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Wisconsin vs. UCLAFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRose Bowl
Wisconsin4-1
7–17Final
UCLA5-0
Score by period
Team1234T
WIS00707
UCLA370717

Top model pick, graded

Won

UCLA Bruins spread −1.5 49¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: RECOMMENDED Tier 2: load-bearing efficiency composite favors UCLA (net EPA/play +0.23 versus Wisconsin +0.20; success rate 48.2% versus 44.1%); home field and a cautious Ty Dieffenbach adjustment produce a modeled UCLA margin of about 3.1 with roughly 17-point SD.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-5 on this game · +10% return

  1. Game total under 42.52 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsTempo Gap, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Gap
    • Model fair total is 39.5: 21.6 projected drives at roughly 1.9 Wisconsin and 1.7 UCLA points per drive.
    • Wisconsin averages 63.8 plays; its defense allows 16.6 points per game, limiting possession and scoring upside.
    • Wisconsin's offense averages 0.22 EPA per play and 2.70 points per drive; efficient finishing can clear 42.5.
    Tempo Board
    • existing under 44.5 is retained; the main rung moved to 43, making under 42.5 a permitted same-side new-line add.
    • 2026 samples, five games each: valid pace averages 29.34 seconds/play for Wisconsin and 31.30 for UCLA; PROE is +7.0% and +1.1%.
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin’s positive PROE and both offenses’ roughly 13.5% explosive rates create 43 or more points.
  2. Wisconsin Badgers to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures agree: Wisconsin is thin at the quote but deeper behind it, with raw size well above a few hundred dollars.
    • Directional check: backing Wisconsin Badgers, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference only; the order-flow hypothesis could be wrong, stale, or driven by one participant despite the large totals.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Five-game 2026 sample: Wisconsin averages +0.22 EPA/play versus UCLA +0.16; PFF overall/defense grades favor Wisconsin 93.1/92.5 to 91.1/90.9.
    • UCLA's Nico Iamaleava is officially out; a same-day Daily Bruin report identifies backup Ty Dieffenbach as the expected replacement.
    • Most likely loss: UCLA's -0.08 average defensive EPA allowed holds Wisconsin down and home field produces a narrow Bruins win.
  3. UCLA Bruins spread −1.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED Tier 2: load-bearing efficiency composite favors UCLA (net EPA/play +0.23 versus Wisconsin +0.20; success rate 48.2% versus 44.1%); home field and a cautious Ty Dieffenbach adjustment produce a modeled UCLA margin of about 3.1 with roughly 17-point SD.
    • Most likely loss: UCLA's first start with Ty Dieffenbach is inefficient, allowing Wisconsin to win outright or lose by only one point.
  4. UCLA Bruins first-half spread over 3.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2022-26 FBS signed home-margin SD 22.54; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 15.94.
    • 2026 team data projects UCLA roughly +3.1 full game, or +1.55 at halftime; P(UCLA margin >3.5) is 45.1%.
    • College histogram shows ±3 margin mass at 421/4,339 (9.7%), larger than ±7 at 338 (7.8%); 3.5 is the key-number-adjacent rung.
    • UCLA's confirmed starter is backup Ty Dieffenbach; most 2026 efficiency data came with Nico Iamaleava, so the +1.55 mean may be overstated.
  5. UCLA Bruins to win
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B): clears the 70 fire bar with a qualifying edge.
    • UCLA is 5-0 with a +21.2 L5 scoring margin; Wisconsin is 4-1 with a +15.0 L5 margin.
    • The market eased from UCLA -135 to -122, improving entry price despite the model still favoring UCLA.
    • Nico Iamaleava is officially out; UCLA's replacement-quarterback uncertainty is the key risk.
  6. Wisconsin Badgers +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA: Wisconsin offense +0.20/play versus UCLA +0.07; both defenses grade positively.
    • PFF team grades favor Wisconsin 93.1, 91.1 overall and 92.5, 90.9 on defense.
    • UCLA's starting QB Nico Iamaleava is out; current reporting identifies backup Ty Dieffenbach as the starter.
    • UCLA is 5-0 at home/overall with a +21.2 recent-game scoring margin; Rose Bowl home advantage matters.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Total points over 42
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 42/42.5 rung gap contains only 141 exact-42 totals in 11,228 FBS regular/postseason games; that density is lower than key 44 mass (281).
    • 2026 five-game efficiency: Wisconsin +0.22 off EPA/play and 31.6 points per game; UCLA +0.16 and 39.2 points per game.
    • The lower ProphetX rung retains push protection at 42 while staying one point below the sharp 43 reference.
    • Most likely loss: UCLA’s replacement quarterback struggles and Wisconsin’s 92.5 PFF defense forces 42 or fewer points.
  2. Game total under 44.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UCLA allows -0.08 defensive EPA/play, while Wisconsin allows +0.02; UCLA's Nico Iamaleava is out and current reporting expects Ty Dieffenbach to start.
    • QB gate cleared: Colton Joseph led Wisconsin's latest passing box with 20 attempts and is the current game-center passing leader; both teams have five 2026 FBS rows.
    • Wisconsin's defense allows positive EPA/play, while UCLA averages 39.2 points; raw scoring and a short-field game script leave a clear over path.
  3. Wisconsin Badgers spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wisconsin posts +0.22 offensive EPA/play versus UCLA’s +0.16 through five 2026 games.
    • current game-day reporting confirms UCLA starter Nico Iamaleava is out and Ty Dieffenbach takes over; that personnel downgrade favors Wisconsin’s side.
    • captured Pinnacle main spread is UCLA -1.5; reference only, while the named edge is the quarterback-adjusted projection.
    • UCLA’s defense is materially better in the five-game sample: -0.08 EPA/play allowed versus Wisconsin’s +0.02.

Questions

Who won Wisconsin vs. UCLA?

UCLA won 17-7 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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