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Troy vs. LouisianaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalOur Lady of Lourdes Stadium
Troy3–2
6–33Final
Louisiana4–2
Score by period
Team1234T
TROY00606
UL7127733

Top model pick, graded

Won

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns −3.5 46¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: The 45.5c graded global price is actionable and below the sportsbook reference near Louisiana -3.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-7 on this game · +20% return

  1. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns to win5 models agree
    +68%Won

    Taken at −146 on FanDuel

    5 modelsD1 Winner, Saturday Board Pairs +3
    Why 5 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Efficiency family: Louisiana's recent per-play EPA profile is stronger defensively (-0.133 allowed/play versus Troy's +0.035), with team grades 84.8 to 76.4.
    • QB/injury family: Lunch Winfield's 81-of-112 passing (72.3%) season sample and 398 rushing yards/8 rushing TDs give Louisiana the steadier dual-threat profile.
    • Louisiana is down linebacker Conor McPherson and safety Collin Jacob; neither is a confirmed CB/Edge cluster override, but defensive depth remains a concern.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Current FBS sample: Louisiana has +0.1398 EPA/play and .4838 success rate across six games; Troy has +0.1020 EPA/play and .4788 success across five.
    • Defensive mismatch: Troy allows +0.0354 EPA/play, while Louisiana allows -0.1838; Louisiana also owns the slightly higher explosive rate, .1321 to .1263.
    • Most likely loss: Troy's efficient recent offense keeps the game within one score or wins outright in a matchup priced only Louisiana -2.
    Key Number CFB
    • Louisiana’s six-game offense EPA/play is +0.1398 versus Troy’s +0.1020; defense allowed is -0.1838 versus +0.0354.
    • PFF 2026 overall grades favor Louisiana 84.9, 76.4, with a 90.6, 76.8 coverage edge.
    • Most likely loss: Troy’s passing efficiency, explosives, or turnovers produce an outright road upset.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 averages favor Louisiana in defensive EPA allowed, -0.133 versus Troy's +0.063, a 0.196-play gap.
    • Louisiana also leads offensive EPA/play .114 to .092; success rates are nearly even (.470 Troy, .470 Louisiana), making defense the differentiator.
    • Troy has the higher FBS explosive-play rate, 13.0% versus Louisiana's 11.3%, creating a road upset path through big plays.
  2. Game total over 49.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB HunterV2
    • 52.5-point scoring baseline from blended 2026 offense/defense results: Louisiana 29.5/21.5, Troy 28.0/24.0.
    • Louisiana's last-six offense EPA/play is +0.1398; Troy's defense allowed +0.0377 EPA/play.
    • Outdoor forecast reports roughly 15 mph wind; a stronger or sustained wind could suppress explosive passing.
    Long Way Home
    • 51.5-point opponent-defense blend: Louisiana projects 26.75 and Troy 24.75 from current offense/points-allowed profiles.
    • Louisiana averages 29.5 points and +0.140 offensive EPA/play; Troy averages 28.0 and +0.102 EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana's -0.184 defensive EPA suppresses Troy and the game finishes at 49 or fewer.
  3. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns −3.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 45.5c graded global price is actionable and below the sportsbook reference near Louisiana -3.
    • Louisiana's defense is strong recently, but the team lost 31-32 last week; late-game variance can erase a cover.
  4. Over 49.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED Tier 2: about 21 adjusted combined possessions, roughly 148 combined current plays, and combined pace near 28.7 seconds/play support the Over; recent PPD averages are Louisiana 2.65 and Troy 2.32.
    • Most likely loss: one offense stalls in the red zone and the game finishes at 49 points or fewer.
  5. Game total over 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current six-game efficiency read: Louisiana posts +0.1398 EPA/play and .4838 success; Troy posts +0.0274 and .4657 in its five-game current sample.
    • Scoring baseline is 29.5 Louisiana points and 28.0 Troy points per game; both offenses retain positive explosive rates (.1321 and .1155).
    • Tempo supports possessions: Troy averages 23.34 seconds/play with approximately +.059 PROE; Louisiana averages 29.47 seconds/play with near-neutral +.003 PROE.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana's strong -0.1838 defensive EPA/play allowed controls Troy and the game lands below 48.
  6. Troy Trojans to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are Troy 3 and Louisiana 3; the levels measure is neutral, but thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total qualifies on two measures with substantial raw stakes.
    • Backing Troy Trojans, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • REFERENCE only; there is no independent order-flow dataset confirming these queues.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −4
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisiana’s 2026 profile leads Troy in offense EPA/play (.1398 vs .1020) and defense EPA allowed (-.1838 vs +.0354).
    • PFF’s latest 2026 card favors Louisiana 84.8, 76.4 overall, including a 90.7, 76.8 coverage edge.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana wins by 1, 3; exact 3-point margins occurred 1,022/11,194, while exact 4 pushes this ticket.
  2. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns first-half spread over 7.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RAW Kalshi contract re-read at 0.52 is a fraction, i.e. a 52¢ contract; the venue confirmation showed 52.0% for this side.
    • live 7-0 Louisiana at 4:06 of Q1; matchup and remaining-drive blend projects an 11.0-point halftime margin.
    • Own 2024-26 regular-season signed home-margin SD is 22.89 over 2,623 games; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 16.19, not 11.45.
    • this is a model/venue-self-reference lean, capped at LEAN.
  3. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns first-half spread over 4.5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Louisiana -3 scales to a +1.5 first-half anchor.
    • LEAN only: same-rung reference is derived, not an independent first-half sharp quote; no RECOMMENDED sizing.
  4. First-half total over 23.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 77.8 Troy plays at 27.80 sec/play and 70.5 Louisiana plays at 29.47; blended pace is 28.59 sec/play.
    • Drive ledger: 62 Troy and 68 Louisiana drives over 11 games gives 23.73 full-game drives; 11.87 first-half drives, reduced 5% for 25-mph gusts, gives 11.27.
    • The 5% gust possession cut is estimated; wind could be lighter, while short fields and turnovers can overwhelm drive-count math.
  5. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −3
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures agree; raw stakes are large enough that a tiny order is unlikely to explain the read.
    • Directional check: backing Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • No independent projection edge is being claimed; the venue self-reference may reflect stale, correlated, or strategic orders rather than predictive information.
  6. Game total over 50
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are over 3 and under 3; the levels measure is neutral, while thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total supplies the qualifying two-measure read.
    • Backing over 50, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. The spread board did not clear this test and remains LEAN.
    • REFERENCE only; the queue imbalance is not an independent statistical expectation of scoring.
  7. Game total under 49
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 sample pace is moderate: Troy 27.80 seconds/play, Louisiana 29.47; combined tempo does not force a shootout.
    • Louisiana's -0.184 defensive EPA/play allowed and 82.1 PFF defense offset Troy's weaker +0.035 defense.
    • QB gate cleared: Goose Crowder and Lunch Winfield led latest pass attempts; live preview expects both starters, with no QB decision.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana's 29.5 and Troy's 28.0 scoring averages combine near 57.5, above this line.

Questions

Who won Troy vs. Louisiana?

The Louisiana won 33–6 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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