Long Island University vs. WagnerFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHameline Field at Wagner College Stadium
Long Island University2–5
14–9Final
Wagner1–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| WAGN | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWagner Seahawks spread +7 53¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: CFB margin 7 occurred 878/11,223 times (7.8%); +7 captures key-number mass beyond -6.5.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-0 on this game · +99% return
- Wagner Seahawks spread +7+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB margin 7 occurred 878/11,223 times (7.8%); +7 captures key-number mass beyond -6.5.
- Efficiency gap is real but modest: LIU -0.106 EPA/play versus Wagner -0.149; defensive EPA allowed favors LIU 0.118 to 0.198.
- QB gate cleared: Stanzani and Newman led the latest passing rows; Fox’s pregame boxscore lists both as starters.
- Most likely loss: LIU’s defensive edge and Wagner’s 1-5 record produce a double-digit LIU win.
- Wagner Seahawks spread +6.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The tougher +6.5 rung is priced dramatically longer than the wider +7 rung, an inverted ladder that creates the structural edge.
- Projection support: both offenses average 14.7 points per game or fewer; Wagner's 0.349 success rate and 0.0546 explosive rate favor a low-margin script.
- sportsbook event listing omitted this matchup; the claim relies on ProphetX's live internal ladder plus the CFB efficiency profile.
- Wagner's defense has allowed 40.7 points per game, leaving a clear path for Long Island to win by seven or more.
- Game total under 40.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- My matchup projection is 38-39 points after discounting Wagner's inflated 87-3 and 49-7 defensive totals against stronger opponents.
- LIU's latest two games totaled 51 and 31 points, but its offense scored 17 last week and Wagner's offense remains the weaker unit.
- LIU has allowed 29.4 points per game across seven games, and Wagner's recent totals include 90, 56, and 59.
Questions
Who won Long Island University vs. Wagner?
The Long Island University won 14–9 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.