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Ohio State vs. IndianaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMemorial Stadium (Bloomington
Ohio State5–1
19–15Final
Indiana6–0
Score by period
Team1234T
OSU373619
IU070815

Top model pick, graded

Won

Jeremiah Smith under 8.5 receptions −128

Why Touch Share Saturday likes it: Yards per target rose 13.6 to 14.7 to 18.6 while target share fell 44.4% to 23.8%; efficiency rose 37% as usage contracted.

Touch Share SaturdayDown 18% this season · 61 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-19 on this game · −46% return

  1. Indiana Hoosiers to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsHeater Two-Hour, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Heater Two-Hour
    • Both positions are substantial and recent: 4,878 and 3,039 contracts on Indiana.
    • US Indiana NO costs 42c, only about 1.8c above their size-weighted average entry.
    • A high-performing Ohio State holder is also present, so global smart money is not unanimous.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • 2026 six-game profile: Indiana leads Ohio State in offensive EPA/play (0.395 vs 0.310), success rate (54.5% vs 54.1%), and explosive rate (17.5% vs 15.7%).
    • Indiana is 6-0 with a +28.3 recent scoring margin and has home field; Ohio State is 5-1 at +29.5, keeping this closer than the price implies.
    • Ohio State owns the stronger defensive EPA profile (-0.114 allowed EPA/play versus Indiana's -0.044), and the market still makes the Buckeyes the favorite.
    Skip Bayless Tracker
    • @RealSkipBayless feed item at 9:15 PDT gives the specific score: “Indiana 24, Ohio State 21.”
    • That score directly implies an Indiana outright win in today's scheduled matchup.
    • The feed item has no retrievable post URL or corroborating web result; provenance is limited to the supplied @RealSkipBayless item.
  2. Indiana Hoosiers spread +2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Rnj
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Current net efficiency is slightly Indiana-positive: +0.014 EPA/play and +0.062 points/drive after comparing both teams' six-game profiles.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's defensive EPA edge (-0.114 allowed versus Indiana -0.044) produces a three-point-or-more win.
    Rnj
    • Fair margin: Ohio State by approximately 0.5 points; Indiana +2.5 creates roughly a 2.0-point margin edge.
    • ESPN pregame model makes Ohio State only 0.486 points better; FPI and SP+ neutral gaps are 2.49 and 2.8 points before home field.
    • Indiana’s last-three FBS points-per-drive average is 2.84 versus Ohio State’s 3.84, a meaningful recent efficiency warning.
  3. Game total over 49.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Six-game 2026 sample: Ohio State offense +0.310 EPA/play and .541 success rate; Indiana +0.3947 EPA/play and .5447 success rate.
    • Efficiency matchup gaps remain favorable: Indiana offense .3947 versus Ohio State defense allowing -.1139 EPA/play; Ohio State offense .310 versus Indiana allowing -.0437.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's elite defense, allowing -.1139 EPA/play, suppresses Indiana and leaves the game below 50.
    Long Way Home
    • Ohio State and Indiana average 42.7 and 40.2 points through six games; 49.5 is materially below that combined scoring baseline.
    • Both offenses post strong efficiency: Indiana +0.395 and Ohio State +0.310 EPA/play, with success rates of 54.5% and 54.1%.
    • Ohio State's defense averages -0.114 EPA/play allowed, a meaningful matchup edge over Indiana's -0.044.
  4. Jeremiah Smith under 8.5 receptionsHigh conviction
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yards per target rose 13.6 to 14.7 to 18.6 while target share fell 44.4% to 23.8%; efficiency rose 37% as usage contracted.
    • Smith still ran routes at 89.3% last game and 96.6% for the season; Indiana's 30.61-second recent pace further limits the passing pie.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana forces Ohio State into an early pass-heavy script, Smith regains 12-plus targets, and converts nine or more receptions.
  5. Over 50.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tier 2 RECOMMENDED: 22.2 current projected drives, opponent-adjusted points-per-drive, efficiency and explosive rates converge toward the Over.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana's offense stalls against Ohio State's defense and the game finishes at 50 points or fewer.
