Louisville vs. SyracuseFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJMA Wireless Dome
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 14 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 34 |
| SYR | 10 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 26 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 55.5 total 52¢
Why Saturday Board likes it: Load-bearing total factors are approximately 21, 22 adjusted combined possessions, 150 current combined plays near 24 seconds per play, and combined current points-per-drive of 5.67; explosive rates are Louisville 18.3% and Syracuse 12.5%.
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-5 on this game · −12% return
- Louisville Cardinals −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Over 55.5 total+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Load-bearing total factors are approximately 21, 22 adjusted combined possessions, 150 current combined plays near 24 seconds per play, and combined current points-per-drive of 5.67; explosive rates are Louisville 18.3% and Syracuse 12.5%.
- Most likely loss: Syracuse's lower offensive baseline and Louisville's defense hold the game to 55 points or fewer.
- Louisville −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Louisville Cardinals to win+16%Won
Taken at −625 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Louisville's recent offense posted 0.35 EPA/play and 55.8% success, versus Syracuse at 0.13 and 48.5%.
- 2026 team grades favor Louisville 90.5 to 75.9, including an 82.8, 56.9 passing-grade gap.
- Syracuse.com confirmed Malachi Nelson as the starter; his absence would be a downgrade to Syracuse's already volatile QB/injury profile.
- Louisville is traveling and Syracuse has home-field advantage in the dome.
- Louisville Cardinals spread −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Six-game Louisville FBS sample: +0.33 EPA/play, .5448 success, .1828 explosive; Syracuse's five-game current sample: +.1268, .4851, .1251.
- Matchup EPA read: Louisville offense +.325 against Syracuse defense +.0643 allowed; Syracuse offense +.1268 against Louisville +.0938 allowed.
- PFF 2026 overall grades favor Louisville 90.5, 75.9 and offense 81.4, 68.4; pace is 23.57 versus 24.49 seconds per play.
- Most likely loss: Louisville controls the game but wins by 14 or fewer after Syracuse's home-field or late-score backdoor.
- Game total over 55.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are over 3 versus under 3; this measure is neutral, while thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total qualifies the read.
- Backing over 55.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; the live ProphetX price is 51.69¢ (-107).
- Book-level count ties 3-3, so this is not three-measure confirmation.
Show all 10 picks
- Louisville −16−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional check: backing Louisville -16, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Only two of three measures support the read; book-level count is neutral at 3-3.
- Syracuse Orange spread +14.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Key-number density: exact 14-point margins occurred 469 times versus 174 at 15; ProphetX gains only 3.13 probability points from Syracuse +14 to +14.5.
- Louisville leads efficiency and PFF, but Syracuse has home field, an indoor venue, and Malachi Nelson confirmed as its starter by live local reporting.
- QB gate cleared: Lincoln Kienholz led Louisville's latest passing row and was identified as Louisville's quarterback in current game coverage; Nelson led Syracuse's latest row.
- Most likely loss: Louisville wins by 15 or more, with its 90.5 PFF grade and .325 recent offensive EPA/play creating a runaway.
- Game total over 55+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 samples: Louisville 6 games and Syracuse 5; both clear the current FBS coverage gate.
- The full ladder was checked through 63: 55 is liquid, while adjacent liquid rungs are 54.5 and 55.5; team-total anchors add no separate internal edge.
- Most likely loss: Syracuse's lower .4688 success rate persists and Louisville's defense turns the game into a one-sided, low-possession result.
- Syracuse Orange to win−100%Lost
Taken at 16¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects Louisville by 9.84 points, leaving a wider upset path than the moneyline implies.
- Most likely loss: Louisville's +0.33 offensive EPA/play and 39.5 points per game overwhelm Syracuse early.
Questions
Who won Louisville vs. Syracuse?
Louisville won 34-26 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.