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Rutgers vs. MarylandFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSECU Stadium
Rutgers1–4
37–30Final
Maryland2–4
Score by period
Team1234T
RUTG76101437
MD7180530

Top model pick, graded

Won

Rutgers Scarlet Knights spread +5.5 49¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Pinnacle main line is Maryland -6.0 +100 / Rutgers +6.0 -113; devigged Rutgers reference is 51.5%; exact +5.5 is DERIVED REFERENCE.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-10 on this game · +19% return

  1. Game total under 55.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    3 modelsKickoff Ledger, House Rules +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Fair total is 52.5; Under 55.5 at -105 gives a three-point margin.
    • Maryland's offense has scored 16, 23 and 3 points in its last three games; Rutgers scored 15 and 21 in its two most recent games.
    • Season averages still imply scoring: Rutgers averages 30.0 points and Maryland 28.0, while both defenses allow more than 32.
    House Rules
    • Under 55.5 wins at exactly 55; adjacent under 55 pushes at exactly 55.
    • CFB historical total-55 frequency is 3.788% (424 completed regular/postseason games).
    • The half-point contract cannot push and loses at 56 or more.
    Tempo Gap
    • Opponent-adjusted efficiency leans down: Rutgers averages +0.134 EPA/play and 48.2% success, while Maryland allows only +0.035 EPA/play; Maryland averages +0.071 EPA/play and 46.1% success against a Rutgers defense allowing +0.120.
    • 54°F kickoff, sustained 16-mph north wind and gusts to 28 mph should reduce passing efficiency and the upper-tail explosive plays; rain risk is minimal.
    • Rutgers and Maryland defenses allow 32.2 and 32.7 points per game, respectively; a busted coverage or short field can erase the edge quickly.
  2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights spread +5.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, Kickoff Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Pinnacle main line is Maryland -6.0 +100 / Rutgers +6.0 -113; devigged Rutgers reference is 51.5%; exact +5.5 is DERIVED REFERENCE.
    • Most likely loss: Maryland's home advantage and Rutgers' 0.120 average defensive EPA allowed produce a win by six or more.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Fair spread is Maryland -2.5; +5.5 at -110 gives a three-point cushion versus the market.
    • Rutgers has the stronger 2026 offensive EPA/play (.134 vs Maryland .071); Maryland's defensive edge (.0345 allowed vs .1204) is real but not five points.
    • Maryland's defense is materially better by EPA, and Rutgers has allowed 32.2 points per game.
  3. Rutgers Scarlet Knights spread +62 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Pinnacle's exact -6 reference is Maryland -6 +100 / Rutgers +6 -113; devigged Rutgers probability is 51.5%.
    • Load-bearing efficiency gap favors the dog: Rutgers averages +0.134 EPA/play and 2.63 points/drive versus Maryland +0.071 and 2.21; +6 adds key-number protection.
    • Most likely loss: Maryland's stronger current defense, +0.0345 EPA/play allowed versus Rutgers +0.1204, creates a margin of seven or more.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Five-game Rutgers offense averages +0.1342 EPA/play and .4822 success rate; Maryland's six-game offense averages only +0.0713 EPA/play and .4632 success.
    • Rutgers' offense faces Maryland's +0.0345 defensive EPA/play allowed, while Maryland's offense faces Rutgers' weaker +0.1204 allowed mark; the matchup differential favors Rutgers.
    • Most likely loss: Maryland's stronger PFF defense and home field turn Rutgers' recent offensive volatility into another low-output game, producing a Maryland cover.
  4. Rutgers Scarlet Knights to win2 models agree
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, D1 Winner
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Rutgers current-season offense leads Maryland in EPA/play (.1342 to .0713) and success rate (.4822 to .4615).
    • Rutgers averages 30.0 points across five games versus Maryland's 28.0 across six; the offensive profile is stronger than the underdog price implies.
    • Maryland's defensive EPA profile is better: +.0345 allowed versus Rutgers' +.1204, with home field also favoring the Terrapins.
    D1 Winner
    • Rutgers leads 2026 team-game EPA/play (.134 vs .071) and success rate (.482 vs .461).
    • Dylan Lonergan was confirmed full-go and the starter by Greg Schiano after returning from injury.
    • Maryland owns the stronger defense in the sample: .0345 EPA allowed/play versus Rutgers' .1204.
  5. Over 56.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated combined possessions near 21, explosive rates 12.5% Rutgers and 12.9% Maryland, and pooled current game totals average 61.5.
    • Most likely loss: Maryland and Rutgers reproduce their recent low-output games against stronger defenses, finishing below 57 points.
  6. Under 56 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession factor: current combined average is 138.9 plays versus 145.8 in 2025; forecast gusts reach 28 mph with showers possible.
    • Full coverage: both Big Ten/FBS, five and six current advanced rows, and Lonergan/Washington are named starters; gap 5.05p < 9.0p cap.
    • Most likely loss: turnovers or short fields create points despite wind-suppressed possessions.
Show all 19 picks
  1. KJ Duff under 6.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on BetOnline