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes spread over 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live anchor is Ohio State -3 at -107; the 4.5-point rung is only 1.5 points away.
    • Normal SD-16 margin model centered on the -3 anchor gives about 46%; key-number reweighting supports roughly 48%.
    • Ohio State's projected 48% still leaves substantial one-score variance around 4.5.
Show all 24 picks
  1. Ohio State Buckeyes first-half winner
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Pinnacle full-game Ohio State -3.5 (-112) agrees directionally and is scaled to the first-half state.
    • Unit check passed: Kalshi probabilities arrived as fractions; three-way mids are OSU 0.595, Indiana 0.315, tie 0.085, summing to 0.995 before devigging.
    • Confirmed starters are Julian Sayin and Josh Hoover; live score is Ohio State 3-0, with 27 first-quarter plays and Indiana 2-of-7 passing for 25 yards.
    • Reference is derived from a full-game sharp line, not a genuine first-half sharp market; first-half scaling is the main model uncertainty.
  2. Turbo Richard over 54.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of his last 10 appearances cleared 54.5 rushing yards; 5 of 6 in 2026 have cleared it.
    • Model probability 67% versus FanDuel -110 implied 52.4%: +14.6 percentage points.
    • His current-season rushing average is 99.5 yards, with 15 or more carries in three of six games.
    • Ohio State's defense has allowed -0.114 EPA per play, a much tougher matchup than Richard's recent average.
  3. Jeremiah Smith over 122.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of his last 10 appearances cleared 122.5 yards; current-season average is 152.7.
    • Model probability 64% versus FanDuel -112 implied 52.8%: +11.2 percentage points.
    • Indiana's 81.0 PFF coverage grade is materially below Ohio State's 93.1 defensive coverage grade.
    • The line is high: he missed in 4 of the last 10 appearances.
  4. Indiana Hoosiers spread +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio State defense leads the matchup, but Indiana's offense has the stronger 2026 EPA/play profile: +0.395 vs Ohio State +0.310.
    • Indiana's +0.545 success rate and Ohio State's +0.541 are nearly even; the home underdog gets the venue edge.
    • Both teams played October 10, so rest is equal at seven days; no scheduling disadvantage offsets Indiana's home field.
    • Ohio State's defense allows -0.114 EPA/play versus Indiana's -0.044, the clearest matchup edge and the main way the favorite separates.
  5. Ohio State Buckeyes spread −2
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six-game FBS sample: Ohio State owns the stronger defense, allowing -0.114 EPA/play versus Indiana's -0.044.
    • Ohio State's offense averages +0.310 EPA/play, .541 success and .157 explosive rate; Indiana is +0.395, .545 and .175, but faces the materially tougher defense.
    • PFF confirmation: Ohio State coverage 93.1 and overall 96.0 versus Indiana coverage 81.0 and overall 95.2.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana's +0.395 EPA/play offense creates explosive home possessions before Ohio State's defense can separate.
  6. Indiana Hoosiers +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B): clears the 70-point fire threshold.
    • Indiana is 6-0 this season; five wins cleared three points, and the current number is home +3.
    • Pinnacle/FanDuel moved from roughly Ohio State -3.5 toward -3 or -2.5, supporting the home side.
    • Ohio State ranks ahead in FPI (#3 vs #6) and SP+ (#1 vs #5), so the opponent-quality edge is real.
  7. Over 49 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing over 49, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX is the only reference; depth may be stale, cancelled, or concentrated among a few participants.
  8. Total points under 51.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio State allows -0.1139 defensive EPA/play; Indiana allows -0.0437, supporting a lower scoring projection.
    • Six-game scoring averages are Ohio State 42.7, Indiana 40.2; defensive allowances are only 13.2 and 11.8 points.
    • Most likely loss: both efficient offenses create explosives or short fields and reach 52 points.
  9. Indiana Hoosiers spread +4
    0%Push

