Mississippi State vs. LSUFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTiger Stadium (LA)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | 14 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonZion Ragins under 2.5 receptions −128
Why Touch Share Saturday likes it: Target share was 14.8%, 7.9%, and 10.0% over the last 3 games; mean 10.9%, CV 26.6%.
Touch Share SaturdayDown 18% this season · 61 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-7 on this game · −45% return
- LSU Tigers to win+12%Won
Taken at 89¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Heater Two-HourWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- LSU is coming off a 34-35 loss to Kentucky and has six players listed out on the fresh game report.
Heater Two-Hour- Polymarket US LSU price is 86.5¢, 1.4¢ below their size-weighted average entry; global price is 87.5¢.
- LSU is a short favorite; Mississippi State can win outright despite the momentum signal.
- Mississippi State Bulldogs spread +17.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsLong Way Home, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Long Way Home- Even adding roughly three home points leaves a 15.5-point baseline, two points short of the 17.5 spread.
- Mississippi State's offense averages 0.34 EPA/play and 39.0 points; the market prices a 17.5-point cushion despite that production.
- LSU's defense has allowed -0.16 EPA/play on average versus Mississippi State's +0.12 allowed; that matchup can create a blowout.
ProphetX Pairs- ESPN's live pregame model projects LSU by 10.23 points, 7.27 points short of this spread.
- Mississippi State's 2026 FBS sample averages +0.34 EPA/play and 52.0% success across five games.
- Starting QB Kamario Taylor is doubtful; the official LSU preview expects Parker Puckett if Taylor cannot play, making this a Thin personnel tier.
- Zion Ragins under 2.5 receptions+78%Won
Taken at −128 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Target share was 14.8%, 7.9%, and 10.0% over the last 3 games; mean 10.9%, CV 26.6%.
- Yards per target fell from 15.25 to 2.75 while share stayed role-level; efficiency cratered without a usage expansion.
- 89.4% season route rate and 85.4% latest route rate confirm recurring opportunity rather than a disappearing role.
- Most likely loss: Mississippi State trails, throws 40-plus times, and Ayden Williams' absence concentrates enough targets for Ragins to catch three.
- Mississippi State Bulldogs +17.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model score 35-28 LSU; +10.5 points of cushion versus MSU +17.5.
- Mississippi State covered this number 6/10 L10 and 4/5 L5, including four straight.
- Current-season cover rate is 4/5; Mississippi State averages 39.0 points through five games.
- LSU's 93.6 team grade and -0.14 recent defensive EPA allowed create a legitimate blowout path.
- LSU Tigers first-half spread NO 23.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DraftKings live LSU -30.5; current 14-0 implies approximately a 19.5-point halftime mean after remaining-rate scaling.
- 2,584 regular-season FBS finals have SD_full 15.77; quarter-remainder SD scales to 7.89, not half the SD.
- Smooth normal probability is 69.4% NO at 23.5; college 7/21-point mass correction conservatively reduces the estimate to 59%.
- No independent first-half sharp quote exists; the live full-game spread is only a scaled proxy.
- Mississippi State Bulldogs +18.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair margin: LSU 15.5 points; executable spread LSU -18.5, a 3.0-point edge to Mississippi State.
- FPI, SP+, and SRS neutral rating gaps are 8.8, 9.1, and 6.5 points before home field.
- Mississippi State leads LSU in FBS season success rate (.520 vs .493) and explosive rate (.170 vs .163).
- Kamario Taylor is doubtful; LSU's official preview expects freshman Parker Puckett if Taylor cannot play.
Show all 9 picks
- Mississippi State Bulldogs over 19.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at +109 on BetOnline
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta +0.46/play: Mississippi State offense +0.34 minus LSU defensive EPA allowed -0.12.
- Confirmers point over: Mississippi State success .520 versus LSU-opponent .369; explosive rate .162 versus .093 allowed.
- Kamario Taylor is officially out and lead back Fluff Bothwell is out; the replacement quarterback is not confirmed.
- Sam Leavitt over 33.5 rushing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Leavitt cleared 33.5 yards in 3 of 5 2026 appearances: 39, 63, and 113 yards.
- His recent rushing workload includes 15 carries for 39 yards and 17 carries for 63 yards.
- LSU's 2026 offense averages +0.23 EPA per play, supporting sustained possession and rushing opportunities.
- The recent sample is only five games, not a full 10-game window; the 60% hit rate is exactly the threshold.
- First-half total over 30.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.53 is fraction 0.53, i.e. 53¢; spread is 1¢ with 8,306 contracts traded.
- Season-to-date pace: LSU 26.02 and Mississippi State 23.89 seconds/play; 1,800×0.90/24.96 gives 64.9 first-half plays.
- Historical drive rates imply 6.39 plays/drive, or 10.2 combined first-half drives; 14 points are already on the board.
- Mississippi State has 0 points through three live drives; the Puckett haircut is an explicit but uncertain 25% modeling assumption.
Questions
Who won Mississippi State vs. LSU?
LSU won 31-0 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.