Morgan State vs. Tennessee StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalNissan Stadium
Morgan State5-1
16–25Final
Tennessee State1-5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORG | 0 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| TENN | 9 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 25 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-4 on this game · −100% return
- Morgan State Bears spread −5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model cover probability 54.5%; Morgan leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.13 to -0.04.
- Morgan leads success rate 46.6% to 41.3% and explosive rate 14.4% to 9.0%.
- Morgan's defensive EPA allowed is better: 0.15 versus Tennessee State's 0.18; average margins are +3.5 versus -17.8.
- Most likely loss: Tennessee State's home field and Morgan's schedule-adjusted efficiency gap produce a win by five or fewer.
- Morgan State Bears −5.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Morgan posted +0.13 offensive EPA/play versus Tennessee State's -0.04.
- Morgan leads in success rate (.466 to .413) and explosive rate (.144 to .090).
- Tennessee State allows +0.18 defensive EPA/play; matchup favors Morgan's efficient, faster offense.
- Biggest risk: Tennessee State's current game notes do not explicitly confirm Daylin Lee's Saturday start.
- Morgan State Bears to win−100%Lost
Taken at −220 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency: Morgan State averages +0.13 offensive EPA/play versus Tennessee State -0.04.
- Morgan leads success rate .4662-.4133 and explosive-play rate .1435-.0902.
- Cameron Edge is officially named Morgan State's starter; his PFF pass grade is 85.4 versus Tennessee State's primary QB at 61.9.
- Tennessee State's official preview does not explicitly name its Week 7 starter; Daylin Lee's availability is not formally confirmed.
- Morgan State Bears spread −6−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Morgan State's six-game profile is +0.13 EPA/play and 46.6% success versus Tennessee State's -0.04 and 41.3%.
- Morgan averages 31.0 points and allows 27.5; Tennessee State averages 18.0 and allows 35.8, supporting a conservative Morgan margin projection around 9, 10 points.
- Pinnacle independently posts the same Morgan State -6 line at +107, while ProphetX offers the better price.
- Most likely loss: Tennessee State's home advantage and Morgan's 27.5 points allowed per game keep this within six.
Questions
Who won Morgan State vs. Tennessee State?
Tennessee State won 25-16 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.