Merrimack vs. DartmouthFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMemorial Field (Dartmouth)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERR | 8 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| DART | 7 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMerrimack Warriors +9.5 −105
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Blended scoring estimate makes Dartmouth a 4.3-point favorite, creating a 5.2-point cushion to +9.5.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −22% return
- Merrimack Warriors +9.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on BetMGM
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Blended scoring estimate makes Dartmouth a 4.3-point favorite, creating a 5.2-point cushion to +9.5.
- Market support: spread moved from Dartmouth -11.5 to -8.5 at FanDuel, improving the Merrimack side.
- Merrimack's recent offense EPA was poor, but Dartmouth's defense allowed +0.182 EPA/play over its 2026 window.
- Dartmouth is at home and has the superior 2026 team grade, 81.7 to Merrimack's 67.6.
- Game total under 44.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent combined scoring averages about 35 points per game, nine points below the 44.5 total.
- Dartmouth and Merrimack average only 17.3 and 18.2 points respectively across the displayed 2026 regular-season samples.
- Wind forecast is northwest 10, 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, a modest passing and kicking drag.
- Dartmouth's 2026 defense has allowed 23.3 points per game and +0.1821 defensive EPA/play in the recent window.
- Dartmouth Big Green spread −10.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SRS gap is 16.5 points: Dartmouth -25.1 versus Merrimack -41.6.
- Dartmouth leads recent offensive EPA/play 0.1033 to -0.1483 and success rate 45.2% to 39.1%.
- Team-grade gap is 14.1 points overall and 13.3 on offense; home field adds support.
- Dartmouth's recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.1821/play, so Merrimack can stay inside the number if explosive plays arrive.
- Game total under 45.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages total just 33.6 points (Dartmouth 17.3, Merrimack 16.3); the 45.5 market is materially higher.
- Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed in same-day game notes: Grayson Saunier and AJ Hairston Jr.; no quarterback absence is priced into this view.
- Forecast is 41°F with 12 mph northwest wind and 8% precipitation probability at kickoff, a modest scoring drag.
- Merrimack has an extra week of rest while Dartmouth played October 10, which could improve the underdog's offensive execution.
- Merrimack Warriors spread +10+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- season-to-date efficiency points to Dartmouth by roughly 5-7, not the 10-point main number.
- Merrimack's defense has allowed 0.109 EPA/play on average versus Dartmouth's 0.182; that supports a competitive margin.
- Dartmouth is 1-3 with 17.3 points per game; Merrimack is 2-4 and has covered this price if the game stays within one score.
- Dartmouth's 23.25-31.0 points-allowed gap over these teams favors the home side and can create a late margin.
Questions
Who won Merrimack vs. Dartmouth?
The Dartmouth won 27–21 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.