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Penn State vs. MichiganFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMichigan Stadium
Penn State3–3
18–21Final
Michigan3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
PSU3001518
MICH0014721

Top model pick, graded

Won

Penn State Nittany Lions +6.5 −110

Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Penn State season offense: +0.105 EPA/play versus Michigan's +0.053; success rates are nearly even.

Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-9 on this game · +21% return

  1. Penn State Nittany Lions to winLong shot5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket

    5 modelsCFB Heater, Drift +3
    Why 5 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • Penn State’s recent offense EPA/play is 0.177 versus Michigan’s 0.046 over the latest 10-game windows.
    • Jby’s purchase is roughly 12.5 hours old; no same-day Jby trade was observed.
    Drift
    • Penn State leads Michigan in 2026 average margin (+12.0 to +7.2), offensive EPA/play (0.105 to 0.053), and defensive EPA allowed (-0.027 to -0.004).
    • Penn State also has the slight explosive-play edge (10.7% to 10.5%); both starting QBs are identified as Rocco Becht and Bryce Underwood.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan's home field and Penn State's recent 2-3 L5 form outweigh the season efficiency gap.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Penn State FPI rating is 12.534 versus Michigan 10.887, supporting a closer matchup than the moneyline implies.
    • Penn State won 7 of its last 10 completed games entering this matchup; +188 FanDuel creates meaningful upside if the model gap holds.
    • Penn State is only 2-3 over its most recent five games and 3-3 this season; recent form conflicts with the rating edge.
    Key Number CFB
    • Penn State's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.1048 versus Michigan's +0.0525 across six and five games.
    • Penn State's defense allows -0.0266 EPA/play versus Michigan's -0.0044; scoring form is 30.5, 18.5 versus 23.0, 15.8.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan wins at home; the moneyline has no spread protection.
  2. Penn State Nittany Lions +6.52 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on williamhill_us

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, CFB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Penn State season offense: +0.105 EPA/play versus Michigan's +0.053; success rates are nearly even.
    • Season scoring-margin baseline makes Michigan roughly a 2-point favorite, creating 4.5 points of cushion at +6.5.
    • Michigan has the rest edge: its last game was October 3, while Penn State played October 10.
    CFB HunterV2
    • Penn State averages 0.105 offensive EPA per play versus Michigan's 0.053 this season.
    • Penn State +6.5 is priced -118 at FanDuel versus Pinnacle's -120 reference; model cover probability is 58.5%.
    • Michigan's 92.9 PFF team defense and 83.7 pass-rush grade face Penn State's 65.2 pass-block grade.
  3. Game total under 42.52 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Penn State’s six-game offense is +0.1048 EPA/play with a .4610 success rate; Michigan’s five-game offense is +0.0525 with a .4690 success rate.
    • Both defenses are efficient: Penn State allows -0.0266 EPA/play and Michigan -0.0044; explosive rates are only .1074 and .1047.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan’s home offense converts Penn State’s defensive absences and pushes the game above 42.5.
    Long Way Home
    • a home/away offense-defense blend projects approximately 40.8 points.
    • Michigan home games average 25.25 scored and 14.75 allowed; Penn State road games average 20.0 scored and 21.5 allowed.
    • Most likely loss: explosive plays or short fields push the game above 42.5 despite the baseline projection.
  4. Penn State Nittany Lions spread +62 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • sportsbooks cluster Michigan -5.5 to -6.5; ProphetX's +6 is the venue price, not the model.
    • Six-game Penn State offense: +0.1048 EPA/play and .461 success; five-game Michigan offense: +0.0525 and .469.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan's 14-day rest and home field turn its defensive edge into a multi-score win.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Penn State leads Michigan in 2026 FBS EPA/play, 0.105 to 0.053 offense and -0.027 to -0.004 defense.
    • Penn State has a small explosiveness edge, 10.7% to 10.5%, across six FBS games versus Michigan's five.
    • Michigan has home field and the slightly better success rate, 46.9% to 46.1%.
  5. Michigan Wolverines −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 51.4%: current Pinnacle -5.5 -112 / Penn State +5.5 +100, multiplicatively de-vigged.
    • Rocco Becht and Bryce Underwood are identified as the matchup quarterbacks in Oct. 16 reports; no QB change is unresolved.
    • Pinnacle moved from -6.5 at open to -5.5, so the market may be correctly downgrading Michigan.
  6. Carson Hansen over 26.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100: Hansen cleared 26.5 rushing yards in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of 6 this season.
    • His current-season mean is 37.8 rushing yards; a conservative matchup-adjusted projection near 33.5 is still 26.4% above the posted line.
    • L5 hit rate is 60% and season hit rate is 67%; the -114 FanDuel price implies only 53.3% before modeling.
    • Hansen's current workload is uneven: his last six rushing attempts are 14, 4, 4, 5, 19, and 11.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Michigan −4
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Michigan depth is $11,627 versus Penn State's $7,151, a 1.626 ratio behind the quote.
    • Book levels are Michigan 3 versus Penn State 2; all three measures point to Michigan as the patient-demand side.
    • REFERENCE only; ProphetX quotes -126 (55.75c). Backing Michigan, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX is the only order-flow source; one stale or concentrated participant can distort all three measures.
  2. Game total over 45 (exact 45 pushes; 2.8% historical)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At 45, over 45 pushes; adjacent over 45.5 loses. ProphetX charges only six American-price points more for over 45.5 (+122 vs +116).
    • Over 45 still loses on 0-45; the push option helps only on exactly 45, while scoring variance is wide.
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions spread +7
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26 histogram: exact 7-point margins occurred 348 of 4,483 games (7.8%); the +6-to+7 ladder gap prices only 5.9 percentage points.
    • Penn’s 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.105 versus Michigan’s +0.053; defensive EPA allowed is -0.027 versus -0.004 across 6 and 5 games.
    • QB gate cleared: last box leaders were Rocco Becht and Bryce Underwood; same-day checks found no quarterback OUT, doubtful, or open-battle report.
    • Michigan owns the home field and a 93.0 PFF team grade versus Penn State’s 91.1.
  4. Michigan Wolverines first-half spread NO 3.5Favorite
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,700 FBS finals, 2024, 26: full-game margin SD 15.64; histogram peaks at 3 (242), 7 (196), and 10 (110).
    • Square-root half scaling gives SD 11.05, versus 7.82 under naive linear halving; 3.5 sits beyond the 3-point mass.
    • Prior 2026 drives averaged Penn State 11.67 and Michigan 10.40; PPD 2.523 vs 1.947 projects Michigan −3.2 at halftime.
    • Live state is Penn State 3, 0 with 4:01 left in Q1; an immediate Michigan score changes the remaining-half distribution.
  5. Michigan Wolverines first-half spread NO 2.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Michigan -5.5 scales to a +2.75 first-half mean.
    • 2676 FBS finals from 2024, 26 give full-game SD 15.66; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 11.07.
    • mean +2.75 and SD 11.07 imply Michigan clears 2.5 in 50.9%, so NO wins 49.1%.
    • Key-number mass: exact margin 3 was the largest historical mode, 237 of 2,676 games; the 2.5 rung sits immediately below it.
  6. Rocco Becht over 196.5 passing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Becht exceeded 196.5 passing yards in 6 of his last 10 appearances.
    • He is over the line in 5 of 6 2026 games, averaging 232.8 passing yards.
    • Model probability 59% versus FanDuel -112 implied 52.8%, a 6.2-point value edge.
    • Michigan's defense allowed -0.0044 EPA per play and carries a 92.9 team defensive grade.
  7. Rocco Becht over 0.5 passing touchdownsFavorite
    +50%Won

    Taken at −200 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Rocco Becht's last 10 appearances cleared 0.5 passing touchdowns.
    • He has 11 passing touchdowns in six 2026 games, averaging 1.83 per game.
    • Model probability 76% versus FanDuel -200 implied 66.7%, a 9.3-point value edge.
    • Michigan's defense allowed -0.0044 EPA per play, ranking 77th of 315 teams.
  8. First-half total over 23.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace, valid Penn State pace is 24.20 seconds/play across two games and Michigan 28.54 across five; blended pace is 26.37.
    • Pinnacle held 42.5 while over price strengthened from -103 to -114; Rocco Becht and Bryce Underwood are live-supported expected starters.
    • Central projection is only about 0.6 points above 23.5; first-half touchdown and turnover variance dominates.
  9. Penn State Nittany Lions–Michigan Wolverines total under 41.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 under versus 3 over; the thin-at-quote plus deep-total pairing supplies the qualifying two-of-three read.
    • Directional coherence check: backing under 41.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The third measure is neutral: book_levels are 3 versus 3, so this is not a fully corroborated three-measure signal.
  10. Game total under 43
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Defensive EPA allowed averages are Penn State -0.0266 and Michigan -0.0044; PFF defenses grade 89.0 and 92.9.
    • FBS gate clears: both are Big Ten FBS teams with six and five current-season advanced rows; QB availability is cleared.
    • Most likely loss: a few Penn State explosives or short fields turn the matchup into a 44-plus-point game.
  11. Game total under 41
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tempo read is slower than the market profile: Michigan averages 27.46 seconds/play; Penn State’s valid current entries are 22.75 and 25.65 seconds/play after malformed sub-10-second rows are excluded.
    • Defensive quality supports the under: 2026 PFF defense grades are 89.0 for Penn State and 92.9 for Michigan, with coverage grades of 92.0 and 90.9.
    • QB gate cleared: Rocco Becht led Penn State’s latest passing box and is documented as a 2026 starter; Michigan confirmed Bryce Underwood as its starter on Oct. 16.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan’s home offense or Penn State’s +8.3% six-game PROE converts enough explosives to reach 42 or more.

Questions

Who won Penn State vs. Michigan?

The Michigan won 21–18 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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