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Northern Illinois vs. WyomingFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWar Memorial Stadium
Northern Illinois0-5
23–41Final
Wyoming3-3
Score by period
Team1234T
NIU0611623
WYO101071441

Top model pick, graded

Won

Wyoming −7.5 47¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Wyoming's 2026 team profile is materially stronger: 3-3 versus NIU 0-5, with a 90.2 defensive grade versus 63.6.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-15 on this game · −40% return

  1. Game total under 42.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    4 modelsTempo Gap, Picks With Pink Grading System +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Tempo Gap
    • Full coverage: NIU has five games and Wyoming six; average 63.6 and 63.0 plays, with only 1.14 and 1.50 points per drive.
    • NIU offense: -0.08 EPA/play and .422 success rate; Wyoming offense: +0.00 EPA/play and .444 success rate.
    • NIU allows 0.20 EPA/play and 34.6 points per game; Wyoming could exploit short fields or defensive breakdowns.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): qualifying edge, but not high conviction.
    • 8 of the last 10 combined team games finished under comparable totals; Wyoming is 5-for-5 under in its last five.
    • The total moved up from 41.5 to 42.5, which opposes the under and may reflect sharper offensive information.
    CFB HunterV2
    • Current-season scoring averages are only 12.4 NIU points and 14.5 Wyoming points per game.
    • NIU offense is -0.08 EPA/play with a 42.2% success rate; Wyoming offense is just +0.00 EPA/play.
    • Wyoming operates at a faster 22.1 seconds per play and could exceed its weak offensive baseline at home.
    Long Way Home
    • a simple recent offense/defense blend estimates 41.0 points, 1.5 below the 42.5 strike.
    • NIU has averaged 12.4 points across five 2026 games; Wyoming has averaged 14.5 across six.
    • Most likely loss: short fields or explosive plays push both offenses into the mid-20s.
  2. Game total under 423 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Current five-game Northern Illinois offense: -0.08 EPA/play, .4219 success rate, 1.47 points/drive; six-game Wyoming offense: +0.00, .4443, 1.50.
    • Current scoring samples are modest: Northern Illinois 12.4 points/game and Wyoming 14.5; neither offense has produced a stable high-end efficiency profile.
    • Most likely loss: Northern Illinois' defense allows +0.20 EPA/play, giving Wyoming short-field or explosive-score paths above the total.
    Tempo Board
    • Season scoring baseline is only 12.4 NIU points and 14.5 Wyoming points per game; Wyoming’s 90.2 PFF defense grade supports the lower scoring rate.
    • Both teams are FBS with at least five current-season advanced rows; the captured sportsbook reference is 42.5, while the liquid ProphetX under rung is 42.
    • Most likely loss: NIU’s defense allows +0.20 EPA/play, creating short fields for Wyoming and enough points to reach 43.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only scoring averages and opponent-defense blend produce roughly 40.5 points, below ProphetX's 42.
    • Northern Illinois averages 9.5 points across four FBS games; Wyoming averages 13.2 across five.
    • The 4-game and 5-game samples are small and not opponent-adjusted.
  3. Wyoming −7.52 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsCFB Heater, Heater Two-Hour
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • Wyoming's 2026 team profile is materially stronger: 3-3 versus NIU 0-5, with a 90.2 defensive grade versus 63.6.
    • Wyoming has still lost three games, and a one-score result or late backdoor score loses the spread.
    Heater Two-Hour
      • The global token is already near 48.5c, so most of the momentum may be reflected before entry.
    • Wyoming Cowboys spread −72 models agree
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
      Why 2 models like it
      Saturday Board Pairs
      • Five-game Northern Illinois offense: -0.08 EPA/play and .4219 success rate, facing Wyoming's defense allowing +0.07 EPA/play; the defensive mismatch favors the home favorite.
      • PFF's current defense card is 90.2 for Wyoming versus 63.6 for Northern Illinois; both current samples clear the FBS and three-game coverage gates.
      • Most likely loss: Wyoming's near-neutral offense repeats its 16-, 0-, and 10-point recent outputs and cannot create separation.
      Key Number CFB
      • Wyoming’s six-game form has +0.00 offensive EPA/play and +0.07 defensive EPA allowed versus NIU at -0.04 and +0.20.
      • PFF favors Wyoming 81.9 overall and 90.2 defense to NIU’s 63.1 and 63.6; the efficiency/film gap shifts the mean beyond seven.
      • Most likely loss: Wyoming wins by 1, 6; exactly seven pushes rather than wins.
    • Northern Illinois Huskies to winLong shot2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      Resting Money
      • Book levels are tied 3-3; the two-measure thin/deep configuration still qualifies, with substantial raw stakes reducing single-order noise.
      • Directional check: backing Northern Illinois Huskies, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • The third measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 book levels.
      Long Way Home
      • ESPN’s live matchup model makes Northern Illinois a 37.4% winner; +275 implies only 26.7%.
      • FPI rates Wyoming -17.2 and Northern Illinois -18.4, near-even nationally despite Wyoming’s 74.0% market implication.
      • Northern Illinois is 0-5 recently and averaged only 10.3 points with 39.0 allowed in three 2026 road games.
    • Wyoming Cowboys −7.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Wyoming owns the efficiency matchup: +0.00 offensive EPA/play and +0.07 defensive EPA/play allowed versus NIU -0.08 and +0.20.
      • Wyoming leads in success rate (.444 to .422) and explosive rate (.126 to .116), with home field added.
      • Both quarterbacks are confirmed starters: Wyoming's Tyler Hughes and NIU's Taron Dickens; both teams have normal rest (8 versus 7 days).
      • Wyoming's offense is inconsistent: 1.50 points per drive and only 14.5 points per game through six games.
    Show all 14 picks
    1. Wyoming Cowboys to winFavorite
      +35%Won

