0.388 success rate and -0.123 EPA/play.
    • South Florida averaged 11.0 first-half points, but its 2.54 recent points-per-drive base still projects below this ladder with normal possessions.
    • South Florida's first-half scoring is volatile; it produced 28 points before halftime against Delaware State.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Game total under 46.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is 42.0 points, 4.5 below the 46.5 market.
    • South Florida averages 26.2 points; Kent State averages 13.7 through six games.
    • Kent State: -0.129 offensive EPA/play and 39.5% success rate.
    • South Florida's +0.161 offensive EPA/play can create a lopsided scoring burst.
  2. South Florida Bulls spread −21
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number density: exact 21-point margins occurred 411 times, versus 179 at 20 and 150 at 22; the -20.5/-21 rung gap is 2.68 probability points.
    • Six-game form favors USF: +8.8 average margin versus Kent State -18.8; EPA/play is +0.1609 versus -0.1287, with defensive EPA allowed +0.0297 versus +0.1530.
    • QB gate cleared: latest box leaders are Michael Van Buren Jr. (29 attempts) and Dru DeShields (35); the Oct. 16 preview says Van Buren remains the starter and DeShields is a second-year starter.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida wins by 1-20; exactly 21 is a push rather than a win.
  3. Total points over 45
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • South Florida averages +0.1609 EPA/play and 2.467 points per drive; Kent State is -0.1287 EPA/play and 1.126 points per drive.
    • Kent State allows +0.153 defensive EPA/play, while South Florida generates a .1123 explosive-play rate; the matchup shifts scoring above the 45-point rung.
    • sportsbook totals are 45.5 at Pinnacle and 46.5 at DraftKings/FanDuel, leaving ProphetX's 45 below the reference range.
    • Most likely loss: Kent State's weak offense stalls and South Florida finishes the game in the low 30s, leaving 45 or fewer points.
  4. South Florida Bulls spread over 21.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's -20.5 anchor devigs to 50.7% for South Florida cover.
    • point margin SD anchored to -20.5 gives about 48% for a 22+ point win.
    • This is one point from the sharp anchor; adjacent spread rungs are monotone and 21.5 has 463.82 contracts traded.
    • The roughly 4-point model edge is an anchor extrapolation, not a matchup-specific margin model.
  5. Kent State Golden Flashes under 14.5 team points
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA delta is -0.1584/play: Kent State -0.1287 minus South Florida defensive allowance +0.0297 across six games each.
    • Kent State's last-five red-zone rate is 9/15 (.600); South Florida allowed 5/13 (.385), triggering the defense-side UNDER read.
    • Pace is mixed and noisy: Kent State is 25.02 seconds/play versus South Florida 15.62, with several malformed sub-five-second rows; this caps the play at 0.5u.
  6. Game total under 46
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game sample: Kent State offense is -0.1287 EPA/play and .3954 success rate against South Florida's +0.0297 defensive EPA allowed.
    • QB gate cleared: Dru DeShields and Michael Van Buren Jr. led their teams' latest passing rows; Yahoo's Oct. 16 preview names both expected starters.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida's offense exploits Kent State's +.153 defensive EPA allowed and reaches 35-plus, needing only modest Kent scoring to beat 46.
  7. Game first-half total under 23.5 points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31 first-half drives per team across six games gives 5.17 each historically.
    • Recent valid pace blends to 27.95 seconds/play; 1,800 seconds less a 10% stoppage haircut gives 58.0 plays.
    • Specific uplift proxy: 5.9% mean PROE and 9.7% mean explosive rate produce 7.8%; projection is 19.0 points.
    • Six-game sample; several pace rows contain obvious sub-15-second corruption and were excluded.
  8. Kent State Golden Flashes spread +19
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only, the signal comes entirely from ProphetX's own ladder, not an independent source.
    • Book_levels are Kent State 3 vs South Florida 3; the tie leaves two of three measures aligned. Backing Kent State, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book_levels do not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels, so the signal is only the two-measure core pairing.
  9. Kent State Golden Flashes spread +21
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE. Current-season scoring averages (USF 26.2 for/17.3 against; Kent 13.7/32.5) blend to roughly USF 29, Kent 16, about a 14-point margin.
    • That projection is approximately seven points below ProphetX's 21-point spread, creating a modest cushion for the underdog.
    • Most likely ticket loss: South Florida's defense turns Kent's -0.129 average offensive EPA into another early multi-score rout.
    • Kent has allowed 32.5 points per game, including 57 to South Carolina, 59 to Ohio State, and 38 to Western Michigan.
  10. Game total over 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Valid 2026 pace samples are moderate: Kent State 28.94 seconds/play across five usable games and South Florida 28.43 across three.
    • QB gate cleared: Dru DeShields led Kent State's latest box with 35 pass attempts and Michael Van Buren Jr. led South Florida with 29; official school releases identify both as established starters.
    • South Florida has only three usable pace observations; three malformed sub-15-second entries make its possession estimate fragile.

Questions

Who won Kent State vs. South Florida?

The South Florida won 29–2 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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