Northern Iowa vs. Youngstown StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalStambaugh Stadium
Northern Iowa3–2
22–35Final
Youngstown State5–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 22 |
| YOUN | 14 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonYoungstown State Penguins to win 91¢
Why D1 Winner likes it: Current per-play efficiency favors YSU: 0.346 offensive PPA and 52.6% success versus UNI's 0.027 and 41.0%.
D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +36% return
- Game total under 60.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- Model scenario estimate: 55.5% under probability at 60.5 versus a 45.87¢ ProphetX executable price.
- Northern Iowa averages 0.0107 EPA/play, 46.0% success and 2.21 points per drive in 2026.
- YSU averages 39.7 points and 0.353 EPA/play; explosive plays can clear this number quickly.
Long Way Home- Pinnacle independently backs the direction at under 60.5 +104; ProphetX offers the superior +118 price.
- CFB profiles point to a roughly mid-to-high-50s scoring baseline: Youngstown State averages 39.7 points, Northern Iowa 26.4, while their defenses allow 23.3 and 28.2.
- Most likely loss: Youngstown State's explosive offense repeats its recent 40-plus-point form and Northern Iowa adds 25-plus points.
- Youngstown State Penguins to win+10%Won
Taken at 91¢ on Kalshi
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current per-play efficiency favors YSU: 0.346 offensive PPA and 52.6% success versus UNI's 0.027 and 41.0%.
- YSU's primary passer has 1,821 yards, 17 TDs and 4 INTs; official UNI preview confirms Jaxon Dailey is back under center without an injury concern.
- UNI's defense is better in current per-play PPA allowed: 0.099 versus YSU's 0.135.
- Youngstown State Penguins spread −20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent margin gap is 24.6 points: Youngstown State is 4-1 at +22.8 per game over its last five; Northern Iowa is 3-2 at -1.8.
- Relevant splits favor the favorite: Youngstown State has averaged 53.3 points at home; Northern Iowa has averaged 12.0 points in two road games.
- Most likely loss: Northern Iowa's two road games are a tiny sample, and its 12-point road average is depressed by a 55-0 loss at Iowa.
Questions
Who won Northern Iowa vs. Youngstown State?
The Youngstown State won 35–22 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.