Montana State vs. Eastern WashingtonFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRoos Field
Montana State5–1
56–20Final
Eastern Washington2–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | 0 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 56 |
| EAST | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMontana State Bobcats spread −20.5 47¢
Why Long Way Home likes it: Montana State's five prior 2026 game margins average +17.0; Eastern Washington's comparable margins average -5.6.
Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3702 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-7 on this game · −73% return
- Game total under 63.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Combined season scoring averages imply roughly 59.5 points: Montana State 37.0, Eastern Washington 28.0; defensive allowances are 18.3 and 35.6.
- Efficiency matchup is asymmetric: Montana State leads in offensive EPA/play (.255 vs .088) and success rate (.556 vs .460), but its defense limits EPA while EWU allows .209 EPA/play.
- Montana State's Justin Lamson is reported in line to return, but final starting confirmation was not published; his return could lift the Bobcat offense.
CFB HunterV2- Current-season EPA profile points to a lower-scoring matchup: Montana State offense +0.255/play and defense +0.009 allowed versus Eastern Washington +0.088 and +0.209 allowed.
- Montana State allows 18.3 points per game; Eastern Washington allows 35.6, producing a modeled total near 60, 61 before variance.
- Eastern Washington still averages 28 points per game and Bell just threw for 334 yards and four touchdowns; explosive passing can break the under.
- Game total under 65.5−100%Lost
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, House RulesWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade: 75/100 (Grade B).
- Projected total 59.5 from each team's current-season scoring/allowing averages, 6.0 points below 65.5.
- Montana State averages 37.0 points across six games and can create a high-scoring game script alone.
House Rules- ProphetX under 65.5 is 56.90¢ versus under 65 at 56.14¢, only a 0.76-point price gap.
- exactly 65 total points occurred 284 of 11,223 completed CFB games, 2.531%.
- No matchup projection is used; under 65.5 loses at 66 or more total points.
- Eastern Washington Eagles +20.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on williamhill_us
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade: 71/100 (Grade B).
- SRS ratings imply a 15.5-point neutral-field gap, leaving a five-point cushion against the current 20.5-point spread.
- Montana State has allowed 30-plus points in two of its last three games, creating backdoor-cover potential.
- Eastern Washington is 2-5 with a -7.6 recent scoring margin, while Montana State is 5-1 with a +18.7 margin.
- Eastern Washington +21.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX Eastern Washington +21.5 is 56.90¢ versus +21 at 56.52¢, only a 0.38-point price gap.
- Montana State winning by exactly 21 occurred 411 of 11,223 completed CFB games, 3.662%.
- No matchup projection is used; the contract can still lose if Montana State wins by 22 or more.
- Game total under 64.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Montana State's defense allows 0.009 EPA/play this season, while Eastern Washington's offense produces only 0.088 EPA/play.
- Montana State's offense is strong, but Eastern Washington's 0.209 defensive EPA/play allowed is offset by the Bobcats' matchup-driven scoring suppression.
- Recent combined scoring projects roughly 60, 62; the market's 64.5 total appears to overweight Eastern Washington's recent offensive spikes.
- Most likely loss: Montana State exploits Eastern Washington's weak defense for 40-plus points and Eastern Washington contributes enough late scoring to clear 64.5.
- Montana State Bobcats spread −20.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Montana State's five prior 2026 game margins average +17.0; Eastern Washington's comparable margins average -5.6.
- Montana State's prior-five offensive EPA/play averages about +0.246 versus Eastern Washington's +0.101; defensive EPA allowed averages about +0.049 versus +0.209.
- The process and margin gap support a projected margin around 22 points, above the 20.5-point line; the single-leg ProphetX price is the endorsed contract.
- Most likely loss: Eastern Washington's pass-heavy offense creates enough explosive plays for a backdoor cover inside 20.5.
Questions
Who won Montana State vs. Eastern Washington?
The Montana State won 56–20 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.