Morehead State vs. DavidsonFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRichardson Stadium (Davidson
Morehead State1–5
31–34Final
Davidson2–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORE | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| DAVI | 14 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 34 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMorehead State Eagles over 57.5 total points 54¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: NatoAlfista and xJared both hold the exact Over 57.5 contract.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +40% return
- Morehead State Eagles over 57.5 total points+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NatoAlfista and xJared both hold the exact Over 57.5 contract.
- Morehead State averaged 23.0 points and Davidson 24.4 across their last five games; that combined pace is below 57.5.
- Over 56.5 total points+88%Won
Taken at −114 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): clears the 70 fire bar with a qualifying edge.
- Projected total 66.7, 10.2 points above the 56.5 line (+18.1%).
- Combined recent sample cleared 56.5 in 8 of 13 team-games (61.5%); Morehead State was 5/6 over.
- Davidson cleared 56.5 in only 3 of its last 7 games, so the pooled hit rate masks a meaningful split.
- Game total over 57.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent total baseline is elevated: Davidson's last five games averaged 62.4 points and Morehead State's last five averaged 70.8.
- Morehead State allows 46.8 points per game and Davidson allows 38.4; both defenses create multiple scoring paths.
- The 57.5 contract is priced materially better than the same-line sharp reference, while the projection supports a game above the threshold.
- Most likely loss: one or both offenses repeat their low-output profile and the game finishes at 57 or fewer.
- Davidson Wildcats spread +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Davidson's current-season scoring margin is -16.0 over its last seven versus Morehead State's -21.0 over six.
- Davidson's season-average defense is materially better: +0.163 defensive EPA/play versus Morehead State's +0.303, while the offenses are close (-0.043 versus +0.015).
- Pinnacle prices Davidson +1.5 at -124; ProphetX offers the same line at -111 / 52.61¢.
- Most likely loss: Morehead State's pass-heavy offense creates enough explosive plays to win by two or more.
Questions
Who won Morehead State vs. Davidson?
The Davidson won 34–31 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.