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The +3/+3.5 area already captures the major key-3 mass, while +4 adds another underpriced push-protection rung; Pinnacle's reference board centers Indiana +3.
    • Indiana's 2026 offense averages +0.3947 EPA/play versus Ohio State's +0.3100; official checks and the latest pass-attempt rows confirm Josh Hoover and Julian Sayin.
    • Single most likely win path: Indiana's home offense keeps the game within four while the ladder's key-number density makes +4 more valuable than its flat-step quote.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's stronger defense (-0.1139 defensive EPA allowed/play versus Indiana's -0.0437) creates a margin above four.
  10. Game total under 51.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The live team-total anchors are Indiana 23.5 and Ohio State 27.5, summing to 51; under 51.5 retains a half-point ladder cushion.
    • Both defenses are positive for the under read by EPA allowed: Ohio State -0.1139 and Indiana -0.0437 per play across six games.
    • UPDATE, not a flip: the existing under 52 remains open; ProphetX's main rung moved to 49.5, making 51.5 a permitted same-side new line at the current board.
    • Most likely loss: both high-efficiency offenses convert explosives and short fields, producing 52 or more points.
  11. Game total under 52
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams are FBS, 6-0 or 5-1, and each has six current-season advanced rows; PFF grades are strong but do not overturn the venue's lower team-total anchors.
    • Reference only: sportsbooks show 50.5; that is context, not the placement price or the edge class.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's explosive offense and Indiana's unbeaten home attack convert efficiency into 53 or more points.
  12. Jeremiah Smith first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +500 on DraftKings

    CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +500 implies 16.7%; my 18% estimate makes fair odds approximately +456.
    • Jeremiah Smith has 48 catches, 916 yards and 11 receiving touchdowns through six games, the clearest Ohio State scoring concentration.
    • Ohio State’s fallback current-season offense is +0.310 EPA/play, 54.1% success and 15.7% explosive rate; Indiana allows -0.044 defensive EPA/play.
    • First-touchdown markets are exceptionally high variance; a field goal, turnover, Indiana score or another Ohio State player ends the claim.
  13. Indiana Hoosiers second-half to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RealSkipBayless, 11:05 AM PDT feed item: “I’ll still take Josh Hoover over Sayin in the 2nd half.”
    • Live confirmation has Ohio State ahead 10-7 at halftime, with Hoover and Sayin as the relevant quarterbacks.
    • Kalshi’s second-half market includes a tie outcome, so Indiana must win the half outright.
  14. Indiana Hoosiers first-half spread over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 regular-season signed team-game margins (1,638 rows) have SD 27.29; square-root half scaling gives first-half SD 19.29, not 13.65.
    • Six-game scoring-margin blend projects Ohio State +0.58 full, or Indiana -0.29 at halftime; N(-0.29, 19.29²) gives Indiana over 2.5 probability about 44.2% versus 37¢.
    • own 823-game cfb_game_final histogram has exact margins 3 (67) and 7 (55) as the leading masses; 2.5 sits immediately before the measured 3-point mass.
    • the live captured sportsbook board had no spread; this is a derived same-rung reference and remains LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
  15. Indiana Hoosiers first-half spread over 3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,676 FBS finals from 2024, 26 show signed-margin SD 22.81; square-root half scaling gives first-half SD 16.13.
    • Six-game PF/PA blend projects Ohio State +0.58 full, +0.29 at halftime; Indiana clearing 3.5 models at 40.7%.
    • QB gate cleared: Julian Sayin and Josh Hoover led each team’s last three passing games; live previews identify both quarterbacks.
    • A 16.13-point first-half SD makes a 40.7% tail volatile; one short-field turnover can decide the rung.
  16. First-half total over 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace: valid Ohio State 28.52/31.38 sec per play; Indiana 27.49/30.17/30.13; blended 29.6.
    • Season window: six 2026 games; 71.17 Ohio State plays and 61.17 Indiana plays per game imply 66.2 first-half plays.
    • Ohio State has four implausible 3.13, 4.94 pace entries; excluding them leaves only two valid pace observations.
  17. Ohio State −2
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing Ohio State -2, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX graded quote is 52.61¢ (-110 American).
    • Book-level corroboration is absent: Ohio State and Indiana each have 3 levels.
  18. Ohio State Buckeyes spread −3
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio State averaged +0.310 offensive EPA/play and -0.114 defensive EPA/play allowed across six games.
    • Indiana's undefeated record inflates the home-side narrative; its defense averaged only -0.044 EPA/play allowed versus Ohio State's -0.114.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana wins outright or Ohio State wins by 1-2; exactly three points is a push, not a win.

Questions

Who won Ohio State vs. Indiana?

The Ohio State won 19–15 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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