New Haven vs. Robert MorrisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJoe Walton Stadium
New Haven1–5
26–15Final
Robert Morris3–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW | 3 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 26 |
| ROBE | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-4 on this game · −100% return
- Robert Morris Colonials to win−100%Lost
Taken at 77¢ on Polymarket
3 modelsCFB Heater, D1 Winner +1Why 3 models like it
CFB Heater- Robert Morris grades 86.7 overall versus New Haven 64.6, with recent margins of +0.7 versus -16.5.
- An FCS conference underdog can win outright; the upset outcome remains material at this price.
D1 Winner- Robert Morris grades: 86.7 overall, 73.0 offense, 90.2 defense; New Haven grades 64.6, 55.1, 76.2.
- Robert Morris recent offense averages 0.003 EPA/play, 40.5% success, 1.82 points/drive; New Haven: -0.088, 38.5%, 1.07.
- The estimated edge is modest and sits only 0.86 points above the 4-point gate.
CFB HunterV2- Model win probability 83% versus 75.7% devigged market probability: 7.3-point edge.
- Robert Morris recent offense: +0.094 EPA/play and 43.1% success rate; New Haven: -0.153 EPA/play and 38.0%.
- Robert Morris has allowed 25.2 points per game and its recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.176, creating upset-path volatility.
- Robert Morris Colonials spread −10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Robert Morris has +0.0946 offensive EPA/play over six 2026 games versus New Haven's -0.0881; RMU's 86.7 PFF team grade also exceeds New Haven's 64.6.
- DK and FanDuel reference spreads center the game around RMU -9.5 to -10.5, corroborating the projection while ProphetX offers the better +112 price.
- Carson Haggard and Niko Boyce clear the QB gate: each led his team's latest pass-attempt row, and RMU's official preview was checked 10/16.
- New Haven's defense has allowed +0.0418 EPA/play over its six-game window, creating a path for RMU explosives but also a volatile backdoor margin.
Questions
Who won New Haven vs. Robert Morris?
The New Haven won 26–15 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.