Get app

Navy vs. UTSAFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAlamodome
Navy2–3
34–38Final
UTSA5–1
Score by period
Team1234T
NAVY71301434
UTSA02131438

Top model pick, graded

Won

Navy Midshipmen spread +5.5 51¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Model margin mean is UTSA +4.0 with 17-point SD; Navy's .493 success rate and 2.582 PPD slightly exceed UTSA's .488 and 2.533.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 11-8 on this game · +10% return

  1. Navy Midshipmen spread +5.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Model margin mean is UTSA +4.0 with 17-point SD; Navy's .493 success rate and 2.582 PPD slightly exceed UTSA's .488 and 2.533.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA wins by six or more, with home field and its .133 offensive EPA/play over Navy's .101.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Partial coverage: both are FBS American Conference teams; Navy has five and UTSA six current-season advanced rows; same-day expected QBs Gutierrez and McCown are cross-checked to recent passing leaders.
    • Efficiency gap is modest at roughly 0.024 EPA/play toward UTSA after cross-matching offense and defense; Navy's 2.58 PPD versus UTSA's 2.53 and +5.5 key-number protection support a close margin.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA's home advantage and more efficient passing produce a margin of six or more.
  2. UTSA Roadrunners to winFavorite2 models agree
    +41%Won

    Taken at −245 on DraftKings

    2 modelsD1 Winner, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • UTSA leads Navy in current FPI total efficiency, 55.2 to 39.2, and SP+/SRS both rate the Roadrunners higher.
    • UTSA’s six-game offense averages 0.133 EPA/play versus Navy’s 0.101; UTSA also allows less defensive EPA, 0.084 versus 0.100.
    • Navy’s explosive-play rate is higher, 0.125 versus UTSA’s 0.113, and its option style can compress possessions and margins.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • UTSA is 5-1 this season and 4-1 in its last five; Navy is 2-3 this season.
    • UTSA last-10 offense: +0.201 EPA/play and 50.5% success rate, versus Navy +0.092 and 49.1%.
    • Pinnacle moved UTSA from -252 to -238, a market move against this position.
  3. UTSA Roadrunners spread −72 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied, 3 to 3; the thin-at-quote and deep-behind-it measures agree, with both raw stakes comfortably above a few hundred dollars.
    • Directional check: backing UTSA, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book levels do not corroborate the read: 3 versus 3, so only two of three measures agree.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 EPA/play: UTSA offense +0.090 versus Navy +0.029; success rates are nearly identical (.476/.475).
    • Navy’s FBS defense allows +0.081 EPA/play versus UTSA’s +0.096, while Navy leads explosive rate .122 to .106.
    • UTSA’s 5-1 form, home field, and 20.44-second FBS pace can create separation against Navy’s slower 29.82-second profile.
  4. Game total under 532 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 scoring averages imply 51.85 combined points: Navy 23.25 and UTSA 28.60; SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle 54.5, context only.
    • Navy’s 29.82-second FBS pace and -10.1% PROE indicate a slower, run-heavy scoring profile against UTSA’s 20.44-second pace.
    • UTSA averages 28.60 FBS points and allows 27.80; its fast pace can create enough possessions to clear 53.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Six-game window: Navy averages 0.0954 EPA/play and .4975 success; UTSA averages 0.1331 EPA/play and .4883 success, a modest combined efficiency profile.
    • Possession shape favors the under: Navy runs 29.69 seconds/play and current Navy PROE is strongly negative; UTSA's six-game pace is 21.62 seconds/play.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA's offense repeats its 31-point South Florida or 59-point Colorado State output and pushes the game above 53.
  5. Over 54.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Load-bearing factor is roughly 21-22 adjusted possessions, current points-per-drive of 2.58 Navy plus 2.53 UTSA, and explosive rates of 12.5% and 11.3%; convergence favors the Over.
    • Most likely loss: Navy's option offense reproduces its 9-point Air Force or 20-point UAB scoring profile and the game stays below 55.
  6. UTSA Roadrunners over 31.5 team points
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA delta +0.0334/play: UTSA offense +0.1331 minus Navy defensive EPA allowed +0.0997.
    • UTSA's red-zone TD rate is 10/19 (.526); Navy allowed 8/12 (.667), clearing the over trigger on the defensive side.
    • Confirmers agree: UTSA success .4883 versus Navy opponents .4735, explosive rate .1132 versus .0769, and PROE +.0953 with a 48.4% pass rate.
    • UTSA's own red-zone rate is only .526, so the over depends on Navy's defensive finishing weakness persisting.
Show all 15 picks
