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Louisiana Tech vs. UL MonroeFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMalone Stadium
Louisiana Tech3–2
24–0Final
UL Monroe0–5
Score by period
Team1234T
LT00141024
ULM00000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs spread −13.5 52¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Pinnacle exact -13.5: Louisiana Tech -110 / UL Monroe +13.5 -102; devigged Louisiana Tech fair is 50.9%.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-11 on this game · −29% return

  1. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs spread −13.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Pinnacle exact -13.5: Louisiana Tech -110 / UL Monroe +13.5 -102; devigged Louisiana Tech fair is 50.9%.
    • Most likely loss: ULM holds Louisiana Tech to 13 or fewer, or wins outright at home.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Five-game 2026 sample: Tech posts +0.0975 offensive EPA/play, .4584 success and .1402 explosive rate; ULM allows +0.3160 defensive EPA/play.
    • Defensive mismatch: Tech allows +0.0600 EPA/play, while ULM allows +0.3160; the 0.2560 gap supports Tech separation.
    • Most likely loss: Tech wins by 13 or fewer after ULM's +0.1724 offensive EPA/play sustains enough drives for a backdoor cover.
  2. Game total over 562 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • UL Monroe’s five-game offense is +0.172 EPA/play and .459 success versus Louisiana Tech’s +0.060 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Louisiana Tech’s offense is +0.097 EPA/play and .458 success against UL Monroe’s +0.316 defensive EPA allowed, creating a second scoring path.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana Tech controls field position, UL Monroe stalls, and the game finishes below 57.
    Tempo Board
    • QB gate: Blake Baker and Aidan Armenta led the latest pass-attempt boxes, and a same-day Fox Sports search listed both as the starting quarterbacks.
    • The raw Louisiana Tech pace feed contains anomalous 2.47 and 6.42 values; only three clearly usable current pace games remain, making possession count fragile.
  3. Under 56 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial coverage: both are FBS Sun Belt teams with five 2026 advanced rows each; same-day reporting names Blake Baker and Aidan Armenta, both cross-checked as latest pass-attempt leaders.
    • Load-bearing possession check: 138.2 combined current plays and 4.61 combined points per drive; after discounting blowout contamination, the modeled total is 54.7, below 56.
    • Most likely loss: ULM's 0.316 defensive EPA allowed and Louisiana Tech's 14.0% explosive rate create short fields and efficient touchdowns.
  4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs first-half spread NO 2.5Long shot
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game favorite margin 13.5; halved mean is 6.75, near my 6.6 projection.
    • naive half-SD is 11.26; square-root scaling materially increases the probability of a two-point-or-less half.
    • ULM's official preview did not name a starter; Yahoo says Aidan Armenta remains quarterback, while warehouse starts also favor him.
  5. Game total over 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent scoring/allowing blend projects 66.6 points versus the 55.5 line (+20.0%).
    • Both teams went over 55.5 in 4 of 5 current-season games; each is 6-4 over the last 10 at this threshold.
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.8%; my estimate is 62%, with UL Monroe allowing 44.6 points per game this season.
    • The total fell from 56.5 to 55.5 while over juice worsened from -108 to -114, opposing the over signal.
  6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 1st-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game average off EPA/play: Louisiana Tech +0.097 vs ULM defensive EPA allowed +0.316.
    • Last-game pass leaders were Blake Baker (42 attempts) and Aidan Armenta (41); current previews identify both in the matchup with no unresolved status noted.
    • Five games is a thin sample, and ULM's offense still owns a positive recent EPA/play average of 0.172.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Game first-half total over 13.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six live drives consumed 14:23; 12.5 historical combined first-half drives implies about 6.5 remaining.
    • PROJECTION edge class; 9-mph gust and zero precipitation do not warrant a drive-count cut.
    • The first six drives produced zero points; one more stalled red-zone sequence can keep the half below 14.
  2. Over 58.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3, 3, so the two core measures qualify; backing Over, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 levels each; the signal is only the two-measure core pairing.
  3. UL Monroe Warhawks spread +13
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3, 3, so the two core measures qualify; backing UL Monroe, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 levels each; the signal is only the two-measure core pairing.
  4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs to winFavorite
    +18%Won

    Taken at −550 on FanDuel

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 88.9% ESPN pregame win model versus 81.7% devigged sharp-market probability: +7.2 points.
    • FPI rates Louisiana Tech -5.013 versus ULM -24.824, a 19.811-point team-strength gap.
    • ESPN projects Louisiana Tech by 17.7 points; the market's moneyline implies a materially tighter result.
    • ULM's offense has produced 0.172 EPA/play this season, creating upset-path volatility despite its 0-5 record.
  5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and UL Monroe Warhawks total points over 53.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number density: over 53.5 captures 54; ProphetX drops only 1.08 points from over 53.5 to over 54 despite 210 exact-54 totals in 11,261 games.
    • The teams average 35.2 and 24.0 points; both offenses are positive EPA, while ULM allows +0.316 defensive EPA/play.
    • Louisiana Tech's 17.45-second pace can add possessions; current box leaders and game coverage identify Blake Baker and Aidan Armenta at quarterback.
    • Most likely loss: ULM's offense stalls and the game finishes at 53 or fewer; there is no push at 53.5.
  6. Game total over 54
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026 games: ULM allows 46.25 points and Louisiana Tech allows 35.25.
    • ULM’s FBS defense allows +0.362 EPA/play; Louisiana Tech’s allows +0.181, supporting points on both sides.
    • FBS scoring samples average 67.5 ULM-game points and 59.25 Louisiana Tech-game points; current report names Armenta and Baker.
    • Only four FBS games per team; opponent adjustment and simulations are absent.
  7. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs −13.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FPI matchup output gives Louisiana Tech a 17.72-point fair margin; versus -13.5, the modeled edge is 4.22 points.
    • Opponent-adjusted ratings favor Tech: FPI gap 19.81, SP+ gap 22.5, and SRS gap 20.3 on neutral fields.
    • only margin check: 2026 gap 13.75 and 2025 gap 24.45; simple 50/50 blend is 19.10 points.
    • Only four current-season FBS games are usable for each team after excluding Northwestern State and SE Louisiana; prior-year fallback is required and caps conviction low.
  8. UL Monroe Warhawks over 19.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA delta +0.1124/play: ULM offense +0.1724 minus Louisiana Tech defensive EPA allowed +0.0600.
    • ULM scored touchdowns on 11 of 16 recent red-zone trips (.6875), clearing the over trigger; Tech allowed 11 of 22 (.500).
    • Two confirmers agree: ULM success .4594 versus Tech opponents .4339, plus ULM PROE +.1335 and pass rate 51.9%.
    • No game-specific availability signal confirmed either quarterback; the sourced preview did not verify starters, imposing the 0.5u cap.
  9. UL Monroe Warhawks spread +13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • own 55.5% cover estimate versus 49.5% implied by ProphetX +102.
    • Louisiana Tech has scored 16.5 and allowed 40.5 points per road game; UL Monroe has scored 26.0 and allowed 41.5 at home.
    • Venue splits also favor a narrower margin: Louisiana Tech's road offense is -0.351 EPA/play with a 36.0% success rate, while UL Monroe's home offense is +0.290 EPA/play with a 49.0% success rate.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana Tech's 3-0 overall record converts its opponent-quality edge into a 14-point-or-more road win.

Questions

Who won Louisiana Tech vs. UL Monroe?

The Louisiana Tech won 24–0 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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