Stephen F. Austin vs. NichollsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJohn L. Guidry Stadium
Stephen F. Austin6–0
56–0Final
Nicholls2–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEP | 14 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 56 |
| NICH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 50.5 50¢
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Projected total 54.3 versus 50.5: 7.5% projection edge, above the 5% gate.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +25% return
- Game total over 50.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total 54.3 versus 50.5: 7.5% projection edge, above the 5% gate.
- Recent 12 team totals clear 50.5 nine times (75%); recent-five proxy is 7/10 (70%).
- SFA offense: +0.0558 EPA/play; Nicholls defense allows +0.176 EPA/play, a strong scoring matchup.
- Nicholls scored only 2 points in its latest game, and SFA allows -0.1195 defensive EPA/play.
- Nicholls Colonels to win−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks to win+9%Won
Taken at 92¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live state: SFA leads 14-0 with 3:06 left in Q1; Nicholls already turned over on downs at the SFA 7.
- Six-game efficiency gap: SFA +0.167 offensive EPA/play and -0.121 defensive EPA allowed versus Nicholls -0.119 and +0.127.
- Season scoring profile favors SFA 38.3 points scored and 15.2 allowed versus Nicholls 16.3 and 38.8; my win estimate is 97%.
- The 14-point lead is extremely early; more than 50 minutes remain for turnover and special-teams variance.
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks spread −22.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stephen F. Austin is 5-0 with a +25.6 average margin in the board's recent-form sample; Nicholls is 1-4 at -33.8.
- Recent team-game data shows SFA positive offensive EPA in four of five games and Nicholls negative offensive EPA in four of five.
- Directional read is coherent: SFA's recent efficiency and margin profile supports a decisive road win rather than a low-scoring upset script.
- Most likely loss: SFA wins but Nicholls scores a late backdoor touchdown inside 22.5.
Questions
Who won Stephen F. Austin vs. Nicholls?
The Stephen F. Austin won 56–0 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.