Monmouth vs. New HampshireFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWildcat Stadium (NH)

Monmouth4–2

42–21Final

New Hampshire2–5

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
MONM	21	7	7	7	42
NEW	0	0	7	14	21

Top model pick, graded

Won

Monmouth Hawks −7.0 −113

Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Season EPA matchup: Monmouth offense +0.102/play versus New Hampshire offense -0.087; the cross-side matchup favors Monmouth.

Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 7-1 on this game · +50% return

Monmouth Hawks −7.02 models agree
+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, D1 Winner
Why 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger
- Season EPA matchup: Monmouth offense +0.102/play versus New Hampshire offense -0.087; the cross-side matchup favors Monmouth.
- Monmouth is coming off a bye, while New Hampshire played last Saturday; the extra preparation/rest edge is meaningful in an FCS road game.
- Biggest risk: Monmouth's defense has allowed +0.265 EPA/play versus +0.121 for New Hampshire, leaving Bentley a path to a close home game.
D1 Winner
- Season offense EPA/play is +0.102 for Monmouth versus -0.087 for New Hampshire; success rate is 48.6% versus 39.2%.
- Recent five-game offense EPA/play remains positive for Monmouth (+0.157) and negative for New Hampshire (-0.048).
- Monmouth's season defensive EPA allowed (+0.265/play) is materially worse than New Hampshire's (+0.121), creating backdoor-cover risk.
Monmouth Hawks to winFavorite2 models agree
+36%Won
Taken at −275 on BetMGM
2 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Brewing CFB Moneylines
- Adjusted 2026 PPA: Monmouth +0.161 versus New Hampshire -0.066; success rate .480 versus .337.
- SRS favors Monmouth by 15.7 points (-25.8 versus -41.5); team grades also favor Monmouth 74.9 to 71.4.
- DraftKings moved Monmouth from -314 opener to -288; exchanges also moved the away probability from about 75% to 70.5%.
Long Way Home
- my live estimate is 96.5%, above ProphetX's 94.12¢ break-even price.
- Monmouth leads 21-0 with 1:23 left in the first quarter; the live game state was confirmed at 10:35 AM PDT.
- Most likely loss: New Hampshire generates explosive scores after halftime and turns an early 21-point deficit into a comeback.
Monmouth Hawks −7
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PWP Grade 72/100: qualifying B-grade spread with positive modeled value.
- SRS rates Monmouth -25.8 versus New Hampshire -41.5, a 15.7-point neutral gap; even a conservative 3-point home adjustment projects Monmouth by 12.7.
- My cover estimate is 59%, 6.6 percentage points above BetMGM -110 break-even.
- Monmouth's recent defense allowed 33.2 points per game and posted +0.2677 defensive EPA allowed per play.
Over 58.5 total points
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Over has 3 book levels versus Under's 2, corroborating the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it configuration.
- Directional check: backing Over 58.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- ProphetX is the only reference; no independent sharp confirmation supports the order-flow interpretation.
Monmouth Hawks spread −7
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Monmouth averages +0.102 offensive EPA/play versus New Hampshire's -0.087, a 0.189-play efficiency gap.
- Monmouth's last three FCS games produced +0.184, +0.219, and +0.311 offensive EPA/play; New Hampshire's last four include three negative offensive-EPA games.
- My blended cover estimate is 54%, above the 50.98¢ contract price; the mechanism is matchup projection, not payout size.
- Most likely loss: New Hampshire exploits Monmouth's defense, which allows 33.2 points and +0.265 defensive EPA/play on the season.
Game total under 58.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: ProphetX's own under 57.5 is -325 / 76.47¢, while the logically broader under 58.5 is only -115 / 53.49¢.
- The sharp main total is 56 with under -106 at Pinnacle; ProphetX's 58.5 gives two-and-a-half points of additional protection.
- ProphetX price is -115 / 53.49¢; my win estimate is 77%, with the venue's narrower rung making the discrepancy structural rather than payout-driven.
- Most likely loss: Monmouth and New Hampshire combine for 59 or more points through explosive plays, short fields, or late scoring.

Questions

Who won Monmouth vs. New Hampshire?

The Monmouth won 42–21 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.