Mercer vs. SamfordFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSeibert Stadium
Mercer5–2
31–21Final
Samford1–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 21 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 31 |
| SAMF | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMercer Bears −14 −108
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Mercer is 5-2 with a 214-116 scoring profile; Samford is 1-5 at 109-148 through the day before kickoff.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-5 on this game · −44% return
- Game total under 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mercer’s season offense is +0.143 EPA/play; Samford’s defense allows +0.092, while Samford’s offense is -0.019 against Mercer’s -0.075 defensive EPA allowed.
- Season scoring inputs produce a simple matchup total near 45.1 points before weather adjustment: Mercer 30.6 scored/16.6 allowed; Samford 18.2/24.7.
- NWS forecast is sunny and cool with a north wind around 20 mph; both teams have seven days’ rest since Oct. 10.
- The warehouse pace field is anomalous for Samford (3.5 seconds/play season average versus Mercer 19.8), so the tempo input is soft.
- Mercer Bears under 49.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Samford averaged 19.8 points across its last five; its last two offensive EPA/play marks were -0.240 and -0.229.
- Mercer’s five-game defense EPA allowed averaged -0.0449, while Samford’s five-game offense success rate was 41.8%.
- Total moved from 51.5 to 48.5, providing independent Market-family confirmation of the under direction.
- Mercer offense averaged +0.0542 EPA/play over the recent window and can score efficiently against Samford’s +0.1042 defensive EPA allowed.
- Mercer Bears −14+93%Won
Taken at −108 on BetMGM
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mercer is 5-2 with a 214-116 scoring profile; Samford is 1-5 at 109-148 through the day before kickoff.
- Recent eight-game EPA profile favors Mercer: +0.1316 offensive EPA/play versus Samford -0.1507; Samford allows +0.1127 defensive EPA/play.
- PFF team grades are 91.3 Mercer versus 71.1 Samford, with a 91.7-to-77.9 defensive-grade edge.
- Mercer used both JP Pickles and Jaylen King in recent passing production; game-specific quarterback availability and usage are not officially confirmed.
- Mercer Bears −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at −102 on BetMGM
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model margin is Mercer -17.5; 58.5% cover estimate at -14.5.
- Mercer averages +0.211 offensive PPA and -0.006 defensive PPA allowed; Samford is -0.039 and +0.130.
- Mercer leads recent success rate 46.6% to 40.7% and explosive rate 14.0% to 8.3%.
- Pickles has a small starting-quarterback sample, and the Mercer QB change adds performance variance.
- game total over 50+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- over 50 wins at 51+ points; exactly 50 returns stake (push); over 50.5 loses at 50.
- ProphetX: over 50 is 51.46¢ (-106) versus over 50.5 at 56.14¢ (-128); the whole-number contract has extra push protection.
- This is not a projection: over 50 still loses when the game finishes at 49 or fewer points.
- Samford Bulldogs moneyline NO−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Show all 7 picks
- Mercer Bears spread −14−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mercer’s six-game average margin is +15.0, versus Samford’s -6.5; the matchup gap supports a number above the market’s 14 points.
- Mercer averages +0.172 offensive EPA/play and allows -0.083 defensive EPA/play; Samford is -0.019 offensively and allows +0.092.
- Most likely loss: Mercer wins by fewer than two touchdowns, with Samford’s home field and backdoor scoring deciding the number.
Questions
Who won Mercer vs. Samford?
The Mercer won 31–21 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.