Rhode Island vs. YaleFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalYale Bowl
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHOD | 14 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| YALE | 0 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-4 on this game · −100% return
- Yale Bulldogs win by over 11.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Yale’s 2026 offense averages +0.1639 EPA/play versus Rhode Island’s -0.0043.
- Yale’s success rate is 48.7% versus Rhode Island’s 41.7%; explosive-play rate is 13.8% versus 10.4%.
- Yale averages 2.43 points per drive versus Rhode Island’s 1.61.
- Yale has only four 2026 games, so its efficiency sample is thin and opponent adjustment is imperfect.
- Yale Bulldogs −14−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Yale -13.5 is quoted -170 (62.96¢ implied); the adjacent -14 rung wins at 15+ and pushes exactly at 14.
- Total points under 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rhode Island averaged -0.0043 offensive EPA/play and 22.3 points; Yale's defense allowed -0.0282 EPA/play over current-season games.
- Yale's +0.1639 offensive EPA/play meets a Rhode Island defense allowing -0.0154; the matchup blend centers near 50, 51 points.
- Empirical 51-point outcomes (363) and 52-point outcomes (291) in 11,194 regular/postseason CFB games show meaningful mass around this rung.
- Most likely loss: Yale's efficient offense and Rhode Island's limited scoring profile still produce 52 or more points.
- Game total under 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 scoring averages blend to roughly 51-52 points: Yale 33.0 scored/24.25 allowed; Rhode Island 22.33/23.83.
- Rhode Island's offense is below average in this sample: -0.004 EPA/play and 41.7% success; Yale allows -0.028 EPA/play.
- The 51.5 number supplies one to three points of protection against the broader market's 49-50.5 range; reference is sharp-line, not a guarantee.
- The projection is thin: six Rhode Island games and four Yale games, with no verified roster-change or coaching data in the warehouse.
Questions
Who won Rhode Island vs. Yale?
The Rhode Island won 41–23 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.