Missouri vs. Ole MissFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalVaught-Hemingway Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MISS | 7 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOle Miss Rebels spread −5.5 46¢
Why Saturday Board likes it: Pinnacle main line is Ole Miss -4.5; exact -5.5 is +108 / Missouri -5.5 -126, devigged Ole Miss cover probability 46.3%.
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 13-15 on this game · −12% return
- Ole Miss Rebels to win+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsHeater Two-Hour, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Heater Two-Hour- One entry was roughly 16 hours old, so some momentum may already be reflected.
ProphetX Pairs- Ole Miss averages +0.277 offensive EPA/play and 55.5% success across five FBS games, versus Missouri's +0.102 and 44.4%.
- Missouri's FBS defensive EPA allowed is -0.122 versus Ole Miss's +0.142, a meaningful matchup disadvantage for the backed side.
- Missouri Tigers to win−100%Lost
Taken at +158 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, Picks With Pink Grading SystemWhy 2 models like it
D1 Winner- Efficiency family favors Missouri: FPI defensive efficiency 85.18 versus Ole Miss 64.90; SP+ rating 18.0 versus 15.9.
- Recent per-play defense: Missouri allowed -0.122 EPA/play across its last five; Ole Miss allowed +0.142.
- Ole Miss has the stronger recent offense: +0.277 EPA/play and 55.5% success rate versus Missouri's +0.102 and 44.4%.
Picks With Pink Grading System- Missouri is 5-1 with a +13.8 recent scoring margin; Ole Miss is 4-1 at +10.8.
- Market moved toward Missouri from +170 to +158, confirming support rather than opposing the position.
- Missouri's offense produced only 147 passing yards in its latest game; efficiency may regress against Ole Miss.
- Ole Miss Rebels spread −6+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- ProphetX's own Ole Miss moneyline is -170 (62.96¢); the 44.05¢ -6 cover rung is unusually cheap relative to the same-game win contract.
- Ole Miss averages +0.277 EPA/play, .5547 success and 3.21 points/drive over 5 games versus Missouri's +0.1399, .4615 and 2.73 over 6.
- Most likely loss: Ole Miss wins by 5 or fewer, or loses outright, because Missouri's defense allows only -0.1345 EPA/play.
Long Way Home- Ole Miss averages 38.0 points in three 2026 home games; Missouri averages 31.0 in two road games.
- Ole Miss owns a major offensive EPA edge: +0.279/play overall versus Missouri's +0.160; home field adds to the matchup.
- Most likely loss: Missouri's stronger defense, which has allowed -0.161 EPA/play overall, keeps the game within six.
- Cayden Lee over 7.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on BetOnline
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Touch share rose 32.5% → 30.0% → 46.4% of Missouri pass attempts; 3-game mean 36.3%, CV 19.9%.
- Yards per target fell 12.0 → 12.2 → 7.2 while share rose; usage and production diverged.
- PFF route rates were 97.5%, 96.4%, and 95.7%; the role remains nearly full-time.
- Most likely loss: Ole Miss leads early, Missouri continues its recent run-heavy split, and Lee finishes with seven receptions.
- Ole Miss Rebels spread −5.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle main line is Ole Miss -4.5; exact -5.5 is +108 / Missouri -5.5 -126, devigged Ole Miss cover probability 46.3%.
- Most likely loss: Missouri's -0.1345 defensive EPA allowed keeps Ole Miss from clearing 5.5 points.
- Over 58.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Adjusted combined possessions project 21.0; Ole Miss averages 0.277 EPA/play and 3.213 points/drive, Missouri 0.140 and 2.733.
- Most likely loss: Missouri's -0.1345 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Ole Miss enough for the game to finish below 59.
Show all 25 picks
- Over 57 total−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current points per drive are 2.73 for Missouri and 3.21 for Ole Miss, while explosive-play rates are 13.7% and 12.6%; both support a high scoring tail.
- Most likely loss: one offense stalls in the red zone or the game produces materially fewer possessions than the 142.6 combined-play baseline.