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Touch share was 35.1%, 32.0%, and 30.0% of Rutgers pass attempts over 3 games (CV 7.9%); yards/target rose 6.6 to 13.0 as share fell.
    • Routes stayed 93.2%, 90.0%, and 96.4%; Rutgers pass attempts fell 37 to 25 to 20, shrinking the recent opportunity pie.
    • Jourdin Houston is Game Time Decision, which could concentrate targets on Duff if Houston sits.
  2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 1st-half winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rutgers averaged +0.134 offensive EPA/play and 48.2% success over five 2026 games; Maryland averaged -0.007 and 43.3%.
    • Rutgers averaged 2.63 points/drive versus Maryland's 1.70, supporting a stronger opening scoring script.
    • QB gate cleared: Dylan Lonergan is reported as Rutgers' starter, and live game information lists Maryland's Malik Washington as starter.
    • Five-game samples mix uneven opponents and provide no first-half-specific splits; EPA may not transfer cleanly to the opening script.
  3. Maryland −6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pairing supplies 2 of 3 measures; both raw sides are substantial.
    • The book-level measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
  4. Rutgers Scarlet Knights +7.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rutgers +7.5 wins when Maryland wins by exactly 7; adjacent Rutgers +7 pushes at exactly 7.
    • CFB historical home-margin-7 frequency is 4.243% (475 completed regular/postseason games).
    • ProphetX Rutgers +7.5 is 59.35c versus Rutgers +7 at 56.52c, only a 2.83-point premium.
    • Broad historical CFB margin distribution is not a matchup projection; current-team scoring is intentionally not modeled.
  5. Total points under 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's captured full-game total is 56, below ProphetX's 57 rung.
    • Maryland's defense allows +0.0345 EPA/play versus Rutgers +0.1729, while Maryland's PFF defense grades 78.2 overall, 81.6 pass rush and 79.2 run defense.
    • Rutgers plays slowly at 29.33 seconds per play and Maryland's offense is only +0.0713 EPA/play; fresh Yahoo reporting says Dylan Lonergan is this week's starter, with Malik Washington the Maryland starter in the official preview.
    • Most likely loss: Rutgers' +0.1932 offensive EPA/play meets Maryland's fast 16.54-second pace and the weak Rutgers defense creates a 58-plus shootout.
  6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights spread +7
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rutgers averages +0.134 EPA/play and a 0.482 success rate; Maryland is at +0.071 EPA/play and 0.461 success rate.
    • QB gate cleared: Dylan Lonergan was confirmed as Rutgers' starter in the Oct. 14 game preview; Maryland's latest pass-attempt leader is Malik Washington, listed in the official game center.
    • Most likely loss: Maryland's stronger defense (+0.0345 defensive EPA allowed/play versus Rutgers +0.1204) and home field create an eight-point-or-greater win.
  7. Game total over 57
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game Rutgers and six-game Maryland samples combine for 0.134 and 0.071 offensive EPA/play.
    • Both offenses carry positive PROE: Rutgers +12.0%, Maryland +17.9%; explosive rates are 12.5% and 12.9%.
    • Rutgers averages 29.30 seconds/play; Maryland's usable tempo rows remain fast enough to support possessions despite malformed entries.
    • Most likely loss: Maryland's 78.2 PFF defense and Rutgers' recent 15-point output suppress the game below 58.
