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Notre Dame vs. BYUFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLaVell Edwards Stadium
Notre Dame6–0
24–28Final
BYU5–0
Score by period
Team1234T
ND376824
BYU7140728

Top model pick, graded

Won

BYU Cougars to win 22¢

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-10 on this game · +40% return

  1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −10.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Pinnacle's exact 10.5 spread is -106 on both sides; devigged Notre Dame probability is 50.0%, so the model gap is 5.5 points.
    • Efficiency favors Notre Dame: +0.379 EPA/play, 57.4% success, 3.79 PPD versus BYU's +0.281, 53.0%, and 3.01.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's home offense converts explosive plays and keeps the margin inside 10 points.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Six-game Notre Dame versus five-game BYU sample: offense EPA/play is .3794 versus .2812; success rate is .5739 versus .5301.
    • Defensive EPA allowed favors Notre Dame, -.0838 versus BYU -.0170; points per drive also favors Notre Dame, 3.793 versus 3.007.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame wins by 10 or fewer after BYU's home-field explosiveness produces a backdoor score.
    Long Way Home
    • Projection, estimated cover probability 54%; ProphetX -102 implies 50.5% after American-to-probability conversion.
    • Notre Dame is 6-0 with a +34.0 average five-game scoring margin; BYU is 5-0 at +21.2.
    • BYU is at home and unbeaten; a Notre Dame win without separation is the most direct loss path.
  2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish −10.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsCFB Heater, NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • Pltrkr111 also holds the exact contract and has a 194-6 all-time CFB record (97.0%).
    • Notre Dame must win by 11; a close Irish win loses despite the strong 6-0 versus 5-0 team records.
    NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant
    • 17-25 ATS (68%): Notre Dame as a 7+ point favorite over 2024-26, clearing the 10-game/65% trend gate.
    • Net EPA/play gap is 0.165: Notre Dame 0.463 versus BYU 0.298, above the 0.10 matchup threshold.
    • The live board first captured DraftKings at 10.5; some reporting describes only a half-point move, so movement history is imperfect.
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish to winFavorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 79¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 81.5%: Notre Dame leads BYU in current-season offense EPA/play 0.379 to 0.281 and defensive EPA allowed -0.084 to -0.017.
    • Notre Dame leads success rate 57.4%-53.0% and average scoring margin 33.0-21.2 across six versus five games.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's home field and higher explosive rate (15.9% versus 13.3%) create enough big plays for an upset.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, ESPN's live pregame model gives Notre Dame a 79.2% win probability versus ProphetX's 78.26¢ implied price.
    • Notre Dame is the FPI No. 1 team at 29.46 rating, versus BYU No. 15 at 15.245: a 14.215-point rating gap.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's home field, an early turnover, or special-teams swing turns the unbeaten matchup into an upset.
  4. Bear Bachmeier over 181.5 passing yards2 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Bachmeier exceeded 181.5 passing yards in 4 of his 5 2026 games, averaging 206.6 yards.
    • LJ Martin is out 4-6 weeks, potentially shifting additional offensive responsibility toward Bachmeier.
    • Notre Dame’s defense grades 94.0 overall and averaged -0.084 defensive EPA allowed per play in current-season game rows.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Grade 73/100 (B): qualifying edge with moderate matchup risk.
    • 7/10 L10 and 4/5 L5 cleared 181.5; current-season hit rate is 80%.
    • Notre Dame's 2026 defense grades 94.0 overall with 91.4 coverage; this is the toughest opponent on the sample.
  5. Game total over 47.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Gap
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Notre Dame's six-game offense is +0.3794 EPA/play versus BYU's -0.0170 defensive EPA/play allowed: a +0.3964 matchup gap.
    • BYU's five-game offense is +0.2812 EPA/play versus Notre Dame's -0.0838 defensive EPA/play allowed: a +0.3650 matchup gap.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame's defense suppresses BYU while the slow pace turns Irish drives into field goals, keeping the game below 48.
    Tempo Gap
    • Efficiency supports scoring: Notre Dame averages 0.379 EPA/play, 57.4% success, 3.79 points/drive; BYU averages 0.281 EPA/play, 53.0% success, 3.01 points/drive.
    • CJ Carr and Bear Bachmeier are the verified primary quarterbacks; 65° weather, 2-mph wind, and 0% rain remove a weather penalty.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's offense stalls after LJ Martin's reported 4, 6 week absence, while Notre Dame shortens the game with a lead.
  6. BYU Cougars to winLong shot
    +355%Won