- Missouri Tigers spread +5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days - Ole Miss Rebels first-half winner+30%Won
Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live state is favorable: Ole Miss leads Missouri 7-3 after the first quarter; current PBP confirms Austin Simmons and Trinidad Chambliss have taken the snaps for Missouri and Ole Miss.
- This is the high-base-rate favourite desk's different risk profile, with the same discipline: high hit rate is not profitability, so the 82% estimate must clear the 77c price.
- The first-half reference is derived because no Pinnacle first-half market was posted; DraftKings' -500 is an independent cross-check, not a sharp quote.
- Ole Miss Rebels first-half spread NO 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game Ole Miss -4.5 scales to a +2.25 first-half mean, close to my +1.8 projection.
- Missouri's six-game profile is 2.73 points/drive and Ole Miss's five-game profile is 3.21; current-season EPA/success inputs keep the projected first-half gap near the market's scaled mean.
- The 3-point margin is the largest observed college mass (237/2,676); 3.5 sits just beyond that computed mass point, supporting the NO shape.
- First-half signed margins are approximated with a normal mean-plus-SD distribution; the full-game margin table does not preserve every scoring-state dependency.
- Ole Miss Rebels over 32.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta is +0.412/play: Ole Miss offense +0.2773 minus Missouri defensive EPA allowed -0.1345, across 5 and 6 current-season games.
- Ole Miss scored touchdowns on 18 of 21 recent red-zone trips (.857); Missouri allowed touchdowns on 5 of 12 (.417). The offense clears the over trigger with a qualifying sample.
- Pace confirms the environment: Ole Miss averages 20.10 seconds/play and Missouri 26.58, a combined clock read that supports adequate possessions.
- Missouri's recent defensive red-zone rate allowed is only 5/12 (.417), so Ole Miss must sustain its exceptional offensive finishing rather than rely on short fields.
- Game total under 58.5+93%Won
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- My fair total is 55.5, three points below the live 58.5 market; DraftKings offers -108 on the under.
- Missouri averages 26.58 seconds per play and 46.2% offensive success, a slower, less efficient profile than Ole Miss's 20.1 seconds and 55.5%.
- NNE wind at 15 mph with 21-mph gusts and 0% precipitation is a modest passing-efficiency negative, especially at this high total.
- Ole Miss averages 38.8 points with +0.277 offensive EPA/play, and Missouri's defense faces the game's stronger offense.
- Ole Miss Rebels −5.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ole Miss leads this season's offense at +0.277 EPA/play and 55.5% success rate versus Missouri's +0.140 and 46.2%.
- Ole Miss operates faster at 20.1 seconds per play versus Missouri's 26.58, creating a home-field scoring and possession advantage.
- Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: Trinidad Chambliss for Ole Miss and Austin Simmons for Missouri, per 6:01 a.m. CT game-day coverage.
- Missouri's defense is materially better: -0.135 defensive EPA/play and 17.7 points allowed per game versus Ole Miss's +0.142 and 28.0.
- Game total over 57−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current six-game Missouri and five-game Ole Miss samples: offenses average +0.1399 and +0.2680 EPA/play, with success rates .4615 and .5481.
- Explosive rates are .1375 for Missouri and .1302 for Ole Miss; Missouri's offense faces Ole Miss allowing +.1517 defensive EPA/play.
- Pace supports possessions: Missouri is 26.58 seconds/play; Ole Miss's four normal readings are 23.18, 24.92 seconds, with positive PROE in all five games.
- Most likely loss: Missouri's defense allows -0.1345 EPA/play and contains Ole Miss, leaving the game at 56 or fewer.
- Ole Miss Rebels 1st-half winner+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Last three: Ole Miss averaged 0.262 offensive EPA/play, 55.6% success, and +18.3% PROE.
- Missouri's last-three averages were 0.161 EPA/play, 46.7% success, and +6.9% PROE; the opening-script rate gap favors Ole Miss.
- Austin Simmons and Trinidad Chambliss both cleared the live starting-QB check with no unresolved status.
