South Dakota vs. Murray StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRoy Stewart Stadium
South Dakota5–2
48–20Final
Murray State1–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 0 | 14 | 13 | 21 | 48 |
| MURR | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-4 on this game · −100% return
- South Dakota Coyotes spread −28.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): adjusted SRS margin 30.2 versus the 28.5-point line, a 6.0% projection edge.
- Team grades favor South Dakota 92.2 to 69.4 overall, including a 90.6 to 70.6 defensive edge.
- SRS has no rating timestamp, and its 3-point home adjustment is an estimate rather than a published game projection.
Long Way Home- South Dakota averages a +12.9 margin versus Murray State's -25.8, a 38.7-point gap before home adjustment.
- South Dakota owns +0.314 EPA/play, 0.530 success rate, and 37.9 points per game; Murray is -0.112, 0.405, and 14.8.
- Most likely loss: South Dakota wins but fails to separate, while Murray's home-field advantage enables a backdoor cover inside 29.
- Game total under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Dakota owns +0.324 EPA/play and 48.9% success; Murray is -0.056 and 38.0%.
- Murray’s defense allows +0.253 EPA/play; South Dakota’s offense has 1.355 explosiveness and should control field position.
- Fox’s current game listing names Austyn Modrzewski and Jim Ogle as the starting quarterbacks; Ogle has 412 yards, 3 TD, 4 INT.
- South Dakota’s explosive offense can threaten 40 points alone, and turnovers could create short fields.
- Murray State Racers game total under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Murray State averages 14.8 points and -0.112 offensive EPA/play across six 2026 games.
- Murray State's .405 offensive success rate and recent outputs of 28, 6, and 0 support a lower-scoring underdog profile.
- Pinnacle has the same 60.5 under at -124; ProphetX offers -106, a materially better price.
- South Dakota averages 37.9 points with a .314 offensive EPA/play and can clear much of the number alone.
Questions
Who won South Dakota vs. Murray State?
The South Dakota won 48–20 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.