      Taken at −285 on BetMGM

      D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current-season efficiency favors Wyoming: +0.00 offensive EPA/play versus Northern Illinois -0.08; defensive EPA allowed 0.07 versus 0.20.
      • Home/road split is decisive: Wyoming home offense +0.16 EPA/play and defense -0.09 versus NIU road offense -0.10 and defense 0.17.
      • Team-grade support: Wyoming defense 90.2 and special teams 75.0 versus NIU defense 63.6 and special teams 48.0.
      • ESPN's independent pregame model makes Wyoming only a 62.6% winner, a material disagreement with this composite.
    2. Wyoming Cowboys −7
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Wyoming -7 pushes on an exact seven-point win; Wyoming -7.5 loses there.
      • Pinnacle lists Wyoming -7 at -114 and -7.5 at +101; ProphetX improves the whole rung to -108.
      • No projection edge: this desk does not estimate Wyoming's probability of winning by more than seven.
    3. Game total under 41
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Directional check: backing under 41, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • The depth advantage is modest (1.16x), and the third measure is tied rather than supportive.
    4. Northern Illinois Huskies under 42 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Northern Illinois averages 12.4 points and -0.08 offensive EPA/play; Wyoming averages 14.5 points with a 22.08-second pace.
      • Wyoming’s 90.2 PFF defense faces Northern Illinois’ 63.6 overall team grade and a 0-5 Huskies record.
      • Key-number density: exact totals were 41 in 290/11,194 games and 42 in 141/11,194; the under-42 rung retains the 42 push.
      • Most likely loss: Wyoming exploits Northern Illinois’ +0.20 defensive EPA allowed per play and reaches 28-plus points.
    5. Game total under 41.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • existing under 42 is retained; the board moved to a new 41.5 rung, permitting this same-side line update.
      • Combined scoring averages are only 26.9 points; Wyoming’s 90.2 PFF defense and NIU’s 12.4 points per game support the under profile.
      • Most likely loss: NIU’s defense allows 0.20 EPA/play, creating short fields for Wyoming and enough points to clear 41.5.
    6. Northern Illinois Huskies spread +7
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ESPN's pregame model makes Wyoming a 4.4-point favorite, 2.6 points short of ProphetX's -7 main number.
      • Northern Illinois' season profile is weak, but Wyoming's offense averages only +0.00 EPA/play across six games; the projection does not support a touchdown margin.
      • captured Pinnacle is Wyoming -7.5, while ProphetX supplies the key +7 at plus money; reference is context, not the edge.
      • Wyoming has the better 2026 offense and defense by EPA: +0.00 versus -0.08 offensively and +0.07 versus +0.20 allowed.
    7. Game under 42.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −115 on DraftKings

      Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • NIU averages only 1.14 points per drive, while Wyoming's defense has allowed 0.07 EPA/play; the strongest scoring path is Wyoming controlling a low-efficiency NIU offense.
      • Season scoring inputs point below the market: my fair total is 39.5 versus DraftKings' 42.5.
      • NIU's slow 27.1-second pace and both teams' recent low-output games support fewer possessions and drives.
      • Wyoming plays quickly at 22.1 seconds per play, which can create extra possessions despite NIU's slower tempo.
    8. Northern Illinois Huskies +5.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels are tied 3-3, so levels do not add confirmation; the qualifying read is thin-at-quote plus deep-total.
      • ProphetX price is 40.65¢ (American +146); backing Northern Illinois, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level count does not corroborate: Northern Illinois 3, Wyoming 3.

    Questions

    Who won Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming?

    Wyoming won 41-23 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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