- Missouri's defense allowed -0.077 EPA/play over its last three, which can blunt Ole Miss's advantage.
- Missouri Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels over 60−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels tie 3-3, so two of three measures support the over; raw thin-side stake is substantial. SHARP REFERENCE: none used; this is VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only.
- Directional coherence check: backing over 60, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The book-level count does not corroborate the depth asymmetry, so this is weaker than a three-measure signal.
- Ole Miss Rebels spread −4+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB margin histogram: absolute 1, 4 margins were 2,054/11,194; symmetric directional subtraction implies about 54.1% for -4.
- Efficiency form favors Ole Miss: +0.268 EPA/play, .548 success rate, 19.87 seconds/play versus Missouri +.1399, .4615, 26.58.
- DraftKings is -3.5 -120 and Pinnacle -4.5 -101, bracketing this executable -4 rung.
- Most likely loss: Ole Miss wins by 1, 3; absolute 1, 3 margins total 1,684/11,194 historically.
- Over 59.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Missouri’s 0.140 offensive EPA/play can exploit Ole Miss’ +0.142 defensive EPA allowed/play; recent team-total blend centers near 60.
- Most likely loss: the game finishes 59 or fewer after one or more stalled red-zone possessions.
- Game total over 59.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current 2026 scoring averages are Missouri 35.8 and Ole Miss 38.8 points across six and five games: 74.6 combined.
- Most likely loss: Missouri's -0.1345 defensive EPA/play allowed suppresses Ole Miss, while Missouri fails to finish drives against Ole Miss.
- Missouri Tigers spread +5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Missouri’s FBS-only defense allows -0.122 EPA/play versus Ole Miss at +0.142, a +0.264 gap.
- ProphetX’s captured main board centers near Ole Miss -4; this rung supplies an extra point.
- Ole Miss leads the FBS-only offensive comparison, +0.277 versus Missouri’s +0.102 EPA/play.
- Missouri Tigers spread +4−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair expected margin: Ole Miss +2.2; versus Missouri +4, the estimated spread edge is 1.8 points.
- Five FBS-game baseline: Missouri averaged +13.8 margin, versus Ole Miss +10.8; the latest-three margin window also favors Missouri, +14.0 to +6.3.
- Missouri's defense allowed -0.122 EPA/play and 2.41 points/drive; Ole Miss allowed +0.142 EPA/play and 3.21 points/drive.
- Ole Miss owns the clearest secondary edge: 0.277 offensive EPA/play and 55.5% success rate versus Missouri's 0.102 and 44.4%.
- Cayden Lee under 95.5 receiving yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- He stayed under 95.5 receiving yards in 7 of his last 10 appearances.
- FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%; my estimate is 58.0%, clearing the four-point value gate.
- The prop board confirms Lee is participating in this Missouri-Ole Miss game.
- His current Missouri sample is only 3 of 6 unders, including two 100-yard games.
- First-half total under 30.5 points+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Six-game Missouri pace is 26.58 seconds/play; four valid Ole Miss games average 24.21; 1,800/25.39 × 0.90 gives 63.8 half-plays.
- No independent first-half sharp rung; full-game scaling is a derived reference, so this is capped at LEAN.
- Game total under 58+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; own estimate 56% under versus ProphetX 52.15c (-109), a 3.85-point gap.
- Missouri's defense allowed 17.7 points/game and -0.1345 EPA/play through six games.
- Game-day report lists Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy plus two offensive linemen out; Ole Miss has three OL, two WR and a RB out.
- Ole Miss averages 38.8 points and 0.277 offensive EPA/play; its explosive offense can clear 58.
- Game total over 58.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- QB gate cleared: latest passing boxes were led by Austin Simmons with 28 attempts and Trinidad Chambliss with 30; official previews identify both starters.
- Most likely loss: Missouri's strong -0.1345 defensive EPA/play allowed suppresses Ole Miss and the game finishes at 58 or fewer.
Questions
Who won Missouri vs. Ole Miss?
The Ole Miss won 31–3 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.