Lindenwood vs. Eastern IllinoisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalO'Brien Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIND | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| EAST | 0 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-4 on this game · −100% return
- Game total over 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 123.3 combined plays from five Lindenwood and six Eastern Illinois games; expected score blend is 26.0-28.0.
- Defensive EPA allowed is +0.267 for Lindenwood and +0.125 for Eastern Illinois, supporting opponent-adjusted scoring efficiency.
- Both quarterbacks are verified: Pops Battle has 878 total yards; Cole LaCrue has 104 straight pass attempts without an interception.
- Both offenses have negative EPA per play: Lindenwood -0.047 and Eastern Illinois -0.010, with success rates of 39.3% and 38.9%.
- Total points over 48.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-form totals average 53.4 points across the teams' last five completed games: Lindenwood 52.8, Eastern Illinois 54.0.
- The 2026 CFB histogram has 514 of 823 regular/postseason games above 48 points (62.5%); the 2014-26 rate is 63.7%.
- Pinnacle and DraftKings center the full-game total at 49.5, corroborating the over side at this lower executable rung.
- Most likely loss: both weak offenses, each near -0.11 recent offensive EPA/play, combine for 48 or fewer.
- Eastern Illinois −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; own estimate is 55.5% to cover versus 51.46c implied at ProphetX -106.
- Eastern Illinois is better in 2026 efficiency: -0.010 offensive EPA/play and +0.125 defensive EPA/play versus Lindenwood's -0.047 and +0.267.
- Eastern Illinois has the recent form signal: 21-7 at Gardner-Webb; Lindenwood just lost 27-38 to Southeast Missouri State.
- Both offenses are poor, and Eastern Illinois' aggregate scoring is only 18.5 points per game across six games.
- Game total over 49.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The current-season game-total averages are 56.4 for Eastern Illinois and 52.8 for Lindenwood, pointing above 49.5 before matchup adjustment.
- Both offenses are below-average by EPA (-0.010 and -0.047/play), but both defenses allow 33.6-plus points per game and positive defensive EPA allowed.
- Most likely loss: both negative-EPA offenses stall in the red zone and the game remains in the 40s.
Questions
Who won Lindenwood vs. Eastern Illinois?
The Lindenwood won 20–13 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.