  8. Rutgers +6
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rutgers averages +0.064 offensive EPA/play versus Maryland’s -0.007 across current-season FBS games.
    • Rutgers’ .455 offensive success rate exceeds Maryland’s .433; six points adds protection in a matchup priced near one score.
    • Pinnacle is -6 at -106 on both sides; ProphetX gives Rutgers +6 at -103, a modestly better venue price.
    • Maryland’s defense is materially better by current FBS defensive EPA allowed: +0.149 versus Rutgers’ +0.278; home field also favors Maryland.
  9. Maryland Terrapins first-half spread NO 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,584 regular FBS finals from 2024, 26 give SD_full 15.774; square-root half scaling gives SD_1H 11.15, not 7.89.
    • Pinnacle has Maryland -6 at -106 full game; half-scale mean +3.0, trimmed to roughly +2.8 for 28-mph gusts and 11% rain risk.
    • At the exact 2.5 rung, N(+2.8, 11.15) gives Maryland YES 51.1%, hence NO 48.9% versus a 45¢ executable price.
    • The 3-point mass sits immediately above 2.5 and directly threatens NO; the normal model smooths discrete halftime scoring.
  10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights +5.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair margin: Maryland +3.5; the executable +5.5 gives Rutgers a 2.0-point model edge.
    • Rutgers' 2026 FBS offense has been more efficient by EPA/PPA and success rate than Maryland's offense; FCS games excluded.
    • Latest FBS margins: Rutgers -15.3 per game over three; Maryland -35.0 per game over three, a meaningful recent-form gap.
    • Rutgers has only four 2026 FBS games, so one 2025 FBS bridge is used; this is a thin-data, low-conviction estimate.
  11. Dorian Fleming under 30.5 receiving yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 30.5 landed in 4 of Fleming’s 6 2026 appearances (66.7%).
    • His two most recent results were 4 and 15 receiving yards.
    • FanDuel offers -112 (52.8% implied); model win probability is 64%, an 11-point margin.
    • Two of six games cleared 30.5, including 42 and 72 yards; the distribution is volatile.
  12. First-half total over 27.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 drive ledger before kickoff: Rutgers 57 drives in 5 games and Maryland 79 in 6 project 12.29 combined first-half drives.
    • Valid pace averages are Rutgers 29.30 seconds/play and Maryland 23.14 after excluding Maryland's malformed sub-10-second entries; weather fields are null, so no weather cut is applied.
    • First-half drive-result estimate is 2.30 Rutgers points/drive and 2.40 Maryland; 12.29 × 2.35 × 1.0815 gives a 31.3-point model projection.
    • No independent sharp first-half total exists; this same-rung reference is derived from the full-game total, so this is a LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
  13. Game total under 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection, SHARP REFERENCE: L5 scoring averages are Rutgers 30.0 and Maryland 21.2, a combined 51.2 points versus ProphetX's 57.
    • Projection: Maryland is 1-4 in its last five with 16, 23, 3, 26 and 38 points; Rutgers scored 15, 58, 35, 21 and 21.
    • Pinnacle's captured main total is 56; ProphetX gives the under an extra point at nearly the same market price.
    • Maryland and Rutgers defenses have allowed a combined 71.4 points per game over these five-game samples.

Questions

Who won Rutgers vs. Maryland?

The Rutgers won 37–30 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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