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
Show all 18 picks
  1. Over 47.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main total 47.0: Over -108 / Under -108, devigged Over probability 50.0%; Kalshi's exact 47.5 rung has no sharp quote, so this is a DERIVED REFERENCE.
    • Load-bearing factor is approximately 21.5 adjusted possessions from 131.6 combined current plays, roughly 32-second pace, and current points-per-drive rates of 3.79 for Notre Dame and 3.01 for BYU; band RECOMMENDED, Tier 2.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's home defense suppresses Notre Dame below 30 points and the game finishes at 47 or fewer.
  2. Over 47 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession load-bearing factor: 131.6 combined current-season plays (Notre Dame 69.2, BYU 62.4); combined points-per-drive average is 6.80.
    • Efficiency supports scoring: Notre Dame averages +0.379 EPA/play and BYU +0.281; CJ Carr and Bear Bachmeier are the verified starters, cross-checked to recent passing ledgers.
    • Most likely loss: possessions fall below the 131.6-play baseline or red-zone stalls leave the game at 47 or fewer; exactly 47 pushes.
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish first-half spread NO 6.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the same 2026 efficiency blend projects a 4.6-point first-half mean, below the 6.5 threshold.
    • Empirical 2,617-game regular-season margin SD is 15.74; square-root scaling gives a 11.13 first-half SD, not 7.87.
    • model probability of Notre Dame margin ≤6.5 is 56.7%, versus a 50¢ executable NO price.
    • The 6.2-point probability gap is modest relative to first-half variance; one explosive touchdown can erase it.
  4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish first-half spread NO 2.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring-margin gap is 11.8; EPA matchup adds 5.4 full-game points; blended half mean is 4.6.
    • model probability of Notre Dame margin ≤2.5 is 42.5%, versus a 36¢ executable NO price.
    • Pinnacle full-game Notre Dame -10.5; half-scaled mean 5.25 gives approximately 40.2% NO at this rung.
    • The 6.5-point probability gap relies on a normal approximation and only five-to-six current-season games per team.
  5. CJ Carr over 1.5 passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −140 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Carr cleared 1.5 passing TDs in 4 of his 5 2026 games, averaging 2.4 passing TDs.
    • Notre Dame’s recent offense averaged +0.379 EPA per play through October 10.
    • BYU’s 2026 pass grade is 70.4, materially below Notre Dame’s 86.9 passing grade.
    • BYU’s overall defense grade is 90.2 and coverage grade is 91.0.
  6. Game total under 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number density: the 47.5-to-48 rung adds push protection at 48, where the CFB histogram has 323 exact totals versus 221 at 47.
    • Notre Dame's 2026 profile is strong defensively: -0.0838 EPA allowed/play and 11.0 points allowed per game; BYU allows -0.0170 EPA/play.
    • PFF grades show Notre Dame's 94.0 defense and BYU's 90.2 defense; the sharp sportsbook reference is 47, supporting a sub-48 projection.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's 34.6 points-per-game offense and Notre Dame's explosive passing create a 28-24 or higher-scoring script.
  7. Game total over 47
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup EPA: Notre Dame offense +0.379 vs BYU defense -0.017; BYU offense +0.281 vs Notre Dame defense -0.084.
    • QB gate cleared: CJ Carr and Bear Bachmeier led latest passing boxes; official/web checks identify both starters.
    • Most likely loss: elite defenses turn red-zone trips into punts or field goals, keeping the game at 47 or lower.
  8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −10
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Notre Dame averages +0.379 offensive EPA/play and -0.084 defensive EPA/play versus BYU’s +0.281 and -0.017.
    • ESPN’s pregame projection gives Notre Dame 79.2% and a projected margin of 11.396 points; the ProphetX number is -10.
    • Pinnacle’s captured main spread is Notre Dame -10.5, while ProphetX offers the better -10 at -118.
    • BYU is 5-0 with a +21.2 average recent scoring margin and has home-field advantage in Provo.
  9. BYU to winLong shot
    +355%Won

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • First Take, Oct. 16: “I don't think Notre Dame has an excuse to lose to anyone but Miami.”
    • That blanket claim directly covers Notre Dame's scheduled BYU road game; the fade is BYU winning.
    • The market strongly favors Notre Dame, so this is a small-price contrarian longshot rather than a consensus play.
    • Notre Dame is the clear market favorite at roughly 79%; BYU must win outright.
  10. Game first-half total over 23.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 drive results: Notre Dame first-half 4.00 points per drive vs 3.79 full (+5.5%); BYU 3.38 vs 3.01 (+12.2%).
    • PROE averages +0.0656 Notre Dame and +0.0346 BYU; explosive rates are 13.3% and 15.9%.
    • Drive estimate assigns 7 points per touchdown and 3 per field goal, excluding defensive scores; sample spans only 11 games.
  11. BYU Cougars spread +10
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are BYU 3 vs Notre Dame 3; the thin/deep two-measure test passes with substantial raw stakes.
    • Directional coherence: backing BYU +10, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate BYU.
  12. Over 46.5 total points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence check: backing over 46.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 over levels versus 3 under levels; this is not a three-measure signal.

Questions

Who won Notre Dame vs. BYU?

The BYU won 28–24 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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