  1. UTSA Roadrunners −5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN pregame model gives UTSA 74.1% to win with an 8.95-point projected margin; the line is only -5.5.
    • UTSA's 2026 FPI rating is -1.28 versus Navy's -6.12, with total-efficiency ratings of 55.2 versus 39.2.
    • UTSA is 5-1 entering this home game; Navy is 2-3, and both expected starting quarterbacks were identified without reported availability concerns.
    • Navy's recent offense grades better in EPA/play (0.1013 versus UTSA's 0.0899) and success rate (49.3% versus 47.6%).
  2. Game total over 52.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UTSA averages 31.3 points and +0.1331 offensive EPA/play; Navy averages 27.0 points and +0.1013 EPA/play.
    • UTSA's 21.62-second pace adds possession potential; Navy's option offense still posts a 49.3% success rate and 0.125 explosive-play rate.
    • ProphetX offers 52.5 while sportsbook references center 54.5; the empirical histogram shows dense exact totals at 54 (210) and 55 (426).
    • Most likely loss: the game finishes at 52 or fewer after Navy's 29.22-second pace suppresses possessions.
  3. UTSA Roadrunners spread −6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp sportsbook reference centers UTSA -6.5, so ProphetX supplies the preferable six rather than a worse alternate.
    • UTSA’s six-game offense is +0.133 EPA/play at 21.62 seconds per play; Navy is +0.101 EPA/play at 29.22 seconds per play.
    • QB gate: latest box data leads with Owen McCown and Jackson Gutierrez; current official UTSA and Navy previews provide live quarterback checks with no reported QB battle or absence.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA wins by 1, 5, or Navy wins outright; margin six pushes rather than wins.
  4. Game total over 54.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both defenses allow positive EPA/play: Navy +0.0997 and UTSA +0.0837 in the current sample.
    • The venue ladder is coherent: over 53 is -117, over 54 is -105, and same-event team-total anchors sum to 54.
    • Most likely loss: Navy’s 29.22-second pace creates too few possessions and its offense stalls below 20 points.
  5. UTSA Roadrunners first-half spread YES 10.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UTSA’s full-game -6.5 scales to a +3.25 first-half mean; 2026 team rates do not contradict the anchor.
    • 3,483 regular-season FBS finals produce SD_full 22.10; square-root scaling gives σ_1H 15.62, not 11.05.
    • PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE; college margin mass peaks at 3, 7, 10, and 17, putting 10.5 just beyond 10.
    • No independent first-half sharp quote exists; this is a derived same-rung reference and therefore capped at LEAN.
  6. Navy Midshipmen spread +6.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season EPA is close: UTSA offense +0.133/play versus Navy +0.101; defensive allowance favors UTSA only modestly, +0.084 versus +0.100.
    • Navy's 29.2-second pace versus UTSA's 21.6 seconds limits possessions and reduces the favorite's margin opportunities.
    • Jackson Gutierrez and Owen McCown are the reported starters; no quarterback downgrade is embedded in this lean.
    • UTSA has the rest edge: nine days since Oct. 8 versus Navy's seven since Oct. 10, plus home field.
  7. Game first-half total over 27.5 points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season window: Navy 67.6 plays at 29.22 seconds/play; UTSA 70.33 at 21.615; blended pace is 25.42 seconds/play.
    • First-half TD/FG ledger gives 2.61 points/drive versus 2.56 overall; the specific uplift is 1.3%, not a flat prior.
    • The derived reference is only 28.0, just 0.5 points above 27.5; this is LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
  8. Navy Midshipmen spread +6
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Navy averages 29.22 seconds per play, while UTSA averages 21.62; the slower, option-heavy profile compresses possessions and margin variance.
    • Navy's 2026 average is 27.0 points scored and 23.4 allowed across five games; UTSA's 31.3/25.8 profile does not justify treating six points as a routine blowout cushion.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA's home passing offense creates explosive scores before Navy can control the tempo, producing a two-score margin.
  9. Navy Midshipmen to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Navy's latest offense posted +0.2005 EPA/play and 58.1% success against a UTSA defense at +0.2228 EPA/play allowed.
    • Navy's option attack passed on only 8.6% of plays and averaged 28.53 seconds per play, limiting possessions and separation variance.
    • UTSA's 4-1 recent form is priced into the favorite; the matchup-specific Navy efficiency and pace support a 37% upset estimate versus 33.78¢ graded price.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA's latest +0.3153 offensive EPA/play overwhelms Navy's defense, which allowed +0.1523 EPA/play in that game.

Questions

Who won Navy vs. UTSA?

The UTSA won 38–34 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.