UT Rio Grande Valley vs. Incarnate WordFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalGayle and Tom Benson Stadium
UT Rio Grande Valley3-3
16–41Final
Incarnate Word2-4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
| INCA | 10 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 41 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal points over 53.5 51¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: Season scoring averages are 24.17 UTRGV and 34.17 UIW, a 58.33-point baseline before matchup adjustment.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −35% return
- UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- SRS rates UTRGV 7.3 points stronger than Incarnate Word in the current 2026 snapshot (-27.8 vs -35.1).
- Six-game EPA profile favors UTRGV defensively: -0.08 EPA allowed per play versus UIW's +0.13.
- The market moved from UIW -3 to -3.5, with the move against UTRGV potentially reflecting information absent from the warehouse.
Long Way Home- UTRGV's recent defensive EPA allowed was -0.19 and -0.17, while Incarnate Word allowed 0.29 and 0.52 in two of its last three games.
- Recent form favors the dog: UTRGV is 2-3 with a -1.6 margin over its last five; Incarnate Word is 1-4 at -12.2.
- Most likely loss: Incarnate Word's 34.2-point season scoring average produces a four-point-or-more home win.
- UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair spread is UTRGV +2.0; the +3.5 market offers a 5.5-point cushion.
- UTRGV allows -0.08 EPA/play versus UIW allowing +0.13, the matchup's largest efficiency gap.
- UTRGV averages 24.2 points scored and 18.2 allowed; UIW averages 34.2 scored but 34.0 allowed.
- UIW has home field and the stronger offense by EPA and scoring average.
- Total points over 53.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages are 24.17 UTRGV and 34.17 UIW, a 58.33-point baseline before matchup adjustment.
- UIW allows 34.00 points and +0.13 defensive EPA/play; that vulnerability offsets UTRGV's stronger -0.08 defensive EPA allowed.
- Key-number density favors the rung: exact totals were 54 (210 games) and 55 (425), so over 53.5 captures the dense 54, 55 band.
- Most likely loss: UTRGV's defense repeats its recent form and UIW fails to reach 30, leaving the game at 53 or fewer.
- UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros spread +3−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UTRGV defense allowed -0.08 EPA/play versus UIW allowing +0.13; the 0.21-play defensive gap shifts the margin toward the dog.
- QB gate cleared: latest box leaders were Aidan Jakobsohn (37 attempts) and Emmett Brown (39); same-day Fox live-game coverage listed both quarterbacks.
- Most likely loss: UIW’s 34.2 points per game and home field produce a win by four or more.
- UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UTRGV's six-game defense posts -0.08 EPA/play allowed versus Incarnate Word's +0.13, a 0.21 EPA/play defensive gap.
- UTRGV is 3-3 with a +6.0 recent average margin; Incarnate Word is 2-4 at only +0.2 in the same six-game form sample.
- My matchup estimate gives UTRGV a 46% win chance: the defense and form are stronger than the market's home-favorite framing, despite the road setting.
- Most likely loss: Incarnate Word's 34.2 points per game and +0.07 offensive EPA overwhelm UTRGV's otherwise better defense.
Questions
Who won UT Rio Grande Valley vs. Incarnate Word?
Incarnate Word won 41-16 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.