Portland State vs. Northern ArizonaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJ. Lawrence Walkup Skydome
Portland State2-4
25–38Final
Northern Arizona5-2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PORT | 7 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| NORT | 0 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 38 |
Top model pick, graded
WonPortland State Vikings spread +18 51¢
Why Long Way Home likes it: Portland State's 0-84 Oregon result is a major season-margin outlier; its last two games were wins by 3 and 16.
Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3706 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-1 on this game · −2% return
- Game total over 64.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 68.4 projected total is 6.0% above FanDuel's 64.5 line.
- Over hit in 7 of the 10 priced recent team games: Portland State 4/5, Northern Arizona 3/5.
- Portland State allows 0.28 EPA/play and 45.0 points per game; NAU averages 2.21 points per drive.
- The total rose from 61.5 to 64.5; the three-point move compresses the original over value.
- Portland State Vikings spread +18+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Portland State's 0-84 Oregon result is a major season-margin outlier; its last two games were wins by 3 and 16.
- Northern Arizona's last two wins were by only 7 and 5; an outlier-adjusted matchup projection is closer to a one-score-to-two-score game than 18 points.
- Most likely loss: Northern Arizona's stronger offense and Portland State's +0.28 defensive EPA allowed produce a 19-point win or larger.
Questions
Who won Portland State vs. Northern Arizona?
Northern Arizona won 38-25 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.