Presbyterian vs. StetsonFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSpec Martin Memorial Stadium
Presbyterian3–3
47–43Final
Stetson1–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRES | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 47 |
| STET | 0 | 15 | 0 | 28 | 43 |
Top model pick, graded
WonPresbyterian Blue Hose 76¢
Why D1 Winner likes it: Efficiency gap: Presbyterian +0.014 offensive EPA/play and +0.460 success rate versus Stetson -0.084 and .399.
D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −67% return
- Presbyterian Blue Hose+32%Won
Taken at 76¢ on Kalshi
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency gap: Presbyterian +0.014 offensive EPA/play and +0.460 success rate versus Stetson -0.084 and .399.
- Defensive EPA allowed favors Presbyterian: +0.156 versus Stetson +0.387, with Stetson also allowing fewer explosive plays offensively.
- QB/injury family supports Presbyterian: Landon Sharpe has 1,362 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT; no backup or injury downgrade is indicated.
- Stetson is at home and its 2026 passing grade is 76.0 versus Presbyterian's 58.9.
- Presbyterian Blue Hose −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Tailgate
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Presbyterian's 2026 offense is +0.0137 EPA/play versus Stetson's -0.0844, with a 46.0% to 39.9% success-rate edge.
- Presbyterian's defense allows +0.1562 EPA/play versus Stetson's +0.3867; the 0.2305 efficiency gap supports separation.
- Presbyterian won its last two 38-21 and 55-21; Stetson lost its last two by 14 and 43 points.
- ESPN SRS rates Stetson 11.9 points better than Presbyterian, a meaningful opponent-adjusted disagreement.
- Total points under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's 61.0 and DraftKings' 61.5 reference totals corroborate a lower executable rung than the exchange's under 60.5 offer.
- Stetson has -0.0844 offensive EPA/play, .3991 success rate and 1.247 points/drive; Presbyterian's six-game scoring baseline is 27.3 points.
- The empirical CFB baseline is 55.73 points; 6,481 of 10,371 regular/postseason games finished under 60.5 (62.5%).
- Most likely loss: Stetson's pass-heavy +0.2481 PROE and both defenses' explosive-play variance produce 61 or more.
- Game total under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- My conservative matchup projection is 57 total points, 3.5 below the 60.5 threshold.
- Stetson averages 13.4 points and -0.084 offensive EPA/play across five games; its offense has topped 21 only once.
- Pinnacle's adjacent under 61 is -101, supporting a market total near this threshold; ProphetX offers +117 on under 60.5.
- Most likely loss: Stetson's defense, allowing 50.0 points per game, gives Presbyterian short fields and a 40-plus-point output.
Questions
Who won Presbyterian vs. Stetson?
The Presbyterian won 47–43 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.