Valparaiso vs. San DiegoFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTorero Stadium
Valparaiso3–3
13–38Final
San Diego2–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALP | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| SAN | 15 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 38 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame under 51.5 total points −105
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Valparaiso’s defense allowed -0.036 EPA/play; San Diego’s offense averaged only +0.064 EPA/play.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −67% return
- Valparaiso Beacons spread +6−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- PFF card: Valparaiso grades 85.9 overall and 86.5 defense versus San Diego at 73.9 overall and 62.4 defense.
- Current EPA form shifts the mean toward Valpo: San Diego allows +0.292 defensive EPA/play, while Valparaiso allows -0.036; recent margins are +8.5 versus -14.3.
- Most likely loss: San Diego’s +0.064 offensive EPA/play and 13.0% explosive rate create a home win by seven or more.
Long Way Home- Valparaiso's five-game profile is +1.0 average margin; San Diego is -14.3 across six games.
- San Diego has allowed +0.292 defensive EPA/play, while Valparaiso's defense is at -0.036; the matchup is less one-sided than the moneyline suggests.
- Most likely loss: San Diego's explosive offense creates enough separation while Valparaiso's negative -0.088 offensive EPA/play prevents a backdoor cover.
- Game under 51.5 total points+95%Won
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Valparaiso’s defense allowed -0.036 EPA/play; San Diego’s offense averaged only +0.064 EPA/play.
- Valparaiso used a deliberate style and won time of possession by nearly 14 minutes against Drake.
- Both teams had seven days’ rest; no short-week tempo boost is present.
- San Diego’s defense allowed +0.292 EPA/play, creating a path for Valparaiso to score efficiently.
- Valparaiso Beacons spread +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B): estimated cover probability 61% versus 55.0% breakeven, a +6.0-point projection edge.
- Valparaiso owns a +1.0 average margin over its last five; San Diego is -10.8 over its last five.
- Valparaiso's recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.036 and its PFF defense grade is 86.5, versus San Diego's +0.292 and 62.4.
- FanDuel moved from Valparaiso +4.5 to +7.5, while the main market moved toward San Diego, opposing this position.
- Valparaiso Beacons +7−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on BetMGM
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 0.1918 opponent-adjusted defensive signal for San Diego versus -0.0717 for Valparaiso; clear underdog defensive edge.
- San Diego allows 41.3 points per game; Valparaiso allows 23.0 across current-season charted games.
- PFF grades: Valparaiso defense 86.5 and coverage 90.5 versus San Diego defense 62.4 and coverage 66.0.
- Market moved from San Diego -5.5 to -6/-7.5; unexplained information may be absent from FCS feeds.
- Valparaiso Beacons to win−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Valparaiso allows 0.036 EPA/play and 23.0 points per game; San Diego allows 0.292 EPA/play and 41.3 points per game.
- Valparaiso's recent scoring margin is +1.0 over its last five; San Diego's is -10.8 over its last five.
- San Diego's offense averages 27.0 points and its 0.130 explosive-play rate can overwhelm Valparaiso early.
Questions
Who won Valparaiso vs. San Diego?
The San Diego won 38–13 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.