Marist vs. DrakeFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDrake Stadium (IA)
Marist3–3
27–22Final
Drake2–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARI | 7 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| DRAK | 3 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 51.5 total points 45¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-0 on this game · +122% return
- Marist Red Foxes to win+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Heater Two-HourWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Six-game efficiency sample: Marist +0.078 offensive EPA/play and -0.009 defensive EPA allowed; Drake +0.002 and +0.145.
- Current margins favor Marist +6.7 per game versus Drake -10.2; explosive rates are nearly even, limiting a one-stat explanation.
- Only six current-season games per team create substantial schedule-adjustment and regression uncertainty.
Heater Two-Hour- The global and US markets currently both show Marist near 0.375, so cross-venue lag is absent.
- Under 51.5 total points+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Marist Red Foxes +4.5+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model cover probability 55.5% versus roughly 48.0% market fair probability at the consensus -4.5 spread.
- SRS rates Marist -43.0 versus Drake -46.9, a 3.9-point neutral-field edge before home adjustment.
- Last-five EPA/play favors Marist 0.1507 to -0.0147; success rate is 45.8% versus 43.7%.
- Drake is at home and a six-turnover loss last week creates rebound and turnover-regression risk.
- Marist Red Foxes spread +3.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX: Marist +3.5 is 48.31¢ (+107), versus Marist +3 at 46.08¢ (+117), only a 2.23¢ gap.
- ProphetX’s +3.5 quote may move, and this desk has no independent projection of outright cover probability.
- Game total under 51.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Marist's 2026 defense allowed 19.2 points per game across six games, while Drake scored 13 and 21 in its two most recent games.
- Marist's offense averages 25.8 points across six games; a conservative matchup blend projects roughly 47, 50 total points.
- The 2-point line discount versus the broader 53.5 market creates the structural price opportunity; the edge is the matchup projection, not the payout size.
- Most likely loss: Drake's home offense rebounds and Marist contributes enough for 52 or more.
- Marist Red Foxes spread +4.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: ProphetX's Drake -4.5 is -107 while the adjacent -5.5 rung is -265, an unusually discontinuous ladder around the main number.
- Marist's five-game profile is materially stronger: +0.151 offensive EPA/play and -0.058 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Drake's -0.015 and +0.109.
- Recent scoring margin is +8.2 for Marist versus -11.6 for Drake; after discounting schedule and home field, my cover estimate is 58%.
- Most likely loss: Drake's home field and stronger schedule experience turn a close game into a five-point-or-more home win.
Questions
Who won Marist vs. Drake?
The Marist won 27–22 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.