Lehigh vs. CornellFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSchoellkopf Field
Lehigh6–0
38–48Final
Cornell2–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEHI | 7 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
| CORN | 14 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 48 |
Top model pick, graded
WonCornell Big Red spread +10.5 −110
Why Bills Belichicks likes it: +10.5 clears the underdog gate; FanDuel posted -110 on the current 10.5 spread.
Bills BelichicksDown 11% this season · 28 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-5 on this game · −45% return
- Game total under 46.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Lehigh's defense has allowed -0.136 EPA/play through six games; Cornell's offense is only +0.054 EPA/play through four.
- The market total is 46.5; my fair total is 44.0 after weighting Lehigh's defense and the weather adjustment.
- Cornell averages 27.3 points per game and Lehigh has allowed 20 or more in two of its last three listed games.
Long Way Home- Lehigh is 6-0 with a +21.8 average margin, scoring 33.7 and allowing 11.8 points per game.
- Own win estimate is 54%; the edge is the lower-scoring projection, not the plus-money payout.
- Most likely loss: Cornell's home offense and Lehigh's 6-0 attack combine for 47 or more through explosive plays or short fields.
- Cornell Big Red spread +10.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Bills BelichicksDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +10.5 clears the underdog gate; FanDuel posted -110 on the current 10.5 spread.
- Cornell coach Dan Swanstrom owns a verified 32-11 prior head-coaching record (74.4%).
- Lehigh coach Rich Nagy's verified prior head-coaching record was 10-20 (33.3%): a 41.1-point career win-rate gap.
- Lehigh is 6-0 with a +21.8 average margin; Cornell is 2-2 with only a +2.2 average margin.
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks to win−100%Lost
Taken at −450 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lehigh's recent offense EPA/play is +0.2135 versus Cornell's +0.0542; defensive EPA allowed is -0.1348 versus +0.0339.
- PFF's 2026 team grade favors Lehigh 93.5, 86.3, including an 84.8, 67.4 offensive-grade gap.
- QB/injury family still favors Lehigh: Derek Morgan has recent starting reps and 152 yards with three TDs in the latest game; Cornell's Garrett Bass-Sulpizio threw two interceptions last week.
- Hayden Johnson's injury leaves Lehigh's quarterback situation less stable than the market may assume; official availability detail is limited.
- Cornell Big Red +11.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): estimated cover probability 57% versus roughly 52.4% break-even at -110.
- SRS rates Lehigh only 9.4 points better on a neutral field; home-field adjustment leaves a projection near Lehigh -6 to -7.
- Lehigh's 6-0 form and 91.5 defensive grade support Cornell's competitiveness more than a straight-up upset case.
- Lehigh is 6-0 with a 93.5 overall grade and returns from a bye, creating blowout risk if Cornell's offense stalls.
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks −11.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lehigh leads Cornell by 0.172 EPA/play offensively: 0.226 vs 0.054; defensive EPA allowed is -0.136 vs +0.034.
- Lehigh is 6-0 and had a bye after Oct. 3; Cornell played at Harvard on Oct. 10 and lost 41-29.
- Current matchup listings identify Derek Morgan and Garrett Bass-Sulpizio as the respective starting quarterbacks.
- Cornell is at home and has scored 27.3 points per game across its four 2026 games.
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks spread −11.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lehigh's six-game profile is +0.226 offensive EPA/play and -0.136 defensive EPA allowed; Cornell is +0.054 and +0.034, respectively.
- Lehigh is 6-0 and averages 33.7 points scored versus 11.8 allowed; Cornell is 2-2 at 27.3 scored and 25.0 allowed.
- the same-line captured Pinnacle price is Lehigh -11.5 at -102; ProphetX improves the price to +106.
- Most likely loss: Cornell's home offense stays efficient enough to lose by 11 or fewer despite Lehigh's stronger profile.
Questions
Who won Lehigh vs. Cornell?
The Cornell won 48–38 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.