Western Illinois vs. Southeast Missouri StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHouck Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEST | 10 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 30 |
| SOUT | 10 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 40 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-8 on this game · −100% return
- Game total under 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Kickoff LedgerWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Books center the game total around 52.5, 53, giving the 55.5 Under a three-point cushion versus the reference line.
- Western Illinois averages 31.8 points with positive 0.126 EPA/play; Southeast Missouri averages 22.5 with negative -0.034 EPA/play, supporting a modest under lean at this inflated rung.
Kickoff Ledger- WIU averages 31.8 points and SEMO 22.5; their combined season scoring average is 54.3, below the 55.5 market total.
- SEMO's season offense is -0.034 EPA/play with a 42.4% success rate; its 22.5 points per game is the weaker side of the matchup.
- SEMO just scored 38 points with Ragland throwing three touchdowns, and WIU's defense has faced explosive opponents.
- Western Illinois Leathernecks spread +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Season efficiency favors WIU: +0.126 EPA/play offense versus SEMO's -0.034; WIU success rate 45.9% versus 42.4%.
- WIU's defense allowed -0.076 EPA/play, while SEMO allowed -0.020; the matchup is closer than the market's six-point home tax.
- WIU's recent two-game offensive EPA is -0.014, while SEMO's is +0.126; the latest form points against the full-season edge.
Long Way Home- Western Illinois is +9.0 per game versus Southeast Missouri State at -2.3 through six games; the gap exceeds a normal home-field adjustment.
- Western Illinois has +0.126 offensive EPA/play and -0.076 defensive EPA allowed, versus Southeast Missouri State at -0.034 and -0.020.
- Most likely loss: Southeast Missouri State's home field and its 38-27 win over Lindenwood translate into a 7-plus-point Redhawks victory.
- Game total under 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on BetMGM
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (Grade B): qualifying medium-edge total play.
- Blended projection is 49.5 points versus the 52.5 line, a 5.7% projection gap.
- The Redhawks’ latest game totaled 65 points, showing meaningful offensive volatility.
Long Way Home- The teams' last-five scoring blend is approximately 49 points, below the 52.5 contract threshold.
- Last-five offensive EPA is asymmetric: Western Illinois +0.076/play, Southeast Missouri State -0.056/play; the weaker Redhawks offense supports the under.
- Most likely loss: Southeast Missouri State turns home-field opportunities into explosive scores and pushes the total beyond 52.5.
- Western Illinois Leathernecks +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- WIU is +9.0 in average margin through six games; SEMO is -2.3, yet SEMO is laying 6.5.
- Last-five offense EPA/play: WIU +0.0757 versus SEMO -0.0559; success rates are 43.2% versus 42.2%.
- Team grades favor WIU overall 86.4-80.6 and offensively 71.3-61.8; SEMO's defensive edge is smaller.
- No formal game-day depth-chart designation was published; current previews identify Kennedy McGill but do not explicitly state Saturday's starter.
- Western Illinois Leathernecks to win−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Western Illinois owns the better last-five scoring margin: +0.6 versus Southeast Missouri State's -3.2.
- Last-five offensive EPA favors Western Illinois: +0.076/play versus Southeast Missouri State's -0.056.
- Most likely loss: Southeast Missouri State's home-field edge and favorite-quality baseline overwhelm Western Illinois early.
Questions
Who won Western Illinois vs. Southeast Missouri State?
The Southeast Missouri State won 40–30 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.