UC Davis vs. Southern UtahFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalEccles Coliseum
UC Davis4–2
17–38Final
Southern Utah2–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| SOUT | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 38 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSouthern Utah Thunderbirds to win 38¢
Why Drift likes it: Model 40.0%: near-even offense EPA (.136 SU vs .132 UCD) plus Southern Utah home field.
DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · +5% return
- Southern Utah Thunderbirds to win+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Model 40.0%: near-even offense EPA (.136 SU vs .132 UCD) plus Southern Utah home field.
- Both teams have six current-season games and equal two-week rest entering this matchup.
- Most likely loss: UC Davis's stronger defensive EPA allowed (.176 vs .217) and success rate (48.6% vs 46.1%) travel well.
Long Way Home- Southern Utah rates 4.2 SRS points better than UC Davis (-27.8 vs -32.0).
- Southern Utah is home, while ProphetX prices the Aggies as a 63.5% implied favorite.
- UC Davis owns the better current defense: 0.176 EPA allowed versus Southern Utah's 0.217.
- Game total over 65.5−100%Lost
Taken at +107 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The teams' recent games average 72.3 total points for UC Davis and 67.5 for Southern Utah.
- Recent combined efficiency is explosive: both teams average roughly 15.3% explosive plays, while their defenses allow positive EPA per play.
- UC Davis' 88.2 PFF defensive grade is materially better than Southern Utah's 72.9 and can suppress the home offense.
- UC Davis Aggies −4.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UC Davis owns the efficiency profile: 90.6 PFF overall and 88.2 defense versus Southern Utah's 76.1 and 72.9.
- UC Davis has the stronger confirmed quarterback production: Cleeland 14 TD and 4 INT versus Burns 8 TD and 6 INT.
- Both efficiency and QB/injury families support UC Davis; FCS market signal is down-weighted after the line moved from -5.5 to -4.5.
- Southern Utah has home field and both teams had a 14-day rest interval.
- UC Davis Aggies to win−100%Lost
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- QB gate cleared by latest box leaders plus official previews: Treynor Cleeland leads UC Davis, and Southern Utah's official preview identifies Will Burns.
- Southern Utah's offense has a slightly higher 2026 EPA/play (0.1358 versus 0.1321), and home field plus a bye can narrow the gap.
Questions
Who won UC Davis vs. Southern Utah?
The Southern Utah won 